How best to deal with North Korea

[Peter1469]

Is North Koera planning another nuclear test?

Speculation is growing over the high possibility of a sixth nuclear test by North Korea following its successful test-launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Tuesday.


Pyongyang is purportedly capable of mounting a nuclear warhead on the ICBM, which is believed to be able to reach Alaska.


To fulfill its years-long goal of striking the U.S. mainland, the reclusive state will try to verify through a nuclear test that its nuclear warhead is explosive enough and yet securely attached to the ICBM, according to military officials and analysts.

[Peter1469]

U.S. Tells North Korea It Is Prepared to Go to War

The U.S. warned North Korea that it is ready to fight if provoked, as Pyongyang claimed another weapons-development breakthrough following its launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile a day earlier.

The regime, having demonstrated its capacity to reach the U.S. with a missile, on Wednesday touted another achievement of the test launch: It claimed that its missile warhead—the forward section, which carries the explosive—can withstand the extreme heat and pressure of re-entering the earth’s atmosphere.


If true—the claim couldn’t be independently verified—that would clear another hurdle in developing a nuclear-tipped missile that can reach American cities.



As tensions between Washington and Pyongyang rose, Gen. Vincent Brooks, the top American military commander in South Korea, said in a statement Wednesday that the U.S. and South Korea are prepared to go to war with the North if given the order.

I wonder what the South Koreans think about this.

[Common Sense]

Not a great scenario.

Let's hope cooler heads prevail.

[Doublejack]

[pjohns]

Not a great scenario.

Let's hope cooler heads prevail.

With the first paragraph, above, I agree. (We could undoubtedly defeat, militarily, North Korea; but at the cost of hundreds of thousands--perhaps even more--innocent South Korean and Japanese civilians, as Little Kim would almost certainly lash out, in his regime's death throes.)

As to the second paragraph, however, I must confess a severe distaste for any reference to "cooler heads prevail[ing]." That is because it is almost always a euphemism for doing nothing--and then attributing that to a calm (and supposedly wiser) demeanor.

[RollingWave]

A few minutes ago, I heard, on the news, three proposals as to how to deal with North Korea, short of a full-fledged war.

In ascending order of aggression, they are as follows:

(1) Announce that any other country may have economic dealings--any economic dealings--with North Korea, or with the United States; but that it is quite impossible to deal with both--and enforce that, stringently.

This, or course, would doubtless entail our cutting all economic ties with China--which would leave some bureaucrats almost apoplectic--but it would certainly be okay with me.

(2) Shoot down any tested North Korean missile during its ascent stage.

(3) Put increased pressure upon China to rein in its client state, by announcing that we intend to sell nuclear missiles to Japan--China's arch-enemy--unless China stops the DPRK in its tracks. And truly mean it.

Personally, I would be fine with any of these...

(1) good luck trying to do that, the internal pressure would be huge as pretty much all major business have big interest in China.

(2) first, probably not doable even technically speaking, second, if you do that and I'm China I would just keep sending missile to North Korea to test fire a dozen every day and laugh. the thing with missile interception is that the interceptors are much much more expensive than the missiles it's intercepting usually. your also giving away a lot of secrets in terms of Electronic Warfare to keep firing those stuff so close to China / Russia . also, your opening some rather questionable precedence here. what if one day a Chinese ship pops up near a US missile exercise and do the same?

(3) So the entire reason that this North Korea thing is even a thing is the non-proliferation treaty (which by the way, has been poorly enforced in general. ) ..... so your solution is to break the treaty yourself by supplying Japan?

--------------------------

There isn't a lot of good solutions here, in general probably just leave North Korea alone is the more reasonable and realistic approach, the Kim regime is actually doing some minor market reforms and there's a good reasons why you don't hear a bout North Korea famine much these days anymore (they've already abolished collective farm system. )

North Korea's intention is to survive, their relationship with China is a mixed bag unlike what some people seem to assume. They are well aware that China could potentially pull the plug on them and they're way over reliant on the PRC so there's actually a lot of caution on their part against China. (and vice versa. China doesn't want someone outside of their control that can drag them into a war not of their design. )

If everything else was equal China would prefer the South unifying the North and the American bases leave, that's the best outcome for them, the problem is that they ( reasonably) feel this is way too risky and too many things could go wrong between now and that point to be worth it to actively push that way very hard.

I fail to see a coherent strategy on the US part in all this right now, is this ultimately just a precursor / excuse for a trade war with China? seems like a weird one if that's the case. and that doing a trade war with China is unlikely to end too well for for the Trump Regime anyway.

Look, the North have done much more provocative stuff than what it's doing now in reality before, in the 70s they literally send a commando team to try and assassinate the south's President, in the 80s they sent a female spy to blow up a jet liner, just a few years ago they freaking bombarded an off shore island inhabited by South Koreans . all those things happened and no one's seriously talking about war. the problem to an extent is that the North probably perceive the US as being the boy that cried wolf too many times already and barring them actually marching over the 38 line nothing's gonna really happen, so the threat strategy isn't really likely to work anymore.

Going into a trade war with China is a questionable approach at best because of not only the stuff I mentioned, but also because pretty much no country that has any backbone ever would accept threats. and most would push back very hard against that . so lets say you run a trade war and in fact the US cave in first (fairly likely due to the messy nature of politics. ) , how's that going to be perceived ?

So if your goal is to not actually start Korean War 2, the best way is actually try to facilitate market reform in the North. Try to get them to reopen the Kaesong industrial zone and get it to expand more.

( they have an incentive to pull themselves out of China's domination, remember. )

[Ransom]

U.S. Tells North Korea It Is Prepared to Go to War




I wonder what the South Koreans think about this.

Why? Do we have vital national security interests on the Korean Peninsula, Peter?

[donttread]

U.S. Tells North Korea It Is Prepared to Go to War




I wonder what the South Koreans think about this.

And the transfer of boggiemen is almost complete

[donttread]

Not a great scenario.

Let's hope cooler heads prevail.

LOL. "Cooler heads prevail". Good one! This isn't about anger. It is partly about ego. But it is mostly about feeding the out of control global war machine. Hence the timing, as soon as the ME becomes less of a threat because we can finally produce our own daily staples. Suddenly, NK, Russia and China must be dealt with and provoked. Am I the only one who sees the irony of the timing?
At least NK is something of a real boggieman unlike Russia and China who will never attack us or our bases unless attacked instead of just provoked.

[Peter1469]

Why? Do we have vital national security interests on the Korean Peninsula, Peter?

We have a vital interst to not have a US city be attacked by North Korea or worse an EMP attack.

That is why those previous incidents mentioned in Rolling's post above didn't uspet the US much and the potential for a North Korean nuclear strike does.

I guess you have to answer this question: is the North Korean government a rational actor or not. (I have argued several times that they were).