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    Axis Victory

    Question for our history buffs: at what point did victory become unachievable for the Axis?

    My view: after the failure to take Moscow in 1941. I do think it was likely that the government would have fallen. This wasn't 1813. If the beating Soviet forces took all along the front had been capped off by the fall of the capital I think that would have been the end for the Soviet government or at least Stalin. Negotiations would have ensued. The survival of the Soviet state coupled with the entry of the USA made victory impossible, IMO. Not a stalemate of some kind. I think that was still achievable through the Summer of 1943.

    I am not considering any other what-ifs here (e.g. no declaration of war on the US by Germany, increased cooperation between the Japanese and Germans etc.)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister D View Post
    Question for our history buffs: at what point did victory become unachievable for the Axis?

    My view: after the failure to take Moscow in 1941. I do think it was likely that the government would have fallen. This wasn't 1813. If the beating Soviet forces took all along the front had been capped off by the fall of the capital I think that would have been the end for the Soviet government or at least Stalin. Negotiations would have ensued. The survival of the Soviet state coupled with the entry of the USA made victory impossible, IMO. Not a stalemate of some kind. I think that was still achievable through the Summer of 1943.

    I am not considering any other what-ifs here (e.g. no declaration of war on the US by Germany, increased cooperation between the Japanese and Germans etc.)
    Maybe I'm over simplifying here, but I would say it was over the moment Operation Barbarossa began in June. They simply took too long to invade.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kathaariancode View Post
    Maybe I'm over simplifying here, but I would say it was over the moment Operation Barbarossa began in June. They simply took too long to invade.
    We more or less agree. I'm focusing on the failure to take Moscow and the late invasion date was no doubt a factor in that failure. Does it explain the failure completely? I don't think it does but I don't think any one factor could.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister D View Post
    We more or less agree. I'm focusing on the failure to take Moscow and the late invasion date was no doubt a factor in that failure. Does it explain the failure completely? I don't think it does but I don't think any one factor could.
    You're right. It's hard to point to a single factor. You gotta take into account the whole big picture. The involvement of the US, the full impracticability of the Hunger Plan, the failure to take Moscow and the underlying late invasion all contribute.

    What I never understood, maybe this is naive, is why the Nazis wasted so much resource on carrying out their ethnic cleansing goals around the same time?

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    Quote Originally Posted by kathaariancode View Post
    You're right. It's hard to point to a single factor. You gotta take into account the whole big picture. The involvement of the US, the full impracticability of the Hunger Plan, the failure to take Moscow and the underlying late invasion all contribute.

    What I never understood, maybe this is naive, is why the Nazis wasted so much resource on carrying out their ethnic cleansing goals around the same time?
    Because they believed in them. We tend to think everyone thinks exactly like we do. It may not seem rational to us but the Nazis became even more murderous when it was clear they were losing. The thinking being that while we may lose this war we will finish the job.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister D View Post
    Because they believed in them. We tend to think everyone thinks exactly like we do. It may not seem rational to us but the Nazis became even more murderous when it was clear they were losing. The thinking being that while we may lose this war we will finish the job.
    I guess that makes sense given the desperation the loss caused. But was Hitler destined to fail from the get go? One of his reasons for invading the Soviet Union was to ensure that the Reich would get enough calories to continue the war effort.

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    As I recall, the final decision (no pun intended) to exterminate western European Jewry was not made until early 1942. IMO, this influenced by war with the US and perhaps the failure of Barbarossa.
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    I haven't said much about Japan because Japan was totally outgunned in the Pacific Theater. I don't believe Japan ever had a chance of winning the war.
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    With regard to a stalemate of some kind, I think that had Germany not launched Operation Citadel in the Summer of 1943 but switched over to the strategic defense the Soviet offensives of late 1943 and 1944 would have met much more capable resistance. IMO, this would have made the potential for Soviet exhaustion (they were scrapping the bottom of the barrel by 1945) greater.
    Last edited by Mister D; 11-15-2012 at 05:59 PM.
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    First off, great OP question and thread. I think the German position in the USSR could have been turned into a German victory. I think Germany declaring war on the US was the fatal error. Hitler made many critical errors. I'd say that if he made a few less, then Nazi Germany may have survived.

    If Hitler had not declared war and made diplomatic overtures, he would have put FDR in a very difficult position Public Opinion would have certainly wanted Japan crushed, and the US has a large German population that would not have appreciated FDR declaring war on Germany. Hitler's declaration of war on the US allowed FDR and Churchill to do exactly what they wanted to do. It ensured that Germany would face a two front war unless the USSR was knocked out, which was of course the most difficult feat.

    I've read at some point early on (1941-42) Hitler had many scientists taken off of projects and sent into the front line. This was reversed, but it ensured that many superior weapons were denied to the Wehrmacht until the very end of the war. They may have played a key role in blunting the Allied air offence over Germany.

    Hitler's strategy was flawed. He went for Moscow, then he backed off. He went for the oil fields, then he focused on Stalingrad. If he had simply seized the oil fields in the Caucuses, he could have starved the Red Army of its oil. He could also have laid a trap for a counter-offensive, when the Russians attacked the army group holding the oil fields.

    He could also have avoided war with the US and doubled down on the U-Boat campaign against the UK. This was his best chance to end the threat of a prolonged two front war. With the US tied up in the Pacific, a starving UK could have been persuaded to accept a peace settlement. Churchill may well have been thrown out of office by a hungry nation.
    Last edited by DonGlock26; 11-17-2012 at 12:12 PM.

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