The global warming 'pause' that wasn't

[Contrails]

For everyone who thinks that the 'pause' in global warming over the last 17 years disproves AGW theories, I would like to present exhibit A:

Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2297/abstract)


Temperature trends are compared for the hybrid global temperature reconstruction and the raw HadCRUT4 data. The widely quoted trend since 1997 in the hybrid global reconstruction is two and a half times greater than the corresponding trend in the coverage-biased HadCRUT4 data. Coverage bias causes a cool bias in recent temperatures relative to the late 1990s which increases from around 1998 to the present. Trends starting in 1997 or 1998 are particularly biased with respect to the global trend. The issue is exacerbated by the strong El Niño event of 1997-1998, which also tends to suppress trends starting during those years.

[Chris]

"The global warming 'pause' that wasn't"

Sensational alarmist title not supported. Deniers would have a field day with it.

[Contrails]

"The global warming 'pause' that wasn't"

Sensational alarmist title not supported.
When the paper shows that global warming over the last 17 years has been 0.12 °C per decade, exactly the same rate calculated since 1951, then how is the title not supported?


Deniers would have a field day with it.
Deniers will obfuscate and redirect, but they will not address it.

[Chris]

Because there was a pause. Why are you denying it? The citation you made doesn't deny it.

[Contrails]

Because there was a pause. Why are you denying it? The citation you made doesn't deny it.

What exactly do you think "two and a half times greater" means in relation to warming trends since 1997? The paper not only denies there was a pause, it flat out refutes it. When the rate of change over the last 17 years is identical to the rate over the last 60 years, how can you claim that there is a "pause"?

I used to give you the benefit of the doubt with your "science is skeptical" position, figuring you remained on the fence because you hadn't looked at all of the data. But misrepresenting a scientific paper without even bothering to back up your argument puts you squarely in the denial camp.

[Chris]

Tell us, contrails, what is "two and a half times greater" than what?

And your petty whiney ad hom, it's really unimpressive.

[Peter1469]

"The global warming 'pause' that wasn't"

Sensational alarmist title not supported. Deniers would have a field day with it.

Hey they got to keep their grant money flowing. :wink:

[Chris]

Hey they got to keep their grant money flowing. :wink:

Contrails, a climatologist, hardly. He's cheerleading as an alarmist.

[Contrails]

Tell us, contrails, what is "two and a half times greater" than what?
You can read, can't you?


And your petty whiney ad hom, it's really unimpressive.
To qualify as an ad hominem, my statement would have to reject your argument based on an irrelevant fact about you. First, you didn't present an argument to reject, and second, your denial of published climate science is hardly irrelevant to the discussion


Contrails, a climatologist, hardly. He's cheerleading as an alarmist.
There you go again, conflating acceptance of published scientific theories with being an alarmist. Thanks for proving my point.

[bobgnote]

When the average global temperature readings are weighted, to include all frozen masses and their fluctuations and whether, at melting, these masses vaporize or flow, call me.

Since instruments started up, in the 1880s, global average increase is only about a degree Centigrade, but SO WHAT? THE TEMPERATURE AVERAGES DON'T HAVE ALL MASSES MEASURED! THEY ARE ONLY AN INDICATOR! TIPPING POINT passage is way, WAY MORE IMPORTANT!! But I guess discussion readily becomes argument, in special class.

When the tardy will notice METHANE CLATHRATES are melting, to bubble up, from formerly frozen seafloor, and melting perennial ice and permafrost are issuing loads of CH4, which starts out, at about 72 times the GHG-rating, of CO2, hey now!

That methane is a killer, hence CLATHRATE GUN HYPOTHESIS:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

When the slow ones catch up, to THAT, and how CO2 is rising faster, than any time, in geologic history, and humans also invented a load of nasty GHGs, with molecular size way over three atoms, hey now!

Come on, MAAAAAHN. US high schoolers just got rated way down the list. Don't you deniers make us look worse, mmm-kay?

We are going to heat up, and the ocean will acidify, and we will suffer mass extinction event 6, and the human population of 7.1 billion will be compromised, sooner, rather than later, mmm-kay?

Deniers will make really, really sure that happens, in such a way, as to maximize casualties and minimize solution development.

See also:

http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/19008-Say-hello-to-MASS-EXTINCTION-EVENT-6-everyone!

[bobgnote]

Look! Look and see:

http://planetsave.com/2013/11/15/methane-emissions-roof-arctic-melts-faster-predicted-arctic-study-group/


Arctic methane emissions this month were recorded at historic-high levels, causing great concern among climatologists, who cite rapidly melting Arctic sea-ice and warming oceans as the main causes.
As reported in the blog Arctic News (http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/methane-levels-going-through-the-roof.html), ”huge amounts of methane are now escaping from the seabed of the Arctic Ocean, penetrating the sea ice, and entering the atmosphere, in a process that appears to be accelerating, resulting in levels as high as 2662 ppb (at 14384 feet altitude) on November 9, 2013.” Experts generally agree that this amount is roughly twice the globally ‘safe’ level.
Another study group, the Alamo Project (https://www.facebook.com/AlamoProject), said, “Greenhouse gases are escaping the permafrost and entering the atmosphere at an increasing rate – up to 50 billion tons each year of methane, for example — due to a global thawing trend. This is particularly troublesome because methane heats the atmosphere with 25 times the efficiency of carbon dioxide. The release of all this stored carbon could change climate in the Arctic in ways researchers have yet to fully understand.”

Read more at http://planetsave.com/2013/11/15/methane-emissions-roof-arctic-melts-faster-predicted-arctic-study-group/#QqurylVmfm7gUbrI.99

This CH4 stuff is a tipping point mechanism, which seems to be ignored, particularly, by unscholarly, narrow-minded, unreasonable climate change DENIERS, which are a waste of several media, by now.

[The Sage of Main Street]

Pseudo-intellectual elitist snobbery screeching out of academentia. The trustfundie Treehuggers whom the intellectual pedophiles seduce are motivated by hatred of their corporate Big Shot fathers, who neglected them while obsessively pursuing wealth 24/7.

[bobgnote]

I keep waiting, for some connected media, to announce how we need functional, constitutional rule, in the US and several states, finally.

Barely a whisper or a fart comes out, of anyone, certainly not from evident media.

If we had a benevolent upper class, one of them would be able to do more, than make movies, which cleverly show how historical bad news will repeat itself.

With efficient constitutional rule, we could use hemp, as a resource, besides as paper media, for the Declaration of Independence or meds, for stoners, while our carbon footprint would then be minimized, if only we were freed, from profiteering, on criminal misconduct, et al.

The classes sure are churning out asses. Just saying . . .

[bobgnote]

One of the chronic problems, with rants, about global average or mean temps is since the 1880s instrument record, into the satellite-enhanced detection times, we have never had a total breakdown, of all masses on Earth, solid, liquid, and gas, which may interact, with climate or changes, either short or long-term.

If we had such measure, all broken down, we could look over how clathrates are bubbling up, to immediately join the atmosphere, cooling it, temporarily, and we could see, how bodies of ice either grow, recede, or whether they change temperature, without changing state.

Of course, the witch-doctor-types, which want to pretend METHANE isn't out-gassing seem to raise every, last smoke-and-mirror media, in place of any progress, toward understanding TIPPING POINTS and what has been happening with these, faster, than at any other time, in geologic history.

And so, a lot of paper and bandwidth are devoted, to rwnj-pidgin, some in the trollish dialects.

[The Sage of Main Street]

One of the chronic problems, with rants, about global average or mean temps is since the 1880s instrument record, into the satellite-enhanced detection times, we have never had a total breakdown, of all masses on Earth, solid, liquid, and gas, which may interact, with climate or changes, either short or long-term.

If we had such measure, all broken down, we could look over how clathrates are bubbling up, to immediately join the atmosphere, cooling it, temporarily, and we could see, how bodies of ice either grow, recede, or whether they change temperature, without changing state.

Of course, the witch-doctor-types, which want to pretend METHANE isn't out-gassing seem to raise every, last smoke-and-mirror media, in place of any progress, toward understanding TIPPING POINTS and what has been happening with these, faster, than at any other time, in geologic history.

And so, a lot of paper and bandwidth are devoted, to rwnj-pidgin, some in the trollish dialects.

"Pidgin"? That's what you speak, Diploma Dumbo grammar copied from the ambitious imbeciles who succeed in broadcasting. Ignorance of standard English discredits your rant and reveals that your education is a fraud. You use which instead of who, and media instead of medium. Your sentences run on and implode, indicating the lack of structured thought caused by poor grammar. To a truly educated person, you should get no more respect that somebody who says, "You denieders ain't got nothing and is a fact."

[bobgnote]

"Pidgin"? That's what you speak, Diploma Dumbo grammar copied from the ambitious imbeciles who succeed in broadcasting. Ignorance of standard English discredits your rant and reveals that your education is a fraud. You use which instead of who, and media instead of medium. Your sentences run on and implode, indicating the lack of structured thought caused by poor grammar. To a truly educated person, you should get no more respect that somebody who says, "You denieders ain't got nothing and is a fact."

Dude. If your TV is off, turn it back on.

Your rant doesn't use punctuation, and you can't spell. Why not take your meds, and go for a nappy?

FWI, when you are an emotional hypocrite, which writes, in rwnj-pidgin, don't pretend you know how to reference, for corrections.

I used to grade papers. You were kicked out of school, for disturbing class.

As for the global warming pause, when media unfreeze, to become liquid or gas, this cools the average surface temps.

The ice is melting, so warming is on. Get used to it.