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Thread: My (Tentatively) Final U.S. Election Predictions

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dispondent View Post
    I think democrat optimism is based upon poor polling methods. The hope and change drunk is over. 2010 proved that, and nothing Obama has done since 2010 has been enough to get is base out in the numbers he would need to win...
    2010, you say? Isn't that the year that the Tea Party kids were voted into congress:

    Name:  GOP obs.jpg
Views: 25
Size:  21.1 KB

    Coincidence, you say? I think not.

    Not really any wonder why Obama was unable to accomplish much.
    Please note: verbage enclosed by < > indicates sarcasm

    "There's class war alright. But it's my class that's making the war. And we're winning it." - Warren Buffet

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by bladimz View Post
    2010, you say? Isn't that the year that the Tea Party kids were voted into congress:

    Attachment 898

    Coincidence, you say? I think not.

    Not really any wonder why Obama was unable to accomplish much.
    The scumbag did more damage in his first two years than any president in history, aside from LBJ or FDR. NOTHING was proposed in the next two years except for more of the same. He and his disgusting wife are done soiling the White House. Our national Nightmare is coming to an end.
    Count the F-bombs in my posts, and if you don't like them, kiss my lilly white ass.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Dickman View Post
    The scumbag did more damage in his first two years than any president in history, aside from LBJ or FDR. NOTHING was proposed in the next two years except for more of the same. He and his disgusting wife are done soiling the White House. Our national Nightmare is coming to an end.
    C'mon. Don't hold back; tell us how you really feel...
    He's damaged this country beyond that of any other president, and he did it without invading any countries, much less 2. Pretty damned impressive. Don't worry. 4 years from now, your nightmare will be over. And you can kiss Michelle good-bye.
    Please note: verbage enclosed by < > indicates sarcasm

    "There's class war alright. But it's my class that's making the war. And we're winning it." - Warren Buffet

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carygrant View Post
    There is nothing economically and financially in the world today that warrants enthusiasm .
    Why look for something that cannot exist sensibly in such circumstances ?
    Iceland show the way. They refused to cover banker debt with tax payer dollars. They prosecuted bankers and put them in jail, and they have bounced back. Don't reward failure/fraud with tax dollar bailouts.

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    Looks like Polly was more on than most on these forums. My only prediction, that whoever won would do so relatively modestly, turned out to be wrong.

    Nice going Polly!
    The things I tell you will not be wrong.


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    Let it be known that I was the only person on this entire message board to correctly predict that Obama would win re-election. I correctly predicted that Obama would win re-election, that Democrats would retain the Senate, that Republicans would retain the House, and that Republicans would gain at least one governorship. However, my state-by-state breakdown could have been more accurate. Namely, in the presidential race, I was off by three states: I had wrongly predicted that Colorado, Virginia, and Florida would go for Romney. I see where I made my error though. I was over-complicating things by trying to include estimates of early voting results in my projection of the winners in each state. For example, I saw an MSNBC report over the weekend indicating that an estimated 85% of Colorado likely voters had already cast their ballots and that Romney was favored in them. Therefore I predicted Romney would win Colorado for sure. I likewise looked at Virginia and Florida kind of expecting Romney to win because he was leading in the polls in those two states for much of October, when early voting was going on. In reality, if I had simply based my prediction on what the major, non-partisan, national-level polls from the last weekend before election day said, I would have correctly predicted the outcome for every state. I'll learn from this mistake in future predictions. It's not as complicated as I thought!

    As to those who have said all along that polls don't matter and are all just a bunch of lies...well...you can see otherwise. The major, non-partisan, national-level polls (i.e. think the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, NOT partisan polls like Rasmussen or local newspaper polls like the Miami Herald) correctly predicted the outcome for every state.

    Among the professional election predictors, Nate Silver's controversial 538 blog was largely validated. Nate provided the single most accurate prediction of any of the experts. Of course there were only two expert sources that bothered to even call all the states (the other being Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball). I consider a failure to call every state cowardly and cheating when it comes to classifying yourself as an expert predictor. Part of being an expert lies in being able to make accurate guesses when you're not sure.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-07-2012 at 06:35 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Let it be known that I was the only person on this entire message board to correctly predict that Obama would win re-election. I correctly predicted that Obama would win re-election, that Democrats would retain the Senate, that Republicans would retain the House, and that Republicans would gain at least one governorship. However, my state-by-state breakdown could have been more accurate. Namely, in the presidential race, I was off by three states: I had wrongly predicted that Colorado, Virginia, and Florida would go for Romney. I see where I made my error though. I was over-complicating things by trying to include estimates of early voting results in my projection of the winners in each state. For example, I saw an MSNBC report over the weekend indicating that an estimated 85% of Colorado likely voters had already cast their ballots and that Romney was favored in them. Therefore I predicted Romney would win Colorado for sure. I likewise looked at Virginia and Florida kind of expecting Romney to win because he was leading in the polls in those two states for much of October, when early voting was going on. In reality, if I had simply made my prediction based on what the major, non-partisan, national-level polls from the last weekend before election day, I would have correctly predicted the outcome for every state. I'll learn from this mistake in future predictions. It's not as complicated as I thought!

    As to those who have said all along that polls don't matter and are all just a bunch of lies...well...you can see otherwise. The major, non-partisan, national-level polls (i.e. think the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, NOT partisan polls like Rasmussen or local newspaper polls like the Miami Herald) correctly predicted the outcome for every state.

    Among the professional election predictors, Nate Silver's controversial 538 blog was largely validated. Nate provided the single most accurate prediction of any of the experts. Of course there were only two expert sources that bothered to even call all the states (the other being Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball). I consider a failure to call every state cowardly and cheating when it comes to classifying yourself as an expert predictor. Part of being an expert lies in being able to make accurate guesses when you're not sure.
    Congrats on your accurate prediction.....I hate you.

    Just kidding (about the hate part).

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    good going Polly

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    Here were the results from my state:

    THE PRESIDENCY:

    Obama: 67%
    Romney: 31%

    ...Pffffff! LOL!!!!!

    THE GOVERNORSHIP:

    Shumlin (Democrat): 58%
    Brock (Republican): 38%

    ...close...not.

    THE SENATE:

    Sanders (independent socialist): 71%
    MacGovern (Republican): 25%

    ...The socialist was the most popular winner of the night in my home state! Won by an even bigger margin than in 2006!

  14. #50
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    Excellent work, Polly. I have to say that i personally expected Obama to win, but certainly not because i did all the researching and work that you did. I just simply could not believe that Obama could lose to such a weak opponent. I say that because, when Romney backers say that Hurricane Sandy and the Chris Christie / Obama moment was such a big negative, that tells me that their candidate was just weak.

    Romney, though, did deliver a very excellent concession speech, and presented himself well. I did read somewhere that Tagg is drunk and out to take a big swing at the POTUS.

    Todd Aiken, on the other hand, was a simple ass delivering his concession speech in his loss. Now he can go back to 1920 where he belongs.
    Last edited by bladimz; 11-07-2012 at 08:11 AM.
    Please note: verbage enclosed by < > indicates sarcasm

    "There's class war alright. But it's my class that's making the war. And we're winning it." - Warren Buffet

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