User Tag List

+ Reply to Thread
Results 1 to 10 of 10

Thread: Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change?

  1. #1
    Points: 398,239, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 78.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassYour first GroupOverdrive50000 Experience PointsTagger First ClassVeteran
    Awards:
    Discussion Ender
    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    388780
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    133,945
    Points
    398,239
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    12,524
    Thanked 36,348x in 27,020 Posts
    Mentioned
    1592 Post(s)
    Tagged
    2 Thread(s)

    Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change?

    Judith Curry calls climate change a wicked problem.

    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

  2. #2
    Points: 5,766, Level: 18
    Level completed: 3%, Points required for next Level: 584
    Overall activity: 36.0%
    Achievements:
    3 months registered5000 Experience Points
    Kacper's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    1023
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    2,404
    Points
    5,766
    Level
    18
    Thanks Given
    495
    Thanked 1,013x in 745 Posts
    Mentioned
    9 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    The short answer is no. Models are designed to explain past data. The more data that has to be fit into that model, the more unreliable the model becomes as far as future predictions. In addition, much of the climate models are based on assumptions and, unfortunately, a lot of the data that is sold off as real is modeled data not actual real world measurements. The climate is clearly changing ,as climate always has, but why it is, where it is going, etc., is still uncertain.

  3. The Following User Says Thank You to Kacper For This Useful Post:

    Chris (02-05-2018)

  4. #3
    Original Ranter
    Points: 439,443, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 77.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Posting Award
    Peter1469's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    408161
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    NOVA
    Posts
    135,713
    Points
    439,443
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    78,377
    Thanked 59,130x in 40,660 Posts
    Mentioned
    2111 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Curry is a very professional scientist who explains the problems with the current models very well.
    Alea iacta est

    Check out the blog.


  5. #4
    Points: 398,239, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 78.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassYour first GroupOverdrive50000 Experience PointsTagger First ClassVeteran
    Awards:
    Discussion Ender
    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    388780
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    133,945
    Points
    398,239
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    12,524
    Thanked 36,348x in 27,020 Posts
    Mentioned
    1592 Post(s)
    Tagged
    2 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Curry is a very professional scientist who explains the problems with the current models very well.
    She was the one who first discovered the warming hiatus. She was attacked terribly for it by consensus scientists. She was proven right. Now she tries to explain it.

    First I've heard of Will Happer.
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

  6. The Following User Says Thank You to Chris For This Useful Post:

    Peter1469 (02-05-2018)

  7. #5
    Original Ranter
    Points: 439,443, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 77.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Posting Award
    Peter1469's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    408161
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    NOVA
    Posts
    135,713
    Points
    439,443
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    78,377
    Thanked 59,130x in 40,660 Posts
    Mentioned
    2111 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Physicists tend to look down on climate scientists.
    Alea iacta est

    Check out the blog.


  8. #6
    Points: 66,892, Level: 63
    Level completed: 16%, Points required for next Level: 1,858
    Overall activity: 31.0%
    Achievements:
    Social50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Common Sense's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    927281
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Posts
    31,559
    Points
    66,892
    Level
    63
    Thanks Given
    11,951
    Thanked 12,202x in 8,565 Posts
    Mentioned
    423 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Physicists tend to look down on climate scientists.
    Where do you get that fiction from?

  9. #7
    Original Ranter
    Points: 439,443, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 77.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Posting Award
    Peter1469's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    408161
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    NOVA
    Posts
    135,713
    Points
    439,443
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    78,377
    Thanked 59,130x in 40,660 Posts
    Mentioned
    2111 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Common Sense View Post
    Where do you get that fiction from?
    From physicists. Did you watch the video? The guy said what climate scientists do is not science.

    I have heard that is other sources written by physicists and astrophysicists. Computer models are more of a social science thing. Not a hard science thing.
    Alea iacta est

    Check out the blog.


  10. #8
    Points: 2,174, Level: 10
    Level completed: 81%, Points required for next Level: 76
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    1 year registered1000 Experience Points
    Centinel's Avatar Junior Member
    Karma
    12
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    14
    Points
    2,174
    Level
    10
    Thanks Given
    1
    Thanked 2x in 2 Posts
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Can computer models predict the winner of the Superbowl?

  11. #9
    Points: 132,155, Level: 87
    Level completed: 86%, Points required for next Level: 495
    Overall activity: 83.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteranOverdrive
    Tahuyaman's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    249733
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Bremerton Washington or Sayulita Mexico depending on the time of year.
    Posts
    58,091
    Points
    132,155
    Level
    87
    Thanks Given
    6,778
    Thanked 18,695x in 14,240 Posts
    Mentioned
    345 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change?

    No. Why? Garbage in, garbage out.

  12. #10
    Points: 132,155, Level: 87
    Level completed: 86%, Points required for next Level: 495
    Overall activity: 83.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteranOverdrive
    Tahuyaman's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    249733
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Bremerton Washington or Sayulita Mexico depending on the time of year.
    Posts
    58,091
    Points
    132,155
    Level
    87
    Thanks Given
    6,778
    Thanked 18,695x in 14,240 Posts
    Mentioned
    345 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Physicists tend to look down on climate scientists.
    Quote Originally Posted by Common Sense View Post
    Where do you get that fiction from?
    Why would you dispute that?

+ Reply to Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts


Critical Acclaim
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO