Hurricane-related financial loss could increase more than 70 percent by 2100 if oceans warm at the worst-case-scenario rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, according to a new study. The study used a combination of hurricane modeling and information in FEMA's HAZUS database to reach its conclusions.
The study was based on the IPPC's Fifth Assessment, issued in 2013 and 2014. The worst-case ocean warming scenario the loss study is based on was not anticipated or included in the prior report, published in 2007."That suggests that these scenarios are evolving," Rosowsky said. "What is today's worst case scenario will likely become more probable in the IPCC's future reports if little action is taken to slow the effects of climate change."The increasing severity of hurricanes will also affect hurricane modeling, Rosowsky said, and consequent predictions of damage and financial loss. In a postscript to the paper, which will also be published as a chapter in a forthcoming book, Rosowsky cites the three catastrophic storms of the current hurricane season, Harvey, Irma and Maria, as examples of events so severe they will shift the assumptions about the likelihood that such severe hurricanes will occur in the future.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...1012151803.htm