User Tag List

+ Reply to Thread
Results 1 to 10 of 10

Thread: Electoral-vote predictions

  1. #1
    Points: 12,524, Level: 26
    Level completed: 86%, Points required for next Level: 126
    Overall activity: 4.0%
    Achievements:
    1 year registeredTagger First Class10000 Experience Points
    pjohns's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    1674
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    910
    Points
    12,524
    Level
    26
    Thanks Given
    1,062
    Thanked 326x in 245 Posts
    Mentioned
    9 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    19

    Electoral-vote predictions

    Well, the trenchant political analyst, Michael Barone, has now predicted that Romney will win the presidency with 315 electoral votes to Obama's 223: http://www.nationalreview.com/author/200447

    And George Will--another serious thinker--has Romney up by 321 to 217: http://therightnewz.com/?p=13384

    From these analysts, it would appear that the fat lady has sung.

    Before we declare the contest essentially over, however, we should probably note that no less of an authority than Larry Sabato predicts an Obama win, 290 to 248: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

    So I guess we will have to wait another 24 hours to find out, for sure...

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to pjohns For This Useful Post:

    IMPress Polly (11-05-2012)

  3. #2
    Points: 3,191, Level: 13
    Level completed: 29%, Points required for next Level: 359
    Overall activity: 21.0%
    Achievements:
    Social1000 Experience Points31 days registered
    Larry Dickman's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    1463
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Posts
    438
    Points
    3,191
    Level
    13
    Thanks Given
    365
    Thanked 348x in 195 Posts
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    16
    I like Larry Sabato, but he does lean ever so slightly to the left, and I think that is driving his prediction. None of the polls are clearly measuring turnout enthusiasm. CNN had to weigh their data +11 Democrat in order to make it a tie.

    Romney 300 +. Adios President Fuck-face.
    Count the F-bombs in my posts, and if you don't like them, kiss my lilly white ass.

  4. #3
    Points: 13,027, Level: 27
    Level completed: 42%, Points required for next Level: 523
    Overall activity: 33.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second Class3 months registered10000 Experience Points
    coolwalker's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    2069
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Norfolk, Virginia
    Posts
    2,642
    Points
    13,027
    Level
    27
    Thanks Given
    713
    Thanked 663x in 504 Posts
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    25
    300+ is Romney...the media did it's damnedest to get Obama re-elected (why I'll never know) but the people will speak...it's going to look like 1980 all over again. I just hope Michelle doesn't scratch his eyes out. I don't trust that woman to be civil.



  5. #4
    V.I.P
    Points: 45,132, Level: 51
    Level completed: 94%, Points required for next Level: 118
    Overall activity: 7.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialYour first Group1 year registered25000 Experience Points
    IMPress Polly's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    21576
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Vermont, USA
    Posts
    1,626
    Points
    45,132
    Level
    51
    Thanks Given
    1,344
    Thanked 1,249x in 777 Posts
    Mentioned
    243 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    219
    As many of you know, my final official prediction/breakdown can be found here. (One should also read over my subsequent post there to clarify a small math error I made on the state governorship races.)

    I'll just make this statement here though: Romney barely stands any chance of winning at all. He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting any 300+ electoral votes.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-05-2012 at 05:27 PM.

  6. The Following User Says Thank You to IMPress Polly For This Useful Post:

    Carygrant (11-06-2012)

  7. #5
    tPF Moderator
    Original Ranter
    V.I.P
    Points: 206,469, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 99.7%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Discussion Ender
    Peter1469's Avatar Moderator Representative
    Karma
    46205
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Northern VA
    Posts
    44,587
    Points
    206,469
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    19,247
    Thanked 14,221x in 10,343 Posts
    Mentioned
    946 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    510
    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    As many of you know, my final official prediction/breakdown can be found here. (One should also read over my subsequent post there to clarify a small math error I made on the state governorship races.)

    I'll just make this statement here though: Romney barely stands any chance of winning at all. He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting any 300+ electoral votes.
    We shall see Polly.

  8. #6
    Points: 178,125, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 61.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialOverdrive50000 Experience Points1 year registered
    Awards:
    Posting Award
    Cigar's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    17662
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Land of Lincoln
    Posts
    36,301
    Points
    178,125
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    781
    Thanked 3,306x in 2,730 Posts
    Mentioned
    484 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    215
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Dickman View Post
    I like Larry Sabato, but he does lean ever so slightly to the left, and I think that is driving his prediction. None of the polls are clearly measuring turnout enthusiasm. CNN had to weigh their data +11 Democrat in order to make it a tie.

    Romney 300 +. Adios President Fuck-face.

    For that classy comment; I'll make an extra special effort to shove your defeat up your ass dry.
    Conservatism is the fear that somewhere, somehow, someone you think is your inferior is being treated as your equal"


    con·serv·a·tive ; kənˈsərvətiv / adjective

    1. holding to traditional attitudes and values and cautious about change or innovation, typically in relation to politics or religion.


  9. #7
    V.I.P
    Points: 61,889, Level: 60
    Level completed: 77%, Points required for next Level: 461
    Overall activity: 45.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialYour first GroupCreated Album picturesTagger First Class1 year registered50000 Experience Points
    KC's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    19057
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Wisconsin, USA
    Posts
    8,727
    Points
    61,889
    Level
    60
    Thanks Given
    4,192
    Thanked 3,859x in 2,711 Posts
    Mentioned
    261 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    201
    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    As many of you know, my final official prediction/breakdown can be found here. (One should also read over my subsequent post there to clarify a small math error I made on the state governorship races.)

    I'll just make this statement here though: Romney barely stands any chance of winning at all. He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting any 300+ electoral votes.
    I somewhat agree, Polly, I think that if Romney wins, he wins modestly, but certainly not over 300. I will not predict the outcome of this election except that I think it will be relatively close.
    Life is too short to refrain from eating jam out of the jar... life is too short to make toast, or use spoons or napkins. - John Darnielle

  10. The Following User Says Thank You to KC For This Useful Post:

    IMPress Polly (11-06-2012)

  11. #8
    Points: 25,712, Level: 39
    Level completed: 5%, Points required for next Level: 1,238
    Overall activity: 17.0%
    Achievements:
    1 year registered25000 Experience Points
    Kabuki Joe's Avatar Banned
    Karma
    5035
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Posts
    4,321
    Points
    25,712
    Level
    39
    Thanks Given
    2,015
    Thanked 758x in 591 Posts
    Mentioned
    32 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by Cigar View Post
    For that classy comment; I'll make an extra special effort to shove your defeat up your ass dry.

    ...you are judging someone's tact/tone?...well I'll be!...


    Kabuki Joe

  12. The Following User Says Thank You to Kabuki Joe For This Useful Post:

    coolwalker (11-06-2012)

  13. #9
    V.I.P
    Points: 45,132, Level: 51
    Level completed: 94%, Points required for next Level: 118
    Overall activity: 7.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialYour first Group1 year registered25000 Experience Points
    IMPress Polly's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    21576
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Vermont, USA
    Posts
    1,626
    Points
    45,132
    Level
    51
    Thanks Given
    1,344
    Thanked 1,249x in 777 Posts
    Mentioned
    243 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    219
    KC wrote:
    I somewhat agree, Polly, I think that if Romney wins, he wins modestly, but certainly not over 300. I will not predict the outcome of this election except that I think it will be relatively close.
    Then even at what was it, 19 years of age, you're already wiser than the majority here (or anywhere activists congregate for that matter). You're right in that this will be a relatively close election. I'm confident in what the the essential outcome will be nonetheless.

    I've seen lots of people predict that their candidate will get 300+ electoral votes and win 55% of the popular vote or more. Not a chance. Even on the Obama side, I'd say 300 electoral votes sounds kind of unrealistic. And 55% or more of the popular vote? Really? People who make those kinds of predictions of a race like this one aren't consulting the facts very much. They're simply projecting their wishes onto reality. Wishful thinking won't make it real though.

    Kabuki Joe wrote:
    ...you are judging someone's tact/tone?...well I'll be!...
    Few people here have a right to call anyone on that. Lots of people here pick on Cigar simply because he's a leftist while engaging in much the same type of behavior themselves from a right wing orientation. Pretty much all of Larry's posts are like that. It's part of who he is. If you don't believe me, look at his signature. I mostly ignore him these days. People like that are emotion-driven and rarely know what they're talking about. If you find Cigar the same way from your right wing perspective, I'd advise you to do the same.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-06-2012 at 02:02 PM.

  14. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to IMPress Polly For This Useful Post:

    KC (11-06-2012),Peter1469 (11-06-2012)

  15. #10
    V.I.P
    Points: 61,889, Level: 60
    Level completed: 77%, Points required for next Level: 461
    Overall activity: 45.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialYour first GroupCreated Album picturesTagger First Class1 year registered50000 Experience Points
    KC's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    19057
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Wisconsin, USA
    Posts
    8,727
    Points
    61,889
    Level
    60
    Thanks Given
    4,192
    Thanked 3,859x in 2,711 Posts
    Mentioned
    261 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Rep Power
    201
    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Then even at what was it, 19 years of age, you're already wiser than the majority here (or anywhere activists congregate for that matter). You're right in that this will be a relatively close election. I'm confident in what the the essential outcome will be nonetheless.

    I've seen lots of people predict that their candidate will get 300+ electoral votes and win 55% of the popular vote or more. Not a chance. Even on the Obama side, I'd say 300 electoral votes sounds kind of unrealistic. And 55% or more of the popular vote? Really? People who make those kinds of predictions of a race like this one aren't consulting the facts very much. They're simply projecting their wishes onto reality. Wishful thinking won't make it real though.
    Actually 20, but thanks for the compliment all the same.
    Life is too short to refrain from eating jam out of the jar... life is too short to make toast, or use spoons or napkins. - John Darnielle

+ Reply to Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts


Forum Topsite Critical Acclaim
Top Ron Paul Sites - Ranking the best Ron Paul related Freedom and Liberty Websites
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO