User Tag List

+ Reply to Thread
Page 6 of 6 FirstFirst ... 23456
Results 51 to 59 of 59

Thread: My (Tentatively) Final U.S. Election Predictions

  1. #51
    Points: 187,745, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 91.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassYour first GroupOverdrive1 year registered50000 Experience PointsTagger First Class
    Awards:
    Frequent Poster
    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    27015
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    55,168
    Points
    187,745
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    4,045
    Thanked 10,176x in 7,976 Posts
    Mentioned
    562 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    328
    Let it be known that I was the only person on this entire message board to correctly predict that Obama would win re-election.
    I predicted it the day Romney won the nomination. He got a bump after the first debate, but couldn't sustain it. Lousy choice, the GOP needs to regroup and select a conservative/libertarian next time to give America a choice.

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to Chris For This Useful Post:

    bladimz (11-07-2012)

  3. #52
    Points: 11,465, Level: 25
    Level completed: 69%, Points required for next Level: 285
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    SocialOverdrive1 year registered10000 Experience Points
    truthmatters's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    -689
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    4,478
    Points
    11,465
    Level
    25
    Thanks Given
    324
    Thanked 125x in 113 Posts
    Mentioned
    11 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    0
    Is that why you defended him?

  4. #53
    Points: 65,137, Level: 62
    Level completed: 33%, Points required for next Level: 1,413
    Overall activity: 1.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialYour first GroupCreated Album picturesTagger First Class1 year registered50000 Experience Points
    KC's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    20920
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Wisconsin, USA
    Posts
    8,879
    Points
    65,137
    Level
    62
    Thanks Given
    4,290
    Thanked 4,026x in 2,806 Posts
    Mentioned
    269 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    220
    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Here were the results from my state:

    THE PRESIDENCY:

    Obama: 67%
    Romney: 31%

    ...Pffffff! LOL!!!!!

    THE GOVERNORSHIP:

    Shumlin (Democrat): 58%
    Brock (Republican): 38%

    ...close...not.

    THE SENATE:

    Sanders (independent socialist): 71%
    MacGovern (Republican): 25%

    ...The socialist was the most popular winner of the night in my home state! Won by an even bigger margin than in 2006!
    You must have known that Obama would do so well in your state, so, why not vote third party? I mean, Stein's political views seem to match up much better to yours, and there was no danger of Obama losing Vermont.

    It's the same thing I wonder about Texas Democrats and California Republicans. If the results in those states are concluded before the race, why not do Democracy a favor?

  5. The Following User Says Thank You to KC For This Useful Post:

    IMPress Polly (11-07-2012)

  6. #54
    V.I.P
    Points: 49,163, Level: 54
    Level completed: 18%, Points required for next Level: 1,487
    Overall activity: 4.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialYour first Group1 year registered25000 Experience Points
    IMPress Polly's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    23265
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Vermont, USA
    Posts
    1,822
    Points
    49,163
    Level
    54
    Thanks Given
    1,554
    Thanked 1,420x in 877 Posts
    Mentioned
    270 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    236
    KC wrote:
    Looks like Polly was more on than most on these forums. My only prediction, that whoever won would do so relatively modestly, turned out to be wrong.

    Nice going Polly!
    Thanks! Actually though, we were both right (somewhat) about the closeness of the race. Look at the popular vote. Obama didn't win it by very much. It's really just the electoral vote in which he cleaned house. I didn't foresee that coming any more than you did. Like I said earlier today though, I've learned the error of my prediction methodology, so I'll be able to give more precise forecasts in the future.

    You must have known that Obama would do so well in your state, so, why not vote third party?
    That's a good point actually, but...it probably would have detracted from my "vote for Obama" message I was delivering to the general U.S. public.

  7. The Following User Says Thank You to IMPress Polly For This Useful Post:

    KC (11-07-2012)

  8. #55
    Points: 187,745, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 91.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassYour first GroupOverdrive1 year registered50000 Experience PointsTagger First Class
    Awards:
    Frequent Poster
    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    27015
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    55,168
    Points
    187,745
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    4,045
    Thanked 10,176x in 7,976 Posts
    Mentioned
    562 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    328
    Quote Originally Posted by truthmatters View Post
    Is that why you defended him?
    Show us where I have ever done that, matters. We went through this yesterday and you were unable to do that. Should we call you makeupmatters?

  9. #56
    Points: 65,137, Level: 62
    Level completed: 33%, Points required for next Level: 1,413
    Overall activity: 1.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialYour first GroupCreated Album picturesTagger First Class1 year registered50000 Experience Points
    KC's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    20920
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Wisconsin, USA
    Posts
    8,879
    Points
    65,137
    Level
    62
    Thanks Given
    4,290
    Thanked 4,026x in 2,806 Posts
    Mentioned
    269 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    220
    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    That's a good point actually, but...it probably would have detracted from my "vote for Obama" message I was delivering to the general U.S. public.
    Well, I suppose your honesty is refreshing. You could have easily voted for anyone else but still preached the Obama message, knowing full well that we can't check your ballot.

  10. The Following User Says Thank You to KC For This Useful Post:

    IMPress Polly (11-07-2012)

  11. #57
    Points: 187,745, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 91.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassYour first GroupOverdrive1 year registered50000 Experience PointsTagger First Class
    Awards:
    Frequent Poster
    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    27015
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    55,168
    Points
    187,745
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    4,045
    Thanked 10,176x in 7,976 Posts
    Mentioned
    562 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    328
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    I predicted it the day Romney won the nomination. He got a bump after the first debate, but couldn't sustain it. Lousy choice, the GOP needs to regroup and select a conservative/libertarian next time to give America a choice.
    Quote Originally Posted by truthmatters View Post
    Is that why you defended him?
    Here I am clearly criticizing Romney and the GOP and you blatantly making a false accusation.

  12. #58

    tPF Moderator
    Original Ranter
    V.I.P
    Points: 238,049, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 100.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Discussion Ender
    Peter1469's Avatar Moderator Representative
    Karma
    55298
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Northern VA
    Posts
    50,093
    Points
    238,049
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    22,288
    Thanked 16,042x in 11,740 Posts
    Mentioned
    1065 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    606
    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Let it be known that I was the only person on this entire message board to correctly predict that Obama would win re-election. I correctly predicted that Obama would win re-election, that Democrats would retain the Senate, that Republicans would retain the House, and that Republicans would gain at least one governorship. However, my state-by-state breakdown could have been more accurate. Namely, in the presidential race, I was off by three states: I had wrongly predicted that Colorado, Virginia, and Florida would go for Romney. I see where I made my error though. I was over-complicating things by trying to include estimates of early voting results in my projection of the winners in each state. For example, I saw an MSNBC report over the weekend indicating that an estimated 85% of Colorado likely voters had already cast their ballots and that Romney was favored in them. Therefore I predicted Romney would win Colorado for sure. I likewise looked at Virginia and Florida kind of expecting Romney to win because he was leading in the polls in those two states for much of October, when early voting was going on. In reality, if I had simply based my prediction on what the major, non-partisan, national-level polls from the last weekend before election day said, I would have correctly predicted the outcome for every state. I'll learn from this mistake in future predictions. It's not as complicated as I thought!

    As to those who have said all along that polls don't matter and are all just a bunch of lies...well...you can see otherwise. The major, non-partisan, national-level polls (i.e. think the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, NOT partisan polls like Rasmussen or local newspaper polls like the Miami Herald) correctly predicted the outcome for every state.

    Among the professional election predictors, Nate Silver's controversial 538 blog was largely validated. Nate provided the single most accurate prediction of any of the experts. Of course there were only two expert sources that bothered to even call all the states (the other being Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball). I consider a failure to call every state cowardly and cheating when it comes to classifying yourself as an expert predictor. Part of being an expert lies in being able to make accurate guesses when you're not sure.

    But didn't you also say in other posts that no candidate would get over 300 electoral votes and those who predicted such things were morons (OK I embellished the last word).

  13. #59

    tPF Moderator
    Original Ranter
    V.I.P
    Points: 238,049, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 100.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Discussion Ender
    Peter1469's Avatar Moderator Representative
    Karma
    55298
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Northern VA
    Posts
    50,093
    Points
    238,049
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    22,288
    Thanked 16,042x in 11,740 Posts
    Mentioned
    1065 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    606
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Here I am clearly criticizing Romney and the GOP and you blatantly making a false accusation.
    I am positive that TM is clueless over the issue. Don't be hard on the feeble minded. It is cruel.

+ Reply to Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts


Forum Topsite Critical Acclaim
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO