Stages of Human History

[IMPress Polly]

What follows is simply a broad and sweeping outline of how I see the course of human history so far and of where I believe it's going and why. I've numbered what I consider the different social stages themselves and between them have provided a description of the key developments that I believe resulted in the shifts. Feel free to provide your own such outline or dispute whatever in mine if you want. Just trying to get the basics of my thoughts down on this.

1. Primate society. (Gathering society.)

Discovery of fire, resulting in hunting (namely fishing initially). Humans can now leave the trees and travel along waterways (like the edge of the sea, for example), which lets them spread across continents.

Invention of language. This is invented to foster coalition-building by the lower classes in order to challenge the economic and political power of the ruling elite, resulting in general egalitarianism.

2. Tribal communism. (Hunting and gathering society.)

Discovery of agriculture by the more gathering-centric societies, most likely by women since women spent the most time on the domestic front. This diminishes the importance of hunting and elevates the perceived value of the woman's prescribed role in society.

3. Agrarian socialism. (The age of matriarchy.)

Invention of writing. This shifts the center of human brain activity from the brain's right half to its left half.

Invasion of the more sedentary, pacifistic (i.e. sitting duck) agrarian societies by the more hunting-dependent, male-dominated societies.

4. Patriarchal feudalism.

Invention of firearms, the printing press, and the steam engine. These developments yield (mostly democratic) political revolutions that elevate the status of the lower classes generally and, with the advent of the steam engine, the industrial revolution in economics that puts specifically the capitalist class in a dominant position.

5. Industrial capitalism.

Invention of the birth control pill. This frees women up in historically unprecedented ways to pursue careers. (Legalization of abortion goes along with this, but as a more secondary contribution.)

Invention of cyberspace.

PREDICTION:

I believe that the advent of cyberspace has revolutionary implications in the long run. I'm still speaking in terms of centuries here, not in terms of our lifetimes. But we can already see that this new improvement in communication is accelerating the democratization of the world qualitatively. I believe that, as the world continues to get more fully developed over the next century, and as Internet access expands with it, there will likely be broader social implications. If right now the world in general is moving toward leveling the political landscape, there is likely to eventually be a threshold, I suspect, where we also start to tackle economic inequality again. I don't know what the particulars will look like, but I believe that we're going to discover the need for world government in this century or the next, and that will put a democratic check on the currently pretty much unbridled power of the capitalist class to run wild and roughshod over the world. We are already starting to see some movement back in a more socialistic direction in much of Latin America and in some nations of Europe. But in general, this century may largely be a lost cause.

I also believe that, over the next century or two, we will see a general reduction in the social standing of men and the elevation of women to the overall dominant position once again, most essentially resulting from the mechanization of otherwise manual labor jobs...which will render many of the existing professions that are most dominated by men all but obsolete, if not totally obsolete in the long run. The computerization of society is also leading, I believe, to a revival of working at home, which will eventually revive some of the old, agrarian family values and largely resolve the work-home conflict that women presently experience very disproportionately. My point here is that the structure of the economy, at least in the most developed nations, appears to be changing in a way that favors the skills and professions that are dominantly had by women at this point. Feminism is but the cultural and political expression of this economic development, with its modern roots being found in the invention of the birth control pill. These three things (family planning, mechanization of manual labor, and the advent of a more work-from-home type economy) combined could ultimately result in the (peaceful) overthrow of male rule.

So...

6. Resurrection of matriarchal socialism in a new, industrial form.

[Chris]

Historicism.

I prefer Douglas Adam's the four ages of sand:


From sand we make glass, from glass we make lenses and from lenses we make telescopes.... The next age of sand is the microscopic one.... In the third age of sand we discover something else we can make out of sand—silicon....

Q – What is the fourth age of sand?

Let me back up for a minute and talk about the way we communicate. Traditionally, we have a bunch of different ways in which we communicate with each other. One way is one-to-one; we talk to each other, have a conversation. Another is one-to-many, which I’m doing at the moment, or someone could stand up and sing a song, or announce we’ve got to go to war. Then we have many-to-one communication; we have a pretty patchy, clunky, not-really-working version we call democracy, but in a more primitive state I would stand up and say, ‘OK, we’re going to go to war’ and some may shout back ‘No we’re not!’—and then we have many-to-many communication in the argument that breaks out afterwards!

....But the fourth, the many-to-many, we didn’t have at all before the coming of the Internet, which, of course, runs on fibre-optics. It’s communication between us that forms the fourth age of sand....

http://www.douglasadams.se/stuff/sand.html


A linear as opposed to circular view.


"No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man."
~Heraclitus

[Peter1469]

What follows is simply a broad and sweeping outline of how I see the course of human history so far and of where I believe it's going and why. I've numbered what I consider the different social stages themselves and between them have provided a description of the key developments that I believe resulted in the shifts. Feel free to provide your own such outline or dispute whatever in mine if you want. Just trying to get the basics of my thoughts down on this.

1. Primate society. (Gathering society.)

Discovery of fire, resulting in hunting (namely fishing initially). Humans can now leave the trees and travel along waterways (like the edge of the sea, for example), which lets them spread across continents.

Invention of language. This is invented to foster coalition-building by the lower classes in order to challenge the economic and political power of the ruling elite, resulting in general egalitarianism.

2. Tribal communism. (Hunting and gathering society.)

Discovery of agriculture by the more gathering-centric societies, most likely by women since women spent the most time on the domestic front. This diminishes the importance of hunting and elevates the perceived value of the woman's prescribed role in society.

3. Agrarian socialism. (The age of matriarchy.)

Invention of writing. This shifts the center of human brain activity from the brain's right half to its left half.

Invasion of the more sedentary, pacifistic (i.e. sitting duck) agrarian societies by the more hunting-dependent, male-dominated societies.

4. Patriarchal feudalism.

Invention of firearms, the printing press, and the steam engine. These developments yield (mostly democratic) political revolutions that elevate the status of the lower classes generally and, with the advent of the steam engine, the industrial revolution in economics that puts specifically the capitalist class in a dominant position.

5. Industrial capitalism.

Invention of the birth control pill. This frees women up in historically unprecedented ways to pursue careers. (Legalization of abortion goes along with this, but as a more secondary contribution.)

Invention of cyberspace.

PREDICTION:

I believe that the advent of cyberspace has revolutionary implications in the long run. I'm still speaking in terms of centuries here, not in terms of our lifetimes. But we can already see that this new improvement in communication is accelerating the democratization of the world qualitatively. I believe that, as the world continues to get more fully developed over the next century, and as Internet access expands with it, there will likely be broader social implications. If right now the world in general is moving toward leveling the political landscape, there is likely to eventually be a threshold, I suspect, where we also start to tackle economic inequality again. I don't know what the particulars will look like, but I believe that we're going to discover the need for world government in this century or the next, and that will put a democratic check on the currently pretty much unbridled power of the capitalist class to run wild and roughshod over the world. We are already starting to see some movement back in a more socialistic direction in much of Latin America and in some nations of Europe. But in general, this century may largely be a lost cause.

I also believe that, over the next century or two, we will see a general reduction in the social standing of men and the elevation of women to the overall dominant position once again, most essentially resulting from the mechanization of otherwise manual labor jobs...which will render many of the existing professions that are most dominated by men all but obsolete, if not totally obsolete in the long run. The computerization of society is also leading, I believe, to a revival of working at home, which will eventually revive some of the old, agrarian family values and largely resolve the work-home conflict that women presently experience very disproportionately. My point here is that the structure of the economy, at least in the most developed nations, appears to be changing in a way that favors the skills and professions that are dominantly had by women at this point. Feminism is but the cultural and political expression of this economic development, with its modern roots being found in the invention of the birth control pill. These three things (family planning, mechanization of manual labor, and the advent of a more work-from-home type economy) combined could ultimately result in the (peaceful) overthrow of male rule.

So...

6. Resurrection of matriarchal socialism in a new, industrial form.

Between 4 and 5 I would add the rise of the nation-state. Gunpowder and the creation of expensive weapons made war to expensive for the feudal system. On the micro level, gunpower was the great equalizer. On the macro level it created the nation-state. I guess that you would put that on the patriarchal side of the scale.

Where does raising the next generations fit into all of this, and is that even an important consideration?

[Chris]

Between 4 and 5 I would add the rise of the nation-state. Gunpowder and the creation of expensive weapons made war to expensive for the feudal system. On the micro level, gunpower was the great equalizer. On the macro level it created the nation-state. I guess that you would put that on the patriarchal side of the scale.

Where does raising the next generations fit into all of this, and is that even an important consideration?

Patriarchal socialism? :-) Fascism, nazism, communism....

[Peter1469]

Patriarchal socialism? :-) Fascism, nazism, communism....

Did you delete out those isms that came threw when I quoted your post?

Maybe the patriarchs and the matriarchs should get together and get along.

[Chris]

Does the polly/peter cycle comport well with Alexander Tytler's?

Alexander Tytler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinborough (1887) has been credited with the following:

A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.

Great nations rise and fall. They always progress through the following sequences:


From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to selfishness;
From selfishness to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage.

[KC]

I don't know much about this topic, I think it's hard to analyze economic models outside the context of our own market society, and I don't think we can analyze these models without looking at them from the perspective of of a market system, but I agree with Polly's OP in that liberty in markets and economic matters is the exception, not the norm. I don't think it will always be that way, but my hope is that it will last as long as possible.

[Mister D]

I for one reject theories of history.

[IMPress Polly]

Peter wrote:
Where does raising the next generations fit into all of this, and is that even an important consideration?

To be honest, I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking about trends in family structure?


Chris wrote:
A linear as opposed to circular view.

The view I'm articulating here is obviously an oversimplification. For example, I completely excluded slave empires and 20th century communism and stuff like that because they generally seem to have been aberrations (however important ones) rather than the rule at any given point in the course of developments. Also: most of these different economic systems still exist in one form or another in about every society to this day. They're not all equally legal anymore, but they still exist. It's quite complex. I was just seeking to capture the big picture in broad strokes.

[Chris]

To be honest, I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking about trends in family structure?



The view I'm articulating here is obviously an oversimplification. For example, I completely excluded slave empires and 20th century communism and stuff like that because they generally seem to have been aberrations (however important ones) rather than the rule at any given point in the course of developments. Also: most of these different economic systems still exist in one form or another in about every society to this day. They're not all equally legal anymore, but they still exist. It's quite complex. I was just seeking to capture the big picture in broad strokes.

Yea, that's fine, the two views I presented were also overgeneralizations as well. Still I think you would have to agree your's is circular inasmuch as by your narrative history repeats itself. Alexander Tytler's narrative is also circular. Douglas Adams' though is linear.

I believe Western views of history tend to be linear while eastern views tend to be circular.

[IMPress Polly]

I don't think much of anything is truly inevitable. Very likely? Yes. Inevitable? No, not very often. History can repeat itself, but not in a pure way. For example, I can't imagine us ever going back to being principally an agrarian society.

[Chris]

I can't see a free-market society adopting socialism, but it's happening.

[Deadwood]

I am impressed!

That's a very comprehensive list.

I have to point out a couple of things.


The early developments you list like did not follow chronalogiccally. For instance, there were many instances of tribal communism before fire, and much tool making before tribalism [if you identify a 'tribe' as a collection of families, as opposed to a group consisting of an extended family]

And, and I was shocked to discover this, the most significant technological development in the history of man, collected by anthropologists, sociologists and historians and revealed as a 100 item list....was ....wait for it.....hay.

The ability to bring food to where the horse was working changed everything. It led to the creation of cities and the change from man to horse power.

We will see what the internet brings.

I am amused, now that I am older and a little less passionate, and fascinated at how the politicians are trying to find ways to control it, excusing spying on where we visit as a means of protecting innocent children from being exploited to porn.

Word of advice after watching governments from up close for over 40 years: when they start talking about 'regulating' anything? Taxes are what their thinking about.

Politicians are drooling over the profits being made here and absolutely LUST after a way of slicing off a share for themselves

[Newpublius]

I can't see a free-market society adopting socialism, but it's happening.

"nothing so rare as a shrinking government" Nutter (yes, that's the guy's name)

Government expenditures have electoral consequences. Govt spending at all levels is now at 40% of GDP.

[Chris]

"nothing so rare as a shrinking government" Nutter (yes, that's the guy's name)

Government expenditures have electoral consequences. Govt spending at all levels is now at 40% of GDP.

I've seen a sort of consensus that somewhere around 19% is appropriate.

I'd prefer less, much less.

[Newpublius]

I've seen a sort of consensus that somewhere around 19% is appropriate.

I'd prefer less, much less.

Rahn curve, optimal size of government. 15-25% of GDP. So you're right in the meat of that curve.