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Thread: The downside of trade wars

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    The downside of trade wars

    Trade Partnership Worldwide put out a report in early June estimating that net job losses from Trump’s trade war would exceed 400,000 and reduce U.S. GDP by 0.2 percent annually, in the short term:

    "We find that the tariffs and quotas coupled with retaliation would have positive employment impacts on U.S. steel and aluminum producers, as well as a handful of other sectors able to attract capital and labor released from sectors that are harmed by the tariffs and retaliation. However, tariffs, quotas and retaliation would harm the U.S. economy overall, including workers in other manufacturing sectors that use steel and aluminum. Those positive and negative impacts would ripple through the economy, affecting workers in every sector. Briefly, we find:


    • The tariffs, quotas and retaliation would reduce U.S. GDP by 0.2 percent annually, in the short term. While U.S. imports would decline, so, too, would U.S. exports.


    • The tariffs, quotas and retaliation would increase the annual level of U.S. steel employment and non-ferrous metals (primarily aluminum) employment by 26,280 jobs over the first one-three years, but reduce net employment by 432,747 jobs throughout the rest of the economy, for a total net loss of 400,445 jobs;


    Sixteen jobs would be lost for every steel/aluminum job gained;


    • More than two thirds of the lost jobs would affect workers in production and low-skill jobs.• Every state will experience a net loss of jobs."http://tradepartnership.com/wp-conte...BriefJune5.pdf
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    I'm sure that the people who lose their jobs because Trump wants to make the steel and aluminum industry great again won't mind taking one for the team.
    In quoting my post, you affirm and agree that you have not been goaded, provoked, emotionally manipulated or otherwise coerced into responding.



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    I am against long term tariffs for the reasons discussed above. But I am for tariffs to counter illegal dumping (which is what China does) or as a tactic to get other nations to cut their tariffs on US goods.
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    Were you against tariffs etc when Obama imposed them and Hillary proposed them? Are you opposed to decades-long Canadian tariffs from lumber to dairy products?
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    I am against long term tariffs for the reasons discussed above. But I am for tariffs to counter illegal dumping (which is what China does) or as a tactic to get other nations to cut their tariffs on US goods.
    I agree that dumping surplus production into other nations is bad. However, all nations are not dumping steel. Much of what is being traded are steel products, not raw steel. There is a worldwide parts industry manufacturing to order for clients around the world, including America. Imposing tariffs just makes the cost of many domestically produced goods that much higher. A manufacturer in America sources parts around the world to keep the price of their own product competitive in the market.
    In quoting my post, you affirm and agree that you have not been goaded, provoked, emotionally manipulated or otherwise coerced into responding.



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    Well?

    FACT CHECK: DOES CANADA CHARGE A 270% TARIFF ON US DAIRY?

    Canada heavily regulates its dairy industry with a supply management system that impacts production and sets target prices for dairy products. As a part of that system, it uses set tariff rate quotas (TRQ) for imports. Dairy products imported before a quota on a product is met are subject low tariffs or no tariffs, while products imported after the quota are subject to tariffs ranging from 201.5 percent to 313.5 percent.
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Were you against tariffs etc when Obama imposed them and Hillary proposed them? Are you opposed to decades-long Canadian tariffs from lumber to dairy products?
    There was no trade war during the last administration. Canada doesn't tariff U.S. lumber, it's the other way around. The U.S. now imposes tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber and as a result, the cost of building a new home in America has gone up by 7%.

    The entire Canadian dairy industry is smaller than that of Wisconsin (2.2b gallons in all of Canada vs 3.5b gallons in just Wisconsin alone in 2017). US dairy production is out of control and milk is often sold for less than the cost of production which in total produces over 25b gallons of milk per year. As a result, untariffed US milk imports would wipe out the Canadian dairy industry, which is also overproducing milk. Last year alone the US dairy industry dumped 100 million gallons of surplus milk. Canadians pay on average $1.50 to $2.00 more for a gallon of milk than Americans in order to keep Canadian dairies, which have strict quotas, profitable. Unlike the U.S., Canadian dairy receives no government subsidies. The U.S. government, on the other hand, contributed around $22.2 billion in direct and indirect subsidies to the dairy sector in 2015. I know you like charts, so there are plenty of them in the link.
    In quoting my post, you affirm and agree that you have not been goaded, provoked, emotionally manipulated or otherwise coerced into responding.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Who View Post
    There was no trade war during the last administration. Canada doesn't tariff U.S. lumber, it's the other way around. The U.S. now imposes tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber and as a result, the cost of building a new home in America has gone up by 7%.

    The entire Canadian dairy industry is smaller than that of Wisconsin (2.2b gallons in all of Canada vs 3.5b gallons in just Wisconsin alone in 2017). US dairy production is out of control and milk is often sold for less than the cost of production which in total produces over 25b gallons of milk per year. As a result, untariffed US milk imports would wipe out the Canadian dairy industry, which is also overproducing milk. Last year alone the US dairy industry dumped 100 million gallons of surplus milk. Canadians pay on average $1.50 to $2.00 more for a gallon of milk than Americans in order to keep Canadian dairies, which have strict quotas, profitable. Unlike the U.S., Canadian dairy receives no government subsidies. The U.S. government, on the other hand, contributed around $22.2 billion in direct and indirect subsidies to the dairy sector in 2015. I know you like charts, so there are plenty of them in the link.
    OK, got the lumber tariff reversed but your response otherwise either dismisses Canadian tariffs or justifies them. In short, you are OK with Canadian tariffs, just against Trump tariffs...and likely just against Trump.
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    OK, got the lumber tariff reversed but your response otherwise either dismisses Canadian tariffs or justifies them. In short, you are OK with Canadian tariffs, just against Trump tariffs...and likely just against Trump.
    You are apparently good with a subsidized industry (say like one in China) driving an unsubsidized industry out of business by dumping artificially cheaper product into the market. Of course, we are not talking about steel here, but food. Driving Canadian dairy into the ground would leave Canada at the mercy of other nations for an important part of its food supply. No nation can afford to allow that to happen.
    In quoting my post, you affirm and agree that you have not been goaded, provoked, emotionally manipulated or otherwise coerced into responding.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Who View Post
    You are apparently good with a subsidized industry (say like one in China) driving an unsubsidized industry out of business by dumping artificially cheaper product into the market. Of course, we are not talking about steel here, but food. Driving Canadian dairy into the ground would leave Canada at the mercy of other nations for an important part of its food supply. No nation can afford to allow that to happen.
    Now where did you come up with the notion I'm "good with a subsidized industry"? That whole cloth you hold in your hand?

    I am against all government subsidies, tariffs, taxes, and other meddling n the market. You've read me for years and that should be more than obvious.


    I see again, while you're against Trump tariffs, you justify Canadian tariffs.
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

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