6 Tests for Evaluating Conspiracy Theories

[Chris]

We've all I'm sure heard of Carl Sagan's The Baloney Detection Kit (http://www.brainpickings.org/2014/01/03/baloney-detection-kit-carl-sagan/).

Here's another, briefer one: 6 Tests for Evaluating Conspiracy Theories (http://www.realclearscience.com/lists/6_tests_for_conspiracy_theories/6_tests_for_conspiracy_theories.html):


...

1. Occam's Razor

When it comes to assumptions, that which is simple is more likely to be true, while that which is complicated is less likely to be true....

2. Falsifiability

Falsifiability is a hallmark of science. There must always be something, some observation or evidence, that could show that a certain hypothesis is incorrect....

3. The Worst Intentions Test

If all of the myriad conspiracy theories out there were true, there must a lot of devilish, conniving perpetrators as well. But the fact is that most people, and often those accused of conspiracies, are generally good, benign, or boring....

4. The Cui Bono Test

...Cui bono basically translates to "who benefits?" In other words, would a supposed conspiracy really help the masterminds accused of carrying it out, especially given the risks?...

5. Eternal Recurrence of the Same

..."Life normally features more continuity than change, and that is a screening mechanism for conspiracy theories," Uscinski and Parent say.

[Alyosha]

I have difficulty always with Occam's Razor because humans are never simple. Ever.

[Peter1469]

I have difficulty always with Occam's Razor because humans are never simple. Ever.

I saw something a while back that refuted Occam's Razor.

[Alyosha]

I saw something a while back that refuted Occam's Razor.

Several scientists have said it does not work on "people systems".

[Chris]

I have difficulty always with Occam's Razor because humans are never simple. Ever.

More properly stated, it's not the simple explanation but the simpler of the two.

Take crop circles. Explanation 1 is a person flattened the grass. Explanation 2 is some mysterious craft from another galaxy came and landed and left. 1 is simpler and the more likely explanation.

[Chris]

These aren't hard fast rules, folks, but rules of thumb.

[Alyosha]

More properly stated, it's not the simple explanation but the simpler of the two.

Take crop circles. Explanation 1 is a person flattened the grass. Explanation 2 is some mysterious craft from another galaxy came and landed and left. 1 is simpler and the more likely explanation.

I know what Occam's Razor is and there are also usually more than "2" answers. The world is not binary, so to fit it into simpler versus complex doesn't work.


Let's start with a conspiracy that turned out to be true. A man throws himself off of a roof. The police decide it was suicide because of family problems. The family said he had dealings with the Central Intelligence Agency and believed they were involved.

Most people who kill themselves are triggered by family or finances, not a clandesting research project by the Central Intelligence Agency, but darned if they didn't actually have someone meet up with him, drug his drink, and make suggestions to him which caused him to jump off a roof. They admitted it 30 years later when the documentation leaked and paid out money to the family.

In that case Occam's Razor would have said he jumped off the roof because he and his wife fought.

[Chris]

I know what Occam's Razor is and there are also usually more than "2" answers. The world is not binary, so to fit it into simpler versus complex doesn't work.


Let's start with a conspiracy that turned out to be true. A man throws himself off of a roof. The police decide it was suicide because of family problems. The family said he had dealings with the Central Intelligence Agency and believed they were involved.

Most people who kill themselves are triggered by family or finances, not a clandesting research project by the Central Intelligence Agency, but darned if they didn't actually have someone meet up with him, drug his drink, and make suggestions to him which caused him to jump off a roof. They admitted it 30 years later when the documentation leaked and paid out money to the family.

In that case Occam's Razor would have said he jumped off the roof because he and his wife fought.



If there's more than two then the simplest.

Occam's Razor doesn't say which answer is correct and which is wrong, only which is more likely.

In the case you present test 2, falsifiability, kicks in when you have evidence. Occam's Razor applies when you have none. And, again, it doesn't guarantee certainty.

[Bob]

I saw something a while back that refuted Occam's Razor.

Interesting. I have yet to read a refutation that worked.

But I can see cases where the complex was reasonable as a conspiracy.

For years, some claim the Rosenbergs were unfairly executed for working for the Communists and getting A bomb secrets to the Soviets.

Occam's razor probably ruled them out since the conspiracy to get top secrets from a super secret operation should have been impossible. Truman as VP had no idea of the A Bomb. Rosenbergs managed using a complex system to obtain secrets and get them to the Soviets.

[Alyosha]

If there's more than two then the simplest.

Occam's Razor doesn't say which answer is correct and which is wrong, only which is more likely.

In the case you present test 2, falsifiability, kicks in when you have evidence. Occam's Razor applies when you have none. And, again, it doesn't guarantee certainty.

Right but there was no evidence for 30 years so people believed his family was lying and his reputation was somewhat soiled. My point is that the simplest answer at the time was that he was suicidal and had family problems.

In a "conspiracy" the evidence will always be sparse because people are purposefully trying to keep a secret. You'll only have glimpses and snippets of truth.

[Chris]

Right but there was no evidence for 30 years so people believed his family was lying and his reputation was somewhat soiled. My point is that the simplest answer at the time was that he was suicidal and had family problems.

In a "conspiracy" the evidence will always be sparse because people are purposefully trying to keep a secret. You'll only have glimpses and snippets of truth.


OK, understood, but these tests are aimed at being somewhat scientific, skeptical, and they're just rules of thumb, guides.

[Alyosha]

OK, understood, but these tests are aimed at being somewhat scientific, skeptical, and they're just rules of thumb, guides.

I'm just talking about that specific one because I've always thought people made too much of it. The simplest solution isn't always the correct one.

[Chris]

Just more likely the correct one, ceterus paribus.

[Common Sense]

Occam's razor doesn't really say the simplest answer is usually the correct one, more accurately it claims that the explanation that relies on the least amount of assumptions is probably the correct one. Or more likely to be accurate.

[Chris]

Occam's razor doesn't really say the simplest answer is usually the correct one, more accurately it claims that the explanation that relies on the least amount of assumptions is probably the correct one. Or more likely to be accurate.

Relying on the least amount of assumptions would make it the simplest. Take alyosh's case, suicide as explanation assumes far less than CIA. That's why it's simpler.

[Common Sense]

Relying on the least amount of assumptions would make it the simplest. Take alyosh's case, suicide as explanation assumes far less than CIA. That's why it's simpler.

It really just depends on what information you have to reach a conclusion.

The simple answer can be the one with the least assumptions, but not necessarily.

[lynn]

Deaths that were determined to be suicide is easy for people trying to cover up a murder.

[Chris]

It really just depends on what information you have to reach a conclusion.

The simple answer can be the one with the least assumptions, but not necessarily.

But with Occam's Razor that's the case, that's what's meant.

[Codename Section]

Occam's razor doesn't really say the simplest answer is usually the correct one, more accurately it claims that the explanation that relies on the least amount of assumptions is probably the correct one. Or more likely to be accurate.

That sounds like semantics.

I still don't really buy it because women do shit, too. Women are just not simple creatures.

[Mini Me]

I know what Occam's Razor is and there are also usually more than "2" answers. The world is not binary, so to fit it into simpler versus complex doesn't work.


Let's start with a conspiracy that turned out to be true. A man throws himself off of a roof. The police decide it was suicide because of family problems. The family said he had dealings with the Central Intelligence Agency and believed they were involved.

Most people who kill themselves are triggered by family or finances, not a clandesting research project by the Central Intelligence Agency, but darned if they didn't actually have someone meet up with him, drug his drink, and make suggestions to him which caused him to jump off a roof. They admitted it 30 years later when the documentation leaked and paid out money to the family.

In that case Occam's Razor would have said he jumped off the roof because he and his wife fought.

That was Frank Olsen. he flunked the electric kool aid acid test!
What a tradjedy MK-ULTRA was!

[Paperback Writer]

I used to think that the Alex Jones listeners and tin foil types were mad as a hatter, then I became aware of things that I was not meant to know and I like the world a whole less now.

These days I try to accept what I've learnt and move into some quiet but happy resignation for assuredly the world will not change.

[Common Sense]

I used to think that the Alex Jones listeners and tin foil types were mad as a hatter, then I became aware of things that I was not meant to know and I like the world a whole less now.

These days I try to accept what I've learnt and move into some quiet but happy resignation for assuredly the world will not change.

Ooooh, what did you find out? Do tell.

[Chris]

The world changes, people don't.

[Paperback Writer]

Ooooh, what did you find out? Do tell.

That you aren't a total stupid blighter. Shook me to my core to know you're only a halfwit.

[Paperback Writer]

The world changes, people don't.

Neither do, but keep to the fairy tale. It helps, truly.

[Common Sense]

That you aren't a total stupid blighter. Shook me to my core to know you're only a halfwit.

..and they say the English are polite.

So you don't want to tell me?

[Paperback Writer]

..and they say the English are polite.

They do? I've always thought "they" realised we love to insult. They have certainly become quite stupid these days.

[Chris]

Neither do, but keep to the fairy tale. It helps, truly.

Evolution. Physically--the world--man changes, of course, there can be no denial; but morally, not at all.

[Mini Me]

There are many conspiracies that are real, and supported by a large body of evidence.

Alex Jones has made a career out of pandering to the paranoid, but there are some things he is absolutely right about, like the NWO and the corrupt international banking cabal.

A good homicide detective would never subscribe to Occam's Razor. Never!

[Animal Mother]

The idea for a New World Order is there and real and they keep telling us they're doing it and we go "Oh, what a dumb conspiracy theory!"

They actually say it. In huge press conferences. We ignore. It's our fault now.

[PolWatch]

The idea for a New World Order is there and real and they keep telling us they're doing it and we go "Oh, what a dumb conspiracy theory!"

They actually say it. In huge press conferences. We ignore. It's our fault now.

gimme a hint: when I Google new world order I find stuff by everyone from George HW Bush to Pat Robertson...which/what are you referring to?

[Chris]

My understanding of New World Order is any attempt to establish a global government.

[Mini Me]

My understanding of New World Order is any attempt to establish a global government.

There is that UN attempt for global government which will fail(Agenda 21), but we do have the Shadow Government running things in 'merica. That's CIA, DIA, NSA, DHS,PNAC Neocon war machine, DOD, etc. that took over after the assasination of JFK, and Allen Dulles running the CIA after WW II. The military industrial complex that Ike warned us about is a big part of it, as well as Texas Oil interests, and extreme RW business tycoons.

This started after we let all the Nazis into the US, Canada, and S. America with Operation Paperclip after WW II. Many were war criminals, and not just scientists, and began holding seats of power.

Then, there is the Bilderberger Group of powerful people who meet onec per year to discuss how to divvy up the spoils of Wall street and Federal Reserve racketeering.

Related to all this is the movement to destroy(or save) the US Petrodollar and replace it with SDR's(special drawing rights) that the IMF issues as money, and the plans of the BRIC nations to invent a new currency and eliminate the dollar as the world reserve currency. The Fed is the straw that stirs the drinks on the fiat paper dollar, that most of the world hates..

[Chris]

I've heard of that conspiracy.

[southwest88]

...

Related to all this is the movement to destroy(or save) the US Petrodollar and replace it with SDR's(special drawing rights) that the IMF issues as money, and the plans of the BRIC nations to invent a new currency and eliminate the dollar as the world reserve currency. The Fed is the straw that stirs the drinks on the fiat paper dollar, that most of the world hates..

(My underscore)

Russia, India & China seem to be running v. extractive economies - oil; high tech & English-speaking base; large-scale centralized economy - nearly a command economy, respectively. The only one that looks like a real contender for Western-style economy/politics is Brazil - & the jury's still out on them. But they do seem to be coming along nicely.

The others - China will keep coasting for a few more decades, but I think all three are out of the running. Too bad, Russia might have amounted to something, & parts of India's economy are excellent.

[Mini Me]

China could be in big trouble because of malinvestments like enormous ghost cities that were built with loans that will never be paid off. That has striking similarities with our housing market bubble that collapsed in 2008, and the asset bubble we are in now. They are accumulating gold like crazy getting ready for the day that the new world currency takes over. Gold is so overleveraged now, that for every dollar of actual gold there is one hundred paper gold certificates out there(which supposedly can be redeemed for real gold-haha). Central banks are hoarding gold and doing all these phony paper swaps driving down the price of gold. It should be more like $ 9000/oz. now.

Excellent book on money out right now: "The Death of Money" by James Rickards that everyone should read. The collapse of the international monetary system is coming soon(maybe 2015) and you wont want to be caught with your knickers down!

[Animal Mother]

I don't even think the NWO is a conspiracy theory because these mutherfuckers say it in the open and taunt us with it. We're the fucking majority by BILLIONS and we're all too fucking scared and comfortable to do shit about it.

I almost think they deserve what they take from us if this is our attitude.