User Tag List

+ Reply to Thread
Page 4 of 6 FirstFirst 123456 LastLast
Results 31 to 40 of 59

Thread: My (Tentatively) Final U.S. Election Predictions

  1. #31
    tPF Moderator
    Original Ranter
    V.I.P
    Points: 219,986, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 99.7%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Discussion Ender
    Peter1469's Avatar Moderator Representative
    Karma
    49501
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Northern VA
    Posts
    46,950
    Points
    219,986
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    20,389
    Thanked 14,974x in 10,922 Posts
    Mentioned
    974 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    545
    What gives you the impression that there is no enthusiasm gap? There are different sources that provide very different results on it.

  2. #32
    Points: 4,508, Level: 15
    Level completed: 92%, Points required for next Level: 42
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Social1000 Experience Points1 year registered
    Cedric's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    1370
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    420
    Points
    4,508
    Level
    15
    Thanks Given
    75
    Thanked 268x in 160 Posts
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    16
    My (Tentatively) Final U.S. Election Predictions

    Over the course of the last couple months or so, I've made two predictions concerning the outcome of the election on November 6th:

    First prediction (mid-September)

    Second prediction (end of September)

    Those were based on evidence from those respective points in the campaign. I wasn't yet factoring in things like Romney's impressive first debate performance and obviously not the impact of Hurricane Sandy upon this whole process (much of which still remains to be seen). However, at this late stage of the race, I feel confident enough to offer what I will tentatively call a final prediction. I may do some minor revisions on Monday based on how the weekend goes, but I'm confident enough now to forecast the basic outcome and the vast majority of outcomes overall. This time I will call every state, though, as I just mentioned, I may ultimately change one or two on Monday...we'll see.

    (Note: I've been doing these predictions regularly since the 2006 election cycle. Thus far I have ultimately been correct in more than 98% of said predictions. It's a certain boasting point that I have.)
    Nate? Nate Silvers, is that you? Heh.

    The problem with these predictions is that they are based on Obama getting the same wildly over the top tsunami-style numbers of voters to the voting booths tomorrow and yet that's unlikely to be the case because the enthusiasm for Obama simply isn't there in 2012.

    On the other hand every Republican capable of getting out and voting is going to vote for Romney simply to get Obama the hell out of the Oval Office. This is not 'a status quo cycle' because Republicans really are very motivated to vote this time . . . whereas Obama supporters simply do not have the same degree of enthusiasm for Obama in 2012 that they had in 2008.

  3. The Following User Says Thank You to Cedric For This Useful Post:

    Peter1469 (11-05-2012)

  4. #33
    Points: 4,508, Level: 15
    Level completed: 92%, Points required for next Level: 42
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Social1000 Experience Points1 year registered
    Cedric's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    1370
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    420
    Points
    4,508
    Level
    15
    Thanks Given
    75
    Thanked 268x in 160 Posts
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    16
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    What gives you the impression that there is no enthusiasm gap? There are different sources that provide very different results on it.
    You are absolutely correct Peter. There's simply no way that Obama supporters are as enthusiastic about Obama in 2012 as they were in 2008 and yet Romney supporters are very enthusiastic . . . to get Obama out of office, if nothing else. All by itself the Anybody But Obama political backlash on the Right had put Romney almost neck and neck with Obama after their national conventions and then the first presidential debate generated enthusiasm for Romney himself among ABO voters.

    So there is an enthusiasm gap -- which the pro-Obama press and most of the polling companies have been pretending doesn't exist.

  5. The Following User Says Thank You to Cedric For This Useful Post:

    Peter1469 (11-05-2012)

  6. #34
    Original Ranter
    Points: 171,968, Level: 98
    Level completed: 58%, Points required for next Level: 1,682
    Overall activity: 99.4%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second Class50000 Experience PointsOverdriveVeteran
    Awards:
    Most Popular
    Captain Obvious's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    72268
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    28,472
    Points
    171,968
    Level
    98
    Thanks Given
    8,483
    Thanked 9,756x in 7,099 Posts
    Mentioned
    404 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    754
    I don't recall the numbers, but the enthusiasm gap was something like 20 points higher than McCain and maybe 15 points higher than Obama's score.

    This was a few weeks ago though.
    my junk is ugly

  7. #35
    Points: 5,734, Level: 17
    Level completed: 98%, Points required for next Level: 16
    Overall activity: 49.0%
    Achievements:
    3 months registered5000 Experience Points
    Carygrant's Avatar Banned
    Karma
    -4125
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Location
    england
    Posts
    3,927
    Points
    5,734
    Level
    17
    Thanks Given
    257
    Thanked 281x in 245 Posts
    Mentioned
    14 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    0
    There is nothing economically and financially in the world today that warrants enthusiasm .
    Why look for something that cannot exist sensibly in such circumstances ?

  8. #36
    Points: 58,825, Level: 59
    Level completed: 24%, Points required for next Level: 1,525
    Overall activity: 29.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialOverdrive1 year registered50000 Experience Points
    GrassrootsConservative's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    12391
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Alliance, NE
    Posts
    10,304
    Points
    58,825
    Level
    59
    Thanks Given
    6,157
    Thanked 2,849x in 2,132 Posts
    Mentioned
    62 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    136
    Quote Originally Posted by Carygrant View Post
    There is nothing economically and financially in the world today that warrants enthusiasm . Why look for something that cannot exist sensibly in such circumstances ?
    Name:  Spongebob_39f89a_963260.jpg
Views: 5
Size:  38.7 KB
    Last edited by GrassrootsConservative; 11-06-2012 at 01:54 AM.


  9. #37
    Original Ranter
    V.I.P
    Points: 39,335, Level: 48
    Level completed: 50%, Points required for next Level: 815
    Overall activity: 9.0%
    Achievements:
    Social25000 Experience PointsVeteran
    bladimz's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    9863
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Parkerford, PA
    Posts
    6,621
    Points
    39,335
    Level
    48
    Thanks Given
    2,438
    Thanked 1,495x in 1,145 Posts
    Mentioned
    330 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    108
    No. It looks like you are.
    Please note: verbage enclosed by < > indicates sarcasm

    "There's class war alright. But it's my class that's making the war. And we're winning it." - Warren Buffet

  10. #38
    Original Ranter
    V.I.P
    Points: 39,335, Level: 48
    Level completed: 50%, Points required for next Level: 815
    Overall activity: 9.0%
    Achievements:
    Social25000 Experience PointsVeteran
    bladimz's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    9863
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Parkerford, PA
    Posts
    6,621
    Points
    39,335
    Level
    48
    Thanks Given
    2,438
    Thanked 1,495x in 1,145 Posts
    Mentioned
    330 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    108
    If there was more enthusiasm behind the Romney campaign as has been reported, consider that it's very possible that there could be a strong democratic response to that report be generating real enthusiasm for their President, in the effort to keep Mr. Romney out of office.
    Please note: verbage enclosed by < > indicates sarcasm

    "There's class war alright. But it's my class that's making the war. And we're winning it." - Warren Buffet

  11. #39
    Points: 13,027, Level: 27
    Level completed: 42%, Points required for next Level: 523
    Overall activity: 33.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second Class3 months registered10000 Experience Points
    coolwalker's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    2069
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Norfolk, Virginia
    Posts
    2,642
    Points
    13,027
    Level
    27
    Thanks Given
    713
    Thanked 663x in 504 Posts
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    25
    You can calculate til' the cows come home, but your gut is the telling mark. Mine has gone up and down and the down part was largely due to biased media reporting. When however I am in the streets I don't see the signs and stickers or tee-shirts for Obama like 4 years ago. The enthusiasm has waned. The callers on talk radio for Obama are down also by more than 50%. Now those die-hards are screaming and will till the day they die I guess, but my predictions, like everything I do, is from my gut reaction. I still hold for 300 EC votes for Romney...after the recount because Obama will not go down like a gentleman.



  12. #40
    Points: 1,089, Level: 7
    Level completed: 47%, Points required for next Level: 161
    Overall activity: 14.0%
    Achievements:
    31 days registeredSocial1000 Experience Points
    Dispondent's Avatar Member
    Karma
    573
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Posts
    158
    Points
    1,089
    Level
    7
    Thanks Given
    28
    Thanked 52x in 38 Posts
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    8
    I think democrat optimism is based upon poor polling methods. The hope and change drunk is over. 2010 proved that, and nothing Obama has done since 2010 has been enough to get is base out in the numbers he would need to win...

+ Reply to Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts


Forum Topsite Critical Acclaim
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO