Thirty years of hurricanes

[Green Arrow]

Climate is a statistic of weather, what does that even mean?

I think most get what I mean without tossing a bunch of semantics at it.

Weather is short term, climate long. Climate change is reflected in weather change, as Ade said, but the opposite is not so.

"The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time.

"When we talk about climate change, we talk about changes in long-term averages of daily weather."

@ https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/n...e_weather.html

The point is a single hurricane, or even hurricane season is not climate change as some claim.

It's not semantics, it's the difference between being correct and incorrect.

"Statistic" is not a big word. Climate plays into weather, the conditions of the climate largely determine how the weather behaves. Peak hurricane season (August-October) is the peak for hurricanes because that's when the waters of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are warmest (climate), which creates the conditions that hurricanes (weather) need to form. You can't separate climate from weather and yes, based on how climate and weather interact, it's perfectly reasonable to suggest that "climate change" could be the cause of severe weather conditions like hurricanes. Whether or not it's actually happening.

[Chris]

It's not semantics, it's the difference between being correct and incorrect.

"Statistic" is not a big word. Climate plays into weather, the conditions of the climate largely determine how the weather behaves. Peak hurricane season (August-October) is the peak for hurricanes because that's when the waters of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are warmest (climate), which creates the conditions that hurricanes (weather) need to form. You can't separate climate from weather and yes, based on how climate and weather interact, it's perfectly reasonable to suggest that "climate change" could be the cause of severe weather conditions like hurricanes. Whether or not it's actually happening.

Know all that but still a change in the weather is not a change in climate, as some would claim, and no, the data in the OP show no significant change in climate.

[Chris]

Another claim about climate change:



It's an interesting video explaining storm surge but in the middle this claim is made:



In short the claim is global warming amplifies storm surge.

Perhaps that's true but the implication in the video is that Harvey's storm surge was so much worse because of climate change.

BS.

The storm surge for Harvey was around 6 feet or 2 meters:



Source: http://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey

But in 1886 the storm surge at the same location was almost 15 feet or almost 5 meters:



Source: http://surge.srcc.lsu.edu/data.html

If climage change, i.e., global warming amplifies storm surge, then why is it now so much less than in the past? The temps in TX have been triple digits most of the summer.

[Peter1469]

If I remember correctly, Katrina has a 25' storm surge in Mississippi.

[Chris]

If I remember correctly, Katrina has a 25' storm surge in Mississippi.

Known for its storm surge, Katrina’s highest surge was found in a zone from just east of the eye near Bay St. Louis, MS east to the northern reaches of Mobile Bay. The Mobile State Docks measured the highest storm surge of 11.45 feet, while the lowest was 4.1 feet in the Santa Rosa Sound in northwest Florida. Storm surge was as high as 12-14 feet in Bayou La Batre, AL and likely close to 20 feet along the Mississippi-Alabama border.

@ https://www.weather.gov/mob/katrina

[Chris]

The history only goes back so far on this. Storm surge used to be call tide surge.

Ike 2008 (SLOSH Historical Run)

Hurricane Ike made landfall near the north end of Galveston Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Storm surges of 15-20 feet above normal tide levels occurred along the Bolivar Peninsula of Texas and in much of the Galveston Bay area. Property damage from Ike is estimated at $24.9 billion. More...

Katrina 2005 (SLOSH Historical Run)

Katrina was one of the most devastating hurricanes in the history of the United States. It produced catastrophic damage - estimated at $75 billion in the New Orleans area and along the Mississippi coast - and is the costliest U. S. hurricane on record. Storm surge flooding of 25 to 28 feet above normal tide levels was associated with Katrina. More...

Dennis 2005 (SLOSH Historical Run)

Dennis affected much of Florida, and its effects extended well inland over portions of the southeastern United States with the maximum amount rainfall of 12.80 inches occuring near Camden, Alabama. Storm surge flooding of 7-9 ft produced considerable storm surge-related damage near St. Marks, Florida, well to the east of the landfall location. The damage associated with Dennis in the United States is estimated at $2.23 billion. More...

Isabel 2003 (SLOSH Historical Run)

Isabel was the worst hurricane to affect the Chesapeake Bay region since 1933. Storm surge values of more than 8 feet flooded rivers that flowed into the bay across Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Washington, D.C. Isabel was the most intense hurricane of the 2003 season and directly resulted in 17 deaths and more than $3 billion in damages. More...

Opal 1995 (SLOSH Historical Run)

Hurricane Opal made landfall near Pensacola Beach, Florida as a Category 3 hurricane. The storm caused extensive storm surge damage from Pensacola Beach to Mexico Beach (a span of 120 miles) with a maximum storm tide of 24 feet, recorded near Fort Walton Beach. Damage estimates for Opal were near $3 billion. More...

Hugo 1989 (SLOSH Historical Run)

Hugo impacted the southeastern United States, including South Carolina cities Charleston and Myrtle Beach. Hugo was responsible for 60 deaths and $7 billion in damages, with the highest storm surge estimated at 19.8 feet at Romain Retreat, South Carolina. More...

Camille 1969 (SLOSH Historical Run)

Camille was a Category 5 hurricane, the most powerful on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum winds of more than 155 mph and storm surge flooding of 24 feet that devastated the Mississippi coast. The final death count for the U.S. is listed at 256. This includes 143 on the Gulf coast and another 113 from the Virginia floods. More...

Audrey 1957 (SLOSH Historical Run)

There were 390 deaths associated with Audrey as the result of a storm surge in excess of 12 feet, which inundated the flat coast of southwestern Louisiana as far as 25 miles inland in some places. More...

New England 1938 (SLOSH Historical Run)

The Long Island Express was a fast-moving Category 3 hurricane that struck Long Island and New England with little warning on September 21. A storm surge of 10 to 12 ft inundated the coasts of Rhode Island, Connecticut, southeastern Massachusetts, and Long Island, NY, especially in Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay. Six hundred people died due to the storm. More...

Galveston 1900 (SLOSH Historical Run)

At least 8,000 people died when hurricane storm tides (the surge plus the astronomical tide) of 8-15 feet inundated most of the island city of Galveston, TX and adjacent areas on the mainland. More...

@ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

[Newpublius]

From Thirty years of hurricanes





Hurricanes are changes in weather, not climate.

Well to be fair wait for a blizzard, right?

[Chris]

Here's another collection: https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...us_records.asp

Katrina was definitely the record breaker.

But closer to Harvey's location:

Port Lavaca:
22.8', Hurricane Carla, 1961


Harvey was 6.7 feet.

[Chris]

Well to be fair wait for a blizzard, right?

In TX? Would have to be another Ice Age.

[Chris]

And if you think Katrina was bad....

"The Bathurst Bay Cyclone, also known as Tropical Cyclone Mahina, which struck Bathurst Bay, Australia on March 5, 1899, is generally credited with the world record for storm surge. The cyclone's storm surge is variously listed at 13 - 14.6 meters (43 - 48 feet)."

@ https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...ld_records.asp


43-48 feet.




1899