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Thread: My (Tentatively) Final U.S. Election Predictions

  1. #51
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    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
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    Let it be known that I was the only person on this entire message board to correctly predict that Obama would win re-election.
    I predicted it the day Romney won the nomination. He got a bump after the first debate, but couldn't sustain it. Lousy choice, the GOP needs to regroup and select a conservative/libertarian next time to give America a choice.

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    bladimz (11-07-2012)

  3. #52
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    truthmatters's Avatar Senior Member
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    Is that why you defended him?

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Here were the results from my state:

    THE PRESIDENCY:

    Obama: 67%
    Romney: 31%

    ...Pffffff! LOL!!!!!

    THE GOVERNORSHIP:

    Shumlin (Democrat): 58%
    Brock (Republican): 38%

    ...close...not.

    THE SENATE:

    Sanders (independent socialist): 71%
    MacGovern (Republican): 25%

    ...The socialist was the most popular winner of the night in my home state! Won by an even bigger margin than in 2006!
    You must have known that Obama would do so well in your state, so, why not vote third party? I mean, Stein's political views seem to match up much better to yours, and there was no danger of Obama losing Vermont.

    It's the same thing I wonder about Texas Democrats and California Republicans. If the results in those states are concluded before the race, why not do Democracy a favor?

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    IMPress Polly (11-07-2012)

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    KC wrote:
    Looks like Polly was more on than most on these forums. My only prediction, that whoever won would do so relatively modestly, turned out to be wrong.

    Nice going Polly!
    Thanks! Actually though, we were both right (somewhat) about the closeness of the race. Look at the popular vote. Obama didn't win it by very much. It's really just the electoral vote in which he cleaned house. I didn't foresee that coming any more than you did. Like I said earlier today though, I've learned the error of my prediction methodology, so I'll be able to give more precise forecasts in the future.

    You must have known that Obama would do so well in your state, so, why not vote third party?
    That's a good point actually, but...it probably would have detracted from my "vote for Obama" message I was delivering to the general U.S. public.

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    KC (11-07-2012)

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    Quote Originally Posted by truthmatters View Post
    Is that why you defended him?
    Show us where I have ever done that, matters. We went through this yesterday and you were unable to do that. Should we call you makeupmatters?

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    That's a good point actually, but...it probably would have detracted from my "vote for Obama" message I was delivering to the general U.S. public.
    Well, I suppose your honesty is refreshing. You could have easily voted for anyone else but still preached the Obama message, knowing full well that we can't check your ballot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    I predicted it the day Romney won the nomination. He got a bump after the first debate, but couldn't sustain it. Lousy choice, the GOP needs to regroup and select a conservative/libertarian next time to give America a choice.
    Quote Originally Posted by truthmatters View Post
    Is that why you defended him?
    Here I am clearly criticizing Romney and the GOP and you blatantly making a false accusation.

  12. #58
    tPF Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Let it be known that I was the only person on this entire message board to correctly predict that Obama would win re-election. I correctly predicted that Obama would win re-election, that Democrats would retain the Senate, that Republicans would retain the House, and that Republicans would gain at least one governorship. However, my state-by-state breakdown could have been more accurate. Namely, in the presidential race, I was off by three states: I had wrongly predicted that Colorado, Virginia, and Florida would go for Romney. I see where I made my error though. I was over-complicating things by trying to include estimates of early voting results in my projection of the winners in each state. For example, I saw an MSNBC report over the weekend indicating that an estimated 85% of Colorado likely voters had already cast their ballots and that Romney was favored in them. Therefore I predicted Romney would win Colorado for sure. I likewise looked at Virginia and Florida kind of expecting Romney to win because he was leading in the polls in those two states for much of October, when early voting was going on. In reality, if I had simply based my prediction on what the major, non-partisan, national-level polls from the last weekend before election day said, I would have correctly predicted the outcome for every state. I'll learn from this mistake in future predictions. It's not as complicated as I thought!

    As to those who have said all along that polls don't matter and are all just a bunch of lies...well...you can see otherwise. The major, non-partisan, national-level polls (i.e. think the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, NOT partisan polls like Rasmussen or local newspaper polls like the Miami Herald) correctly predicted the outcome for every state.

    Among the professional election predictors, Nate Silver's controversial 538 blog was largely validated. Nate provided the single most accurate prediction of any of the experts. Of course there were only two expert sources that bothered to even call all the states (the other being Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball). I consider a failure to call every state cowardly and cheating when it comes to classifying yourself as an expert predictor. Part of being an expert lies in being able to make accurate guesses when you're not sure.

    But didn't you also say in other posts that no candidate would get over 300 electoral votes and those who predicted such things were morons (OK I embellished the last word).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Here I am clearly criticizing Romney and the GOP and you blatantly making a false accusation.
    I am positive that TM is clueless over the issue. Don't be hard on the feeble minded. It is cruel.

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