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    Axis Victory

    Question for our history buffs: at what point did victory become unachievable for the Axis?

    My view: after the failure to take Moscow in 1941. I do think it was likely that the government would have fallen. This wasn't 1813. If the beating Soviet forces took all along the front had been capped off by the fall of the capital I think that would have been the end for the Soviet government or at least Stalin. Negotiations would have ensued. The survival of the Soviet state coupled with the entry of the USA made victory impossible, IMO. Not a stalemate of some kind. I think that was still achievable through the Summer of 1943.

    I am not considering any other what-ifs here (e.g. no declaration of war on the US by Germany, increased cooperation between the Japanese and Germans etc.)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister D View Post
    Question for our history buffs: at what point did victory become unachievable for the Axis?

    My view: after the failure to take Moscow in 1941. I do think it was likely that the government would have fallen. This wasn't 1813. If the beating Soviet forces took all along the front had been capped off by the fall of the capital I think that would have been the end for the Soviet government or at least Stalin. Negotiations would have ensued. The survival of the Soviet state coupled with the entry of the USA made victory impossible, IMO. Not a stalemate of some kind. I think that was still achievable through the Summer of 1943.

    I am not considering any other what-ifs here (e.g. no declaration of war on the US by Germany, increased cooperation between the Japanese and Germans etc.)
    Maybe I'm over simplifying here, but I would say it was over the moment Operation Barbarossa began in June. They simply took too long to invade.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kathaariancode View Post
    Maybe I'm over simplifying here, but I would say it was over the moment Operation Barbarossa began in June. They simply took too long to invade.
    We more or less agree. I'm focusing on the failure to take Moscow and the late invasion date was no doubt a factor in that failure. Does it explain the failure completely? I don't think it does but I don't think any one factor could.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister D View Post
    We more or less agree. I'm focusing on the failure to take Moscow and the late invasion date was no doubt a factor in that failure. Does it explain the failure completely? I don't think it does but I don't think any one factor could.
    You're right. It's hard to point to a single factor. You gotta take into account the whole big picture. The involvement of the US, the full impracticability of the Hunger Plan, the failure to take Moscow and the underlying late invasion all contribute.

    What I never understood, maybe this is naive, is why the Nazis wasted so much resource on carrying out their ethnic cleansing goals around the same time?

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    Quote Originally Posted by kathaariancode View Post
    You're right. It's hard to point to a single factor. You gotta take into account the whole big picture. The involvement of the US, the full impracticability of the Hunger Plan, the failure to take Moscow and the underlying late invasion all contribute.

    What I never understood, maybe this is naive, is why the Nazis wasted so much resource on carrying out their ethnic cleansing goals around the same time?
    Because they believed in them. We tend to think everyone thinks exactly like we do. It may not seem rational to us but the Nazis became even more murderous when it was clear they were losing. The thinking being that while we may lose this war we will finish the job.
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    As I recall, the final decision (no pun intended) to exterminate western European Jewry was not made until early 1942. IMO, this influenced by war with the US and perhaps the failure of Barbarossa.
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    With regard to a stalemate of some kind, I think that had Germany not launched Operation Citadel in the Summer of 1943 but switched over to the strategic defense the Soviet offensives of late 1943 and 1944 would have met much more capable resistance. IMO, this would have made the potential for Soviet exhaustion (they were scrapping the bottom of the barrel by 1945) greater.
    Last edited by Mister D; 11-15-2012 at 04:59 PM.
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    I haven't said much about Japan because Japan was totally outgunned in the Pacific Theater. I don't believe Japan ever had a chance of winning the war.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister D View Post
    Because they believed in them. We tend to think everyone thinks exactly like we do. It may not seem rational to us but the Nazis became even more murderous when it was clear they were losing. The thinking being that while we may lose this war we will finish the job.
    I guess that makes sense given the desperation the loss caused. But was Hitler destined to fail from the get go? One of his reasons for invading the Soviet Union was to ensure that the Reich would get enough calories to continue the war effort.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kathaariancode View Post
    I guess that makes sense given the desperation the loss caused. But was Hitler destined to fail from the get go? One of his reasons for invading the Soviet Union was to ensure that the Reich would get enough calories to continue the war effort.
    It was an inexcusable waste of equipment that would have been much better deployed on the defensive. The Germans managed to inflict significantly greater casualties than they took at Kursk but they simply did not have the resources that the Russians possessed. Any chance for a knockout was long gone so, IMO, this was a disastrous campaign that spelled doom from the get go.

    I don't think Hitler wanted anything more than Russian territory for "living space". Had that been obtained I think the war would have been over.
    Whoever criticizes capitalism, while approving immigration, whose working class is its first victim, had better shut up. Whoever criticizes immigration, while remaining silent about capitalism, should do the same.


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