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Thread: Warming seas could lead to 70 percent increase in hurricane-related financial loss

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    Warming seas could lead to 70 percent increase in hurricane-related financial loss

    Hurricane-related financial loss could increase more than 70 percent by 2100 if oceans warm at the worst-case-scenario rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, according to a new study. The study used a combination of hurricane modeling and information in FEMA's HAZUS database to reach its conclusions.

    The study was based on the IPPC's Fifth Assessment, issued in 2013 and 2014. The worst-case ocean warming scenario the loss study is based on was not anticipated or included in the prior report, published in 2007."That suggests that these scenarios are evolving," Rosowsky said. "What is today's worst case scenario will likely become more probable in the IPCC's future reports if little action is taken to slow the effects of climate change."The increasing severity of hurricanes will also affect hurricane modeling, Rosowsky said, and consequent predictions of damage and financial loss. In a postscript to the paper, which will also be published as a chapter in a forthcoming book, Rosowsky cites the three catastrophic storms of the current hurricane season, Harvey, Irma and Maria, as examples of events so severe they will shift the assumptions about the likelihood that such severe hurricanes will occur in the future.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...1012151803.htm

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    Climatologists have changed their predictions since the IPPC's Fifth Assessment was published. Their models are all wrong.

    And NASA now says that ocean levels are dropping, not rising. Thanks to Obama, no doubt.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Climatologists have changed their predictions since the IPPC's Fifth Assessment was published. Their models are all wrong.

    And NASA now says that ocean levels are dropping, not rising. Thanks to Obama, no doubt.
    Wrong. That is not true.

    Negate the climate change is absurd.

    The NASA always has said that the temperature of the sea is becoming warmer. And it has negative effects in the climate like the raise of hurricanes or even worse, that hurricanes become closer than ever to the Iberian Peninsule (Portugal and Spain).

    Negate that there is a global warming is absolutely ridiculous and the negative effects in the world are clear.

    But, there is no surprise in a conservative forum where the negationism will be bigger. Not let that the reality break the illusions.
    WORK AND FIGHT FOR THE REVOLUTION AND AGAINST THE INJUSTICE.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kilgram View Post
    Wrong. That is not true.

    Negate the climate change is absurd.

    The NASA always has said that the temperature of the sea is becoming warmer. And it has negative effects in the climate like the raise of hurricanes or even worse, that hurricanes become closer than ever to the Iberian Peninsule (Portugal and Spain).

    Negate that there is a global warming is absolutely ridiculous and the negative effects in the world are clear.

    But, there is no surprise in a conservative forum where the negationism will be bigger. Not let that the reality break the illusions.
    lol
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trish View Post
    Hurricane-related financial loss could increase more than 70 percent by 2100 if oceans warm at the worst-case-scenario rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, according to a new study. The study used a combination of hurricane modeling and information in FEMA's HAZUS database to reach its conclusions.

    The study was based on the IPPC's Fifth Assessment, issued in 2013 and 2014. The worst-case ocean warming scenario the loss study is based on was not anticipated or included in the prior report, published in 2007."That suggests that these scenarios are evolving," Rosowsky said. "What is today's worst case scenario will likely become more probable in the IPCC's future reports if little action is taken to slow the effects of climate change."The increasing severity of hurricanes will also affect hurricane modeling, Rosowsky said, and consequent predictions of damage and financial loss. In a postscript to the paper, which will also be published as a chapter in a forthcoming book, Rosowsky cites the three catastrophic storms of the current hurricane season, Harvey, Irma and Maria, as examples of events so severe they will shift the assumptions about the likelihood that such severe hurricanes will occur in the future.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...1012151803.htm
    Last time this was discussed I provided history of way worse hurricanes going way back. There's little change in the climate with respect to hurricanes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Last time this was discussed I provided history of way worse hurricanes going way back. There's little change in the climate with respect to hurricanes.
    The real oddity was 12 or so years with no major hits on the US. 2005-2017.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Climatologists have changed their predictions since the IPPC's Fifth Assessment was published. Their models are all wrong.

    And NASA now says that ocean levels are dropping, not rising. Thanks to Obama, no doubt.
    Agreed

    Anytime I see the IPCC as a quote (attribution) my eyes roll. They have lost any real credibility to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Climatologists have changed their predictions since the IPPC's Fifth Assessment was published. Their models are all wrong.

    And NASA now says that ocean levels are dropping, not rising. Thanks to Obama, no doubt.
    Let's try and keep politics out of this. Politics makes people stupid and blind to facts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Last time this was discussed I provided history of way worse hurricanes going way back. There's little change in the climate with respect to hurricanes.
    Even if a pattern hasn't had any significant changes it doesn't mean there isn't any impact or that it hasn't further destabilized a location/area.

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    Peter wrote:
    Climatologists have changed their predictions since the IPPC's Fifth Assessment was published. Their models are all wrong.

    And NASA now says that ocean levels are dropping, not rising. Thanks to Obama, no doubt.
    Here is the type of data that you ask me to believe indicates a long-term drop-off in sea levels:

    20170727_nasa1.jpg

    As you can plainly see, the phenomenon of sea levels dropping briefly has occurred many times over the last 25 years, and yet we can still see a clear long-term trend here, can we not?

    What you ask me to believe is the logical equivalent of suggesting that we have just entered into a long-term period of global cooling because the seasons have recently changed from summer to fall. That's Fox News-level reasoning, not actual science.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 10-14-2017 at 04:10 PM.

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