Commentary: Trump’s silver lining in Iraq
I am not sure why the editors picked this title, it doesn't really fit. It is about Iraq after the Islamic State is pushed out. A small part of Mosul being the last stronghold.
Kurds control a large part of northern Iraq and already are semi-autonomous. They may even vote for independence in September. I guess this where Trump comes in- prior US presidents did not support the Kurds.There will be winners, like the Kurds. There will be losers, like Iraq’s Sunni minority. There will be gains for Iran, which backs the Shi’ite militias drafted to fight Sunni-dominated IS. And there may be a silver lining for the Trump administration - specifically in the form of Kurdish independence and permanent American bases in a Shi’ite-ruled Iraq. But any declaration of “victory” on the part of the United States depends on how the measure of those results is taken.
The Sunni are losers. They are fragmented and surrounded by Kurds to the North, and Shiites to the South, to include a lot of Shiites directly controlled by Iran. They also don't have much oil.
The Shia will maintain the capital and much of Iraq- likely with US bases remaining in order to check Iranian power.
Iran likely won't actively resist since they have little to gain fighting over land outside of Iran. Especially a fight they can't win.