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Thread: My (Tentatively) Final U.S. Election Predictions

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    What gives you the impression that there is no enthusiasm gap? There are different sources that provide very different results on it.

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    My (Tentatively) Final U.S. Election Predictions

    Over the course of the last couple months or so, I've made two predictions concerning the outcome of the election on November 6th:

    First prediction (mid-September)

    Second prediction (end of September)

    Those were based on evidence from those respective points in the campaign. I wasn't yet factoring in things like Romney's impressive first debate performance and obviously not the impact of Hurricane Sandy upon this whole process (much of which still remains to be seen). However, at this late stage of the race, I feel confident enough to offer what I will tentatively call a final prediction. I may do some minor revisions on Monday based on how the weekend goes, but I'm confident enough now to forecast the basic outcome and the vast majority of outcomes overall. This time I will call every state, though, as I just mentioned, I may ultimately change one or two on Monday...we'll see.

    (Note: I've been doing these predictions regularly since the 2006 election cycle. Thus far I have ultimately been correct in more than 98% of said predictions. It's a certain boasting point that I have.)
    Nate? Nate Silvers, is that you? Heh.

    The problem with these predictions is that they are based on Obama getting the same wildly over the top tsunami-style numbers of voters to the voting booths tomorrow and yet that's unlikely to be the case because the enthusiasm for Obama simply isn't there in 2012.

    On the other hand every Republican capable of getting out and voting is going to vote for Romney simply to get Obama the hell out of the Oval Office. This is not 'a status quo cycle' because Republicans really are very motivated to vote this time . . . whereas Obama supporters simply do not have the same degree of enthusiasm for Obama in 2012 that they had in 2008.

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    Peter1469 (11-05-2012)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    What gives you the impression that there is no enthusiasm gap? There are different sources that provide very different results on it.
    You are absolutely correct Peter. There's simply no way that Obama supporters are as enthusiastic about Obama in 2012 as they were in 2008 and yet Romney supporters are very enthusiastic . . . to get Obama out of office, if nothing else. All by itself the Anybody But Obama political backlash on the Right had put Romney almost neck and neck with Obama after their national conventions and then the first presidential debate generated enthusiasm for Romney himself among ABO voters.

    So there is an enthusiasm gap -- which the pro-Obama press and most of the polling companies have been pretending doesn't exist.

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    Peter1469 (11-05-2012)

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    I don't recall the numbers, but the enthusiasm gap was something like 20 points higher than McCain and maybe 15 points higher than Obama's score.

    This was a few weeks ago though.
    my junk is ugly

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    There is nothing economically and financially in the world today that warrants enthusiasm .
    Why look for something that cannot exist sensibly in such circumstances ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carygrant View Post
    There is nothing economically and financially in the world today that warrants enthusiasm . Why look for something that cannot exist sensibly in such circumstances ?
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    Last edited by GrassrootsConservative; 11-06-2012 at 01:54 AM.
    7,500 Drones In U.S. Airspace Within 5 Years:
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...ss-drone-regs/

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZKKNSpV0ME
    :
    "We respect and have a whole bunch of safeguards in terms of how we conduct counter-terrorism operations outside of the United States. The rules outside of the United States are going to be different than the rules inside of the United States."
    - Barack Hussein Obama


    That means
    NO safeguards.

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    No. It looks like you are.
    Please note: verbage enclosed by < > indicates sarcasm

    "There's class war alright. But it's my class that's making the war. And we're winning it." - Warren Buffet

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    If there was more enthusiasm behind the Romney campaign as has been reported, consider that it's very possible that there could be a strong democratic response to that report be generating real enthusiasm for their President, in the effort to keep Mr. Romney out of office.
    Please note: verbage enclosed by < > indicates sarcasm

    "There's class war alright. But it's my class that's making the war. And we're winning it." - Warren Buffet

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    You can calculate til' the cows come home, but your gut is the telling mark. Mine has gone up and down and the down part was largely due to biased media reporting. When however I am in the streets I don't see the signs and stickers or tee-shirts for Obama like 4 years ago. The enthusiasm has waned. The callers on talk radio for Obama are down also by more than 50%. Now those die-hards are screaming and will till the day they die I guess, but my predictions, like everything I do, is from my gut reaction. I still hold for 300 EC votes for Romney...after the recount because Obama will not go down like a gentleman.



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    I think democrat optimism is based upon poor polling methods. The hope and change drunk is over. 2010 proved that, and nothing Obama has done since 2010 has been enough to get is base out in the numbers he would need to win...

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