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Thread: Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change?

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    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
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    Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change?

    Judith Curry calls climate change a wicked problem.

    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    The short answer is no. Models are designed to explain past data. The more data that has to be fit into that model, the more unreliable the model becomes as far as future predictions. In addition, much of the climate models are based on assumptions and, unfortunately, a lot of the data that is sold off as real is modeled data not actual real world measurements. The climate is clearly changing ,as climate always has, but why it is, where it is going, etc., is still uncertain.

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    Chris (02-05-2018)

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    Curry is a very professional scientist who explains the problems with the current models very well.
    Alea iacta est

    Check out the blog.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Curry is a very professional scientist who explains the problems with the current models very well.
    She was the one who first discovered the warming hiatus. She was attacked terribly for it by consensus scientists. She was proven right. Now she tries to explain it.

    First I've heard of Will Happer.
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    Physicists tend to look down on climate scientists.
    Alea iacta est

    Check out the blog.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Physicists tend to look down on climate scientists.
    Where do you get that fiction from?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Common Sense View Post
    Where do you get that fiction from?
    From physicists. Did you watch the video? The guy said what climate scientists do is not science.

    I have heard that is other sources written by physicists and astrophysicists. Computer models are more of a social science thing. Not a hard science thing.
    Alea iacta est

    Check out the blog.


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    Can computer models predict the winner of the Superbowl?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change?

    No. Why? Garbage in, garbage out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Physicists tend to look down on climate scientists.
    Quote Originally Posted by Common Sense View Post
    Where do you get that fiction from?
    Why would you dispute that?

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