Turkey Enters the Fray

[Peter1469]

Turkey Enters the Fray

I have posted on this before. This is Geopolitical Futures take on the situation.

Over the weekend, Turkey commenced Operation Olive Branch in a small part of northwestern Syria called Afrin. The outcome of the incursion should not create much suspense: Turkey will conquer Afrin with relative ease. The importance of Turkey’s incursion lies instead in the challenges it poses to relations between Turkey and the three other foreign powers invested in Syria’s future: Russia, Iran and the United States. For the second time since 2011, Turkey has deployed its military in Syria from a position of weakness. It will shape the future of Syria from a position of strength.

Never in the field of human conflict has such a limited military operation been threatened for so long: Turkey warned of the invasion of the Syrian Kurdish region of Afrin for almost a year. Serious military operations are not announced via public relations campaigns because the element of surprise is crucial to achieving victory. One reason for Turkey’s bravado is that it doesn’t need the element of surprise to achieve victory in Afrin. The most generous estimates of enemy combatants in Afrin are around 10,000 fighters, lacking armor, artillery and air assets. Turkey has roughly 40,000 troops on the border with plenty of all three. The most serious impediment to Turkey’s invasion was the presence of a small number of Russian soldiers, but once Russia pulled those soldiers out, Afrin’s conquest was assured.


There is a second, more important reason for Turkey’s boisterous year of threats against Afrin: Turkey did not want to invade. It fears being dragged into a quagmire in Syria. When the Syrian civil war began, Turkey relied on proxies to bring down the Bashar Assad regime. When that failed, Turkey made amends with Russia and cosied up to Iran to secure its interests through diplomacy: the so-called Astana Troika. Turkey’s goal in agreeing to the cease-fire negotiated in Astana was to buy its proxies time to strengthen themselves and to prevent the Assad regime from reconquering the country. If Assad could not be defeated, then at least his regime, long hostile to Ankara, would not be allowed to return to its full strength, and at least outside powers would respect that Turkish wish.

[Ransom]

Indeed, among the proxies that Turkey supported in opposition to Assad was the Islamic State. I also never like quotes within these pieces like "Never in the field of human conflict has such a limited military operation been threatened for so long." Interesting read though, I'd like @donttread to weigh in here. After he reads though, this 'Astana Troika' that reveal influences on the region that exclude the United States who is often given credit where none is due regarding violence and chaos in the Middle East. Learning so important and all.

[donttread]

Indeed, among the proxies that Turkey supported in opposition to Assad was the Islamic State. I also never like quotes within these pieces like "Never in the field of human conflict has such a limited military operation been threatened for so long." Interesting read though, I'd like @donttread to weigh in here. After he reads though, this 'Astana Troika' that reveal influences on the region that exclude the United States who is often given credit where none is due regarding violence and chaos in the Middle East. Learning so important and all.

OK point taken Turkey also wants to keep Syria unstable. I did not know that, thanks. At least they , unlike us seem to recognize it for the "quagmire" it is. I never said we were the ONLY controling $#@!s in the ME and have often said they are in fact a bee hive. A bee hive we need to stop kicking . I am not vested in how Turkey's actions blow up in their faces but I am vested in how American actions blow up in our faces. Quite literally.

[Ransom]

OK point taken Turkey also wants to keep Syria unstable. I did not know that, thanks. At least they , unlike us seem to recognize it for the "quagmire" it is. I never said we were the ONLY controling $#@!s in the ME and have often said they are in fact a bee hive. A bee hive we need to stop kicking . I am not vested in how Turkey's actions blow up in their faces but I am vested in how American actions blow up in our faces. Quite literally.

Donttread, what is the alternative. I'll agree with you to some extent. Policies concerning Libya and Egypt for example I thought gave rise to Islamic extremism in both nations. Kicking up beehives if you will. But look to Syria. You had small ball players Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State. You had opposition Syrian government forces, pro government forces, the Syrian military, Iranian special forces. There is this Troika mentioned in Pete's link there, Iran-Turkey-Russia. Then there are groups seeking autonomy looking to use the conflict to break off from government such as Iraq's. There are so many influences on this region both modern day and I hate to repeat historic that don't involve the United States or our policies......at all. The Islamic State do often blamed on America and our 'meddling.' This article speaks to the many influences meddling in Syria and the entire region.

But then once established, the Islamic State was denied for far too long, donttread. The unwillingness to use our military and indeed not only kick the bee hive but completely destroy it enabled the Islamic State to walk over great expanses of the Levant in Toyota pickup trucks. You cannot allow any hive to fester and indeed plot to kill others abroad. You cannot allow recruitment and these hives turn to colonies and they begin bringing down aircraft and stinging concerts in Paris. You cannot just sit there and wait for it to happen, donttread. You cannot just sit there and talk about who's fault it is, lecture on about bee hives and what not.

You must go smash these hives and put the queens in a jar in Cuba.

[Mini Me]

Turkey is a rougue aggressor now!

[Peter1469]

Turkey is a rougue aggressor now!

Why is that? Each nation has its own national security interests. For Turkey, the Kurds are as much a problem as ISIL is to Iraq and Syria.

[Ransom]

What is a rougue aggressor? Do I need to Google that or something. Is that an antibiotic, a woman's makeup line.....or the latest punk band?

[Peter1469]

What is a rougue aggressor? Do I need to Google that or something. Is that an antibiotic, a woman's makeup line.....or the latest punk band?

It is a made up term by someone who doesn't understand that nations act in their self interest.

[Mini Me]

Why is that? Each nation has its own national security interests. For Turkey, the Kurds are as much a problem as ISIL is to Iraq and Syria.

The Kurds deserve their own nation!
Just like Palestinians do!

[Peter1469]

The Kurds deserve their own nation!
Just like Palestinians do!

It is not in the cards for either group.