I think that you should sell

[Kacper]

Yes markets always crash when the economy is booming and the dollar is gaining strength, it went up way too fast and taking profits was the right thing to do.

4 thousand points of correction will be just right to get the ball rolling again.

I think it needs to be a little steeper before it settles than 4K points, but we will see. 1100 points down in a day is not random profit taking. It still needs to get back down to around 19K I think before we will have a more realistic sustained and logical growth pattern for the Dow. Pretty much it needs to give back all the Trump era gains that appeared as irrational exuberance unless the economy kicks into overdrive, which it won't.

[Peter1469]

I think it needs to be a little steeper before it settles than 4K points, but we will see. 1100 points down in a day is not random profit taking. It still needs to get back down to around 19K I think before we will have a more realistic sustained and logical growth pattern for the Dow. Pretty much it needs to give back all the Trump era gains that appeared as irrational exuberance unless the economy kicks into overdrive, which it won't.

Overdrive causes crashes and inflation.

We need to aim for 3% GDP growth per year.

[Kacper]

Overdrive causes crashes and inflation.

We need to aim for 3% GDP growth per year.

Depends on what part of the economy. The stock market is increasingly detached from GDP at this point. That is where all the inflation is happening. I am not sure 4% GDP instead of 3% or 2% would really translate into the market trending accordingly. I am personally fine with 2.5% GDP growth if inflation is kept in the 1.5-1.8% range so we have 1% nominal growth give or take. I guess I look at it this way: If Bill Gates bought the Mona Lisa for $1B, the mona lisa is only worth $1B as long as there as a Buffett or Tech Twink out there with $1B burning a hole in his pocket. The wealth of Wall Street doesn't concern me because it is largely smoke and mirrors. It is why I think more in terms of inflation adjusted performance in economics.

[Peter1469]

Depends on what part of the economy. The stock market is increasingly detached from GDP at this point. That is where all the inflation is happening. I am not sure 4% GDP instead of 3% or 2% would really translate into the market trending accordingly. I am personally fine with 2.5% GDP growth if inflation is kept in the 1.5-1.8% range so we have 1% nominal growth give or take. I guess I look at it this way: If Bill Gates bought the Mona Lisa for $1B, the mona lisa is only worth $1B as long as there as a Buffett or Tech Twink out there with $1B burning a hole in his pocket. The wealth of Wall Street doesn't concern me because it is largely smoke and mirrors. It is why I think more in terms of inflation adjusted performance in economics.

The profits or losses of the companies in the market add to the GDP, not the market itself.

[Kacper]

The profits or losses of the companies in the market add to the GDP, not the market itself.

Not really. GDP and corporate profits have a fairly weak correlation over time.

[Trumpster]

I think it needs to be a little steeper before it settles than 4K points, but we will see. 1100 points down in a day is not random profit taking. It still needs to get back down to around 19K I think before we will have a more realistic sustained and logical growth pattern for the Dow. Pretty much it needs to give back all the Trump era gains that appeared as irrational exuberance unless the economy kicks into overdrive, which it won't.

That sounds like you might have gotten out of the market when it hit 19K on the way up. As far as "irrational exuberance" of the Trump era, I have to disagree with your pessimism. Have you been getting your news from liberal news sources? The market was booming because it typically looks ahead, and many large corporations are using part of their windfall to buy back their own stock.

That's not to say that we don't need a correction, but to predict 19K on the Dow sounds like wishful thinking.

[Tahuyaman]

I stayed in metals a little too long and have some Gold that I need to off load,

could you all sell some of your stocks

I am watching the panic in the Stock Market. And anyone that did not see a correction coming is crazy.

401K participants that are over 55, watch the bond markets, Interest Rates are rising, and this Correction us bit likely to be short and fast. If Bond and interest rates increase, it might be time to move to securities after the market recovers.

I don’t see any panic. Over the last three months the stock market’s rise was meteoric. This correction was long overdue. Getting out of the market right now would be a mistake.


I've never been a fan of buying gold or other precious metals. You can’t spend it.

[Kacper]

That sounds like you might have gotten out of the market when it hit 19K on the way up. As far as "irrational exuberance" of the Trump era, I have to disagree with your pessimism. Have you been getting your news from liberal news sources? The market was booming because it typically looks ahead, and many large corporations are using part of their windfall to buy back their own stock.

That's not to say that we don't need a correction, but to predict 19K on the Dow sounds like wishful thinking.

I am in the market for the next 35 years or so thanks to 401K, so no it is not "liberal news" or "wishful thinking". Yields are down and P/E's are up from a year ago. The prices are not justified.

[Peter1469]

Not really. GDP and corporate profits have a fairly weak correlation over time.

True if you look at just GDP v. corporate profits.

But corporate profits work themselves into the economy and become part of the GDP. If a company that I have stock in uses its profits to give me a divined, then I use it to purchase stuff- we now have contributed to the GDP.

[Peter1469]

I don’t see any panic. Over the last three months the stock market’s rise was meteoric. This correction was long overdue. Getting out of the market right now would be a mistake.


I've never been a fan of buying gold or other precious metals. You can’t spend it.

The market didn't drop enough for a correction, which I believe is 8%.

You don't buy precious metals to buy stuff. It is a hedge against a drop in the value of the dollar. If the dollar lost 50% of its value you have half value in your dollars. Your gold and silver will retain its value pre-crash.