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View Full Version : Economics is Fun, Part 20: Economic Science



Chris
04-04-2012, 06:06 AM
Is economics a science?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKAgmrJaOkk&feature=relmfu

MMC
04-04-2012, 08:30 AM
Chris do you agree with him on the point for an econimist that there is no perfect information. I would disagree wouldnt you?

Stoney
04-04-2012, 09:46 AM
I guess there might be some economic information that we can rely on, such as the value of a dollar and the amount of money that is available, the price of goods and services. But none of that is static. Its all a moving target. We can rely on that information for an undetermined period of time, unless something unforeseen happens.

Most of us rely on our income and liabilities for a budget. But its all subject to change.

I can't think of any economic information that is not subject to change. I can think of several examples of economic information that we can reliably predict, with the understanding that we can and will be disappointed in those predictions at some point.

MMC
04-04-2012, 11:41 AM
I guess there might be some economic information that we can rely on, such as the value of a dollar and the amount of money that is available, the price of goods and services. But none of that is static. Its all a moving target. We can rely on that information for an undetermined period of time, unless something unforeseen happens.

Most of us rely on our income and liabilities for a budget. But its all subject to change.

I can't think of any economic information that is not subject to change. I can think of several examples of economic information that we can reliably predict, with the understanding that we can and will be disappointed in those predictions at some point.


Nice Post Stoney.....I was like looking at the Aspect that say we know a Country was going to war. That such info is perfect in that there is no dispute as to not going to war. Know What I Mean.

Conley
04-04-2012, 11:56 AM
I disagree with the good doctor. Certainly economics is unpredictable due to human involvement, but the studies of such don't mean it can't be a science. Psychology and other fields of study handle this as well. A lack of absolute laws isn't a requirement for a science. Furthermore, I think his earlier videos show the value of limited scope and how when variables are controlled, absolutes can be established. That's not the case in the real world but for teaching purposes it has served us well.

Conley
04-04-2012, 11:58 AM
As an example, you can look at past behavior by the Fed to predict how they will respond to a new challenge. The prediction won't be made with 100% certainty but the past can be used a predictor of the future with greater than random chance.

Chris
04-04-2012, 12:12 PM
Only a brief reply. No, there is no perfect information, knowledge is too distributed and dynamic, to make predictions.

MMC
04-04-2012, 12:23 PM
Chris what about with the static on War. Like I stated. In the aspect that the info is Perfect as there will not be a War? I am trying to think of how such would not be perfect info. Might not be specific with all else that comes with War. But in the General Sense the info is Perfect as War will not be avoided. Know what I mean?

Conley
04-04-2012, 12:26 PM
Only a brief reply. No, there is no perfect information, knowledge is too distributed and dynamic, to make predictions.

There is no value in any economic prediction?

Chris
04-04-2012, 05:13 PM
OK, sorry, was on cell and the battery was down, and no charger--sort of like the economy. :-)


Conley, I wouldn't say no value, just too complex and dynamic to make accurate predictions. Marx, with his historicism, made fantastic predictions, that never came true, and never could. Think about it, the economy is what emerges from the myriad exchanges of individuals. How make predictions of that, man is not exactly rational in his choices.

I think you can look at history for patterns and make general predictions, but the problem is each historical event is unique, and you can't experiment, not large scale. I mean, for instance, you can't set up half the nation with a stimulus say, and half not, and see how each fares.

Actually, as a follower of Austrian economics, I think it more reasonable to predict what works and what doesn't apodictically.

Chris
04-04-2012, 05:18 PM
Chris what about with the static on War. Like I stated. In the aspect that the info is Perfect as there will not be a War? I am trying to think of how such would not be perfect info. Might not be specific with all else that comes with War. But in the General Sense the info is Perfect as War will not be avoided. Know what I mean?

Right, you might know this or that, but generally the knowledge is more complex and dynamic. Many people have predicted WWIII while many others predicted the end of history (Fukuyama, meaning end of conflict).

In a sense you make be speaking apodictically, that is, from necessary truths and I miss your meaning.

Peter1469
04-04-2012, 05:57 PM
I disagree with the good doctor. Certainly economics is unpredictable due to human involvement, but the studies of such don't mean it can't be a science. Psychology and other fields of study handle this as well. A lack of absolute laws isn't a requirement for a science. Furthermore, I think his earlier videos show the value of limited scope and how when variables are controlled, absolutes can be established. That's not the case in the real world but for teaching purposes it has served us well.

Psychology is not a real science and economics is not as well.

Chris
04-04-2012, 06:06 PM
Right, economics is a branch of sociology. It's not like biology, or especially physics.