Trade Partnership Worldwide put out a report in early June estimating that net job losses from Trump’s trade war would exceed 400,000 and reduce U.S. GDP by 0.2 percent annually, in the short term:
"We find that the tariffs and quotas coupled with retaliation would have positive employment impacts on U.S. steel and aluminum producers, as well as a handful of other sectors able to attract capital and labor released from sectors that are harmed by the tariffs and retaliation. However, tariffs, quotas and retaliation would harm the U.S. economy overall, including workers in other manufacturing sectors that use steel and aluminum. Those positive and negative impacts would ripple through the economy, affecting workers in every sector. Briefly, we find:
• The tariffs, quotas and retaliation would reduce U.S. GDP by 0.2 percent annually, in the short term. While U.S. imports would decline, so, too, would U.S. exports.
• The tariffs, quotas and retaliation would increase the annual level of U.S. steel employment and non-ferrous metals (primarily aluminum) employment by 26,280 jobs over the first one-three years, but reduce net employment by 432,747 jobs throughout the rest of the economy, for a total net loss of 400,445 jobs;
• Sixteen jobs would be lost for every steel/aluminum job gained;
• More than two thirds of the lost jobs would affect workers in production and low-skill jobs.• Every state will experience a net loss of jobs."http://tradepartnership.com/wp-conte...BriefJune5.pdf