The geopolitics of London
This is a fascinating article from Geopolitical Futures about the history of London from the Celts to Brexit. And why and how London became a global center of power.
SummaryWere London a city-state, it would have the 20th-largest national economy in the world – larger than the national economies of Saudi Arabia, Argentina and South Africa. Were London a city-state, its national per capita gross domestic product would be greater than that of the United States. Were London a city-state, it would be the 15th most populous country in Europe, with an overall population bigger than that of Austria or Denmark and bigger than the combined populations of Scotland and Northern Ireland. And were London a city-state, it would have voted to remain in the European Union, and it would no doubt be criticizing neighboring England for voting to leave.
Alas, London is not a city-state, and for all its history, wealth and power, it can never aspire to be one. For just under a millennium, London has been the capital of England; for more than three centuries, it has been the capital of the United Kingdom; for more than a century, it was the capital of the largest empire ever conquered. London embodies the paradox of all great cities. Great cities are the ultimate expressions of their national cultures, often serving as the seat of power for millions, even billions, of people who do not actually live there. But just as often, the interests of the cities diverge from those of the rest of the nation.
Such is the case for London, a city that is the very definition of cosmopolitan. The power it wields and the opportunities it offers have attracted people from all over the world. The city, once a tactical nicety for warring tribes, has become a strategic necessity for the country in which it resides. The role London plays in that strategy changes according to the necessities of the times, and it’s just as likely as not that its interests actually align with the United Kingdom’s.
Even so, in a vacuum, London’s interests prior to the Brexit referendum clearly pointed toward remaining in the EU. London is no longer a manufacturing city, its sterling no longer rules the world, and it no longer enjoys the perks that came with being the capital of a large and diverse imperial system. The EU was easy money. But London is not just a money-making machine for foreign capital. London is still the capital of England and of the United Kingdom, and unlike in centuries past, London’s share of the U.K.’s total population, while large, is no longer as overwhelmingly dominant as it was when Britain still had its empire. The immediate result of the Brexit vote was a rude awakening for the 60 percent of Londoners who could not fathom that a majority of their countrymen would support the “leave” campaign. But London has faced far worse from continental Europe. Leaving it, in this context, is not so daunting.
The more daunting challenge emanating from across the channel is the reactivation of great power politics. The most disastrous periods in London’s history have come when Great Britain did not have the power to repel foreign invaders. Ironically, the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU underscores a far bigger threat to London than international banks leaving the city or tough German negotiating tactics: the attendant conflicts and rivalries that have delegitimized the European Union, like forcing austerity upon Greece or Brussels-mandated refugee quotas. The EU is a heroic delusion – heroic because it has kept the continent from ripping itself apart for generations, and delusional because it believes this battle is already won.
Against these national forces, London is relatively powerless. Its fate rests in the hands of the nation it sustains, a nation that can in turn protect London only by maintaining old allies such as the United States and developing new ones in Europe and beyond. The fate of the U.K., meanwhile, depends on London’s ability to find new ways to create and share wealth with future generations of British citizens.
For more than a thousand years, London has been the U.K., or some iteration of it. Though the two see the world differently right now, they can afford to. The future will not be as kind, and when that future comes, the interests of nation and city will be joined once more.
In the middle of these two quotes is the history of London. Amazing.
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