Autonomous Vehicles

[Don]

to put four million people out of work?

Whenever economic change takes place, there are those who ask: Where will those displaced find other work? In counting the costs involved as autonomous vehicles (i.e., driverless cars, self-driving cars, robotic cars, etc.) continue to revolutionize how people move, Wolf Richter of Wolf Street concluded that more than four million people will lose their jobs:
• Two million heavy truck and tractor-trailer over-the-road drivers;
• One and a half million delivery truck drivers;
• 250,000 taxi drivers and chauffeurs; and
• 500,000 Uber and other "ride-sharing" drivers.

I don't think so!

There will continue to be, in the words of economist Joseph Schumpeter, the “process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.”
Such inevitability was lost on other naysayers in the past such as Edwin Drake, who, in 1859 asked: “Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try to find oil? You’re crazy!”
Or Pierre Pachet in 1972, who said: “Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.” Or British surgeon John Eric Erickson, who claimed, “The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon.”
Or even Lord Kelvin, president of the Royal Society, who stated flatly in 1895, “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible,” and Charles Duell, commissioner of the U.S. Patent Office, who, in 1899, claimed that “Everything that can be invented has been invented.”
And of course, what qualifies as the most expensive gaffe in history was Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, who stated in 1943, “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”

[waltky]

Driverless cars improving?...

Data: Self-Driving Cars Need Less Human Help Than in Past
February 01, 2017 — Self-driving car prototypes appear to be getting better at negotiating California streets and highways without a human backup needing to intervene, according to data made public Wednesday by California transportation regulators.

The data reflect safety-related incidents reported by 11 companies that have been testing more than 100 vehicles on public roads, primarily in the Silicon Valley neighborhoods where the technology has grown up. The reports were made to California's Department of Motor Vehicles, which posted them online. The documents catalog the number of times from December 2015 through the end of November that humans took control from a car's software for safety-related reasons.

Waymo shows improvement

Waymo, as Google's self-driving car project was recently rebranded, did far more testing than the other 10 companies combined. Waymo reported that its fleet drove itself more than 635,000 miles with 124 safety-related “disengagements” — the equivalent of two incidents every 10,000 miles. That was a notable improvement over the prior year, when there were eight incidents per 10,000 miles. A reportable disengagement happens when the technology fails or the backup driver takes control out of concern the car is malfunctioning.

A fleet of Uber's Ford Fusion self-driving cars are shown during a demonstration of self-driving automotive technology in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Collisions must be reported

Though imperfect, the data are the best peek the public gets into the fiercely competitive world of self-driving cars and how the prototypes are performing. California required the disengagement reports as part of regulations governing testing on public roads. Separately, the state also requires companies to report any collisions involving its cars. The Department of Motor Vehicles has been working on regulations that will define how the technology can be rolled out to the public when companies believe it is ready. When that will happen depends on several factors, including regulators' readiness and company confidence the vehicles are safe.

Final rules due in six weeks

While Tesla's Elon Musk has been bullish, talking about months rather than years, companies such as Waymo have suggested 2017 or 2018 is more realistic. The state expects to release final version of the “public operation” regulations within six weeks, according to Melissa Figueroa, a spokeswoman for California's top transportation official. The Department of Motor Vehicles made public a first draft in December 2015, nearly a year after final rules were supposed to be in place, and has since revised the language based on developments at the federal level and input from industry and other groups.

http://www.voanews.com/a/self-drivin...p/3702356.html