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Thread: Electoral-vote predictions

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    pjohns's Avatar Senior Member
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    Electoral-vote predictions

    Well, the trenchant political analyst, Michael Barone, has now predicted that Romney will win the presidency with 315 electoral votes to Obama's 223: http://www.nationalreview.com/author/200447

    And George Will--another serious thinker--has Romney up by 321 to 217: http://therightnewz.com/?p=13384

    From these analysts, it would appear that the fat lady has sung.

    Before we declare the contest essentially over, however, we should probably note that no less of an authority than Larry Sabato predicts an Obama win, 290 to 248: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

    So I guess we will have to wait another 24 hours to find out, for sure...

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    IMPress Polly (11-05-2012)

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    Larry Dickman's Avatar Senior Member
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    I like Larry Sabato, but he does lean ever so slightly to the left, and I think that is driving his prediction. None of the polls are clearly measuring turnout enthusiasm. CNN had to weigh their data +11 Democrat in order to make it a tie.

    Romney 300 +. Adios President $#@!-face.
    Count the F-bombs in my posts, and if you don't like them, kiss my lilly white ass.

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    300+ is Romney...the media did it's damnedest to get Obama re-elected (why I'll never know) but the people will speak...it's going to look like 1980 all over again. I just hope Michelle doesn't scratch his eyes out. I don't trust that woman to be civil.



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    As many of you know, my final official prediction/breakdown can be found here. (One should also read over my subsequent post there to clarify a small math error I made on the state governorship races.)

    I'll just make this statement here though: Romney barely stands any chance of winning at all. He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting any 300+ electoral votes.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-05-2012 at 05:27 PM.

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    Carygrant (11-06-2012)

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    As many of you know, my final official prediction/breakdown can be found here. (One should also read over my subsequent post there to clarify a small math error I made on the state governorship races.)

    I'll just make this statement here though: Romney barely stands any chance of winning at all. He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting any 300+ electoral votes.
    We shall see Polly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Dickman View Post
    I like Larry Sabato, but he does lean ever so slightly to the left, and I think that is driving his prediction. None of the polls are clearly measuring turnout enthusiasm. CNN had to weigh their data +11 Democrat in order to make it a tie.

    Romney 300 +. Adios President $#@!-face.

    For that classy comment; I'll make an extra special effort to shove your defeat up your ass dry.
    The Early Bird may get the Worm, but it's the Second Mouse who gets the Cheese

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    As many of you know, my final official prediction/breakdown can be found here. (One should also read over my subsequent post there to clarify a small math error I made on the state governorship races.)

    I'll just make this statement here though: Romney barely stands any chance of winning at all. He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting any 300+ electoral votes.
    I somewhat agree, Polly, I think that if Romney wins, he wins modestly, but certainly not over 300. I will not predict the outcome of this election except that I think it will be relatively close.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cigar View Post
    For that classy comment; I'll make an extra special effort to shove your defeat up your ass dry.

    ...you are judging someone's tact/tone?...well I'll be!...


    Kabuki Joe

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    KC wrote:
    I somewhat agree, Polly, I think that if Romney wins, he wins modestly, but certainly not over 300. I will not predict the outcome of this election except that I think it will be relatively close.
    Then even at what was it, 19 years of age, you're already wiser than the majority here (or anywhere activists congregate for that matter). You're right in that this will be a relatively close election. I'm confident in what the the essential outcome will be nonetheless.

    I've seen lots of people predict that their candidate will get 300+ electoral votes and win 55% of the popular vote or more. Not a chance. Even on the Obama side, I'd say 300 electoral votes sounds kind of unrealistic. And 55% or more of the popular vote? Really? People who make those kinds of predictions of a race like this one aren't consulting the facts very much. They're simply projecting their wishes onto reality. Wishful thinking won't make it real though.

    Kabuki Joe wrote:
    ...you are judging someone's tact/tone?...well I'll be!...
    Few people here have a right to call anyone on that. Lots of people here pick on Cigar simply because he's a leftist while engaging in much the same type of behavior themselves from a right wing orientation. Pretty much all of Larry's posts are like that. It's part of who he is. If you don't believe me, look at his signature. I mostly ignore him these days. People like that are emotion-driven and rarely know what they're talking about. If you find Cigar the same way from your right wing perspective, I'd advise you to do the same.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-06-2012 at 02:02 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Then even at what was it, 19 years of age, you're already wiser than the majority here (or anywhere activists congregate for that matter). You're right in that this will be a relatively close election. I'm confident in what the the essential outcome will be nonetheless.

    I've seen lots of people predict that their candidate will get 300+ electoral votes and win 55% of the popular vote or more. Not a chance. Even on the Obama side, I'd say 300 electoral votes sounds kind of unrealistic. And 55% or more of the popular vote? Really? People who make those kinds of predictions of a race like this one aren't consulting the facts very much. They're simply projecting their wishes onto reality. Wishful thinking won't make it real though.
    Actually 20, but thanks for the compliment all the same.

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