Hurricane Harvey: My Thoughts

[Hoosier8]

We are now staring straight down the barrel of Hurricane Irma as well, which is currently a category 5 storm (perspective: Harvey was a category 4 storm when it made landfall) and appears to be on a path to hit southern Florida on Saturday. Even forgetting about the fact that the majority of climate scientists believe that Hurricane Harvey was, in fact, made far more severe by global warming, just use your common sense here for a moment: what are the natural odds that two different hurricanes of record-breaking proportions would hit the same country in the span of roughly two weeks? You don't have to be a scientist to gather that that's not likely a purely natural development.

Michael Mann isn't the majority of climate scientists and he isn't even a climate scientist. Not even the IPCC has gone that stupid. You are falling for every weather event is climate change.

[Green Arrow]

We are now staring straight down the barrel of Hurricane Irma as well, which is currently a category 5 storm (perspective: Harvey was a category 4 storm when it made landfall) and appears to be on a path to hit southern Florida on Saturday. Even forgetting about the fact that the majority of climate scientists believe that Hurricane Harvey was, in fact, made far more severe by global warming, just use your common sense here for a moment: what are the natural odds that two different hurricanes of record-breaking proportions would hit the same country in the span of roughly two weeks? You don't have to be a scientist to gather that that's not likely a purely natural development.

And now Jose is developing right behind Irma.

[IMPress Polly]

Green Arrow wrote:
And now Jose is developing right behind Irma.

This is true. The reason I didn't bring that one up is because we don't yet know how strong it will become and, more compellingly, because the meteorologists tell us that that one, in contrast to Irma, is unlikely to ever make landfall.

[Adelaide]

We are now staring straight down the barrel of Hurricane Irma as well, which is currently a category 5 storm (perspective: Harvey was a category 4 storm when it made landfall) and appears to be on a path to hit southern Florida on Saturday. Even forgetting about the fact that the majority of climate scientists believe that Hurricane Harvey was, in fact, made far more severe by global warming, just use your common sense here for a moment: what are the natural odds that two different hurricanes of record-breaking proportions would hit the same country in the span of roughly two weeks? You don't have to be a scientist to gather that that's not likely a purely natural development.

Hurricane seasons vary based on a lot of factors that have little to do with climate change. This year has been fairly inactive compared to past years. Far less deaths, too.

Doesn't mean climate change is not an issue or that it isn't influencing hurricane patterns, but it's a lot more complicated than that.

[Adelaide]

"You don't have to be a scientist to gather that that's not likely a purely natural development."

We can't know that @IMPress Polly Generally hurricane info before the 1850's is sparse to non existent. We pretty much have no idea how many or how strong hurricanes may have been through history.

And then there is that.

[Chris]

But we're going to get more storms like this, right? Because of global warming and all that? Maybe. Or maybe not.

"For the 21st century, some models project no change or a small reduction in the frequency of hurricanes, while others show an increase in frequency," according to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. "More recent work shows that there is a trade-off between intensity and frequency—that as warmer oceans bolster hurricane intensity, fewer storms actually form."

But, again, Harvey is a real outlier by any measure of storms. It's not the sort of event you expect on a regular basis—a "1-in-1,000-year flood event" according to the University of Wisconsin's Space Science and Engineering Center.

How do you plan for that? You really don't.

@ To Protect Against the Next Harvey, Forget Zoning and Roll Back Government Meddling Instead

[Peter1469]

Tropical storms have been less active the last dozen years. Perhaps we are returning to a normal tropical storm cycle.

[Green Arrow]

Hurricane seasons vary based on a lot of factors that have little to do with climate change. This year has been fairly inactive compared to past years. Far less deaths, too.

Doesn't mean climate change is not an issue or that it isn't influencing hurricane patterns, but it's a lot more complicated than that.

The worst hurricanes generally hit between August and October. This year for some reason ALL the hurricanes are opting to hit between August and October. So far, NOAA's prediction of a bigger than average season looks true.

[IMPress Polly]

Peter wrote:
Tropical storms have been less active the last dozen years. Perhaps we are returning to a normal tropical storm cycle.

Green Arrow wrote:
The worst hurricanes generally hit between August and October. This year for some reason ALL the hurricanes are opting to hit between August and October. So far, NOAA's prediction of a bigger than average season looks true.

You know who we should ask about things like this? @Chloe. She's our resident expert on seemingly all things related to the environment. Although I really doubt that global warming is not a factor here, she'd probably know the answer to that more definitively than the rest of us would.

EDIT: I have been ordered to post a link to the New York Times article I referenced in the OP, so here it is. Sorry, I just got lazy and didn't know it was against the rules not to include a link to everything you reference.