Well Obama stepped in it again ... War for Ukraine

[Bob]

Have no doubt, when he joined Ukraine in war, he stepped into a mess of his own making.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/airborne-american-troops-ukraine/2015/01/31/id/621896/

American soldiers from the 173rd Airborne Brigade at Camp Ederle in Vicenza (http://www.usag.vicenza.army.mil/sites/local/about_vicenza_military_community.asp), Italy, are expected to be leaving the base once again soon to head to Ukraine to help train soldiers for their fight against Russia, an Italian newspaper reports.

The operation will be part of a project outlined by Lt. Gen. Gen. Ben Hodges, the head of U.S. Army Europe, earlier this month, reports the newspaper, Il Giornale (http://www.ilgiornale.it/news/mondo/paracadusti-americani-partono-lucraina-1087335.html), will involve the same division that traveled to Ukraine last September for another NATO exercise, Rapid Trident, (http://www.stripes.com/news/173rd-airborne-wraps-up-rapid-trident-exercise-in-ukraine-1.305066)according to a translation of the Italian newspaper report.

The same newspaper earlier this week suggesting that American soldiers may already be on the ground in Ukraine and helping the government of Kiev.

Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/airborne-american-troops-ukraine/2015/01/31/id/621896/#ixzz3QTHYpAyE
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[Peter1469]

We have had troops training the Ukrainians for a while. Why the war comment?

[Bob]

We have had troops training the Ukrainians for a while. Why the war comment?

Believe it or not, that puts our troops into the war.

[Bob]

Believe it or not, that puts our troops into the war.

And Obama has the balls to jerk us off over the Russians?

[Peter1469]

Believe it or not, that puts our troops into the war.

Not really. Russia is not fighting a war over Ukraine.

For God's sake- Russia is still selling natural gas to Ukraine- it is a heck of a war!

[Peter1469]

The only way there will be true war in the Ukraine is if the West insists on expanding NATO into Russia's near abroad. As I posted on Polly's blog almost a year ago:

This is a follow-up to my previous comments and readers may wish to re-read that post before moving on with this one.

Polly, I point you to your comment:

Quote- Polly: “The memory of the catastrophic WW2 Nazi invasion is no joke or trivial thing in Moscow.”

That describes the core of my position. The Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and today’s Russia based their grand strategy (defensive) on the fact that there are no natural land barriers to invasion. Focusing on the western borders, the Great European Plain has been an historical invasion route from Western Europe into Asia (a well as the reverse). Since there are no natural barriers to invasion, Russia must have depth. In the past Russia achieved this by annexing territory, or otherwise controlling it.

During the Cold War NATO was 1600 kilometers from St. Petersburg. With the end of the Cold War and the accession of the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) to NATO that distance dropped to 160 kilometers. Depth…. That leaves Belarus and Ukraine as buffers (and Belarus is solid pro-Russia). Ukraine is 480 kilometers from Moscow at its closest point. Depth…. Return to Polly’s quote above and you will see what drives Russia today. It isn’t the paranoia that western media blames Putin’s behavior on: it is history and geography. [Hat-tip to STRATFOR for the distances.]

Today, Russia can easier achieve this depth through soft power- i.e. diplomatic pressure, economic treaties, etc. This is why I don’t think that Russia will invade Ukraine (beyond Crimea, I will address that later). If Russia does invade Ukraine it is not to annex it, but rather to use it as a diplomatic pawn to give away for other concessions (and perhaps to end the conflict with public approval on its side).

So Russia’s goal is for Ukraine to remain an independent state, although with deep internal divisions that render it neutral in the West – East debate (Polly’s new Cold War). Even better, Ukraine would elect another pro-Russian government. But what Russia will not allow is a strong pro-Western government, and most certainly not a government which seeks NATO membership. That, to Russia, is an existential threat and a casus belli for war.

About Crimea: Russia still feels disrespected by the West. Russia didn’t need Crimea to secure its Black Sea Fleet; Russia has a long-term lease securing that base. The Crimean people and government are very pro-Russian, so Russia didn’t need to annex it. Russia did it for Russian pride. It was a calculated risk that the west wouldn’t go to war over Crimea (historically Crimea is Russian anyway). I don’t think that Russia will take that same risk with Ukraine; although the west is unlikely to respond militarily, Russia doesn’t want to have to rule over the pro-western portions of Ukraine. And as I argue above, they don’t need to.
So, no, I don’t think that the Cold War has started again. I think that Russia is looking for her depth.

[Peter1469]

Of course I could always be proven wrong- Putin is under extreme pressure from outside and from inside Russia. So he may do something not rational in an attempt to appear strong.

[Ethereal]

Although the probability for conventional war with Russia remains relatively low, it is higher than it was one year ago, or five years ago. And I would argue that even if the governments of the US and Russia are not in a conventional war, they are definitely embroiled in a next generation war where they use economics, proxies, and asymmetric strategies and tactics to bring down their adversaries.

[Peter1469]

Although the probability for conventional war with Russia remains relatively low, it is higher than it was one year ago, or five years ago. And I would argue that even if the governments of the US and Russia are not in a conventional war, they are definitely embroiled in a next generation war where they use economics, proxies, and asymmetric strategies and tactics to bring down their adversaries.

Absolutely.

[CreepyOldDude]

Of course I could always be proven wrong- Putin is under extreme pressure from outside and from inside Russia. So he may do something not rational in an attempt to appear strong.
Peter1469, I had someone mention to me earlier today that, looking at the direction Russian politics have been going since Putin came to power, they thought he might be in the process of becoming Tsar.

Any thoughts?

[TrixWitch]

The Russian people have always been culturally inclined towards messianic figures and strong men, not necessarily Tsars. Those Tsars such as Peter or Catherine who were cults of personality were and are revered as is Lenin. Heck, Stalin is even making a resurgence. Putin is well loved in Russia despite western news reports. Our problem with him is that every effort we make to undermine him results in a bunker mindset from Russians.

They have believed they are under social attack from the west since WWII and they are not entirely wrong. It is a strategic goal for global stability to pull all great powers under the same mantle. Without being able to cooperate economically and militarily we exacerbate situations all over the globe as those in developing nations look from one to the other for support.

It's certainly a conundrum of how to best handle that situation since overt moves only solidify what he's been saying and feeding the NWO fears that a good 90% of the Russian population currently has. Of course, they are also not wrong on that account, only that they fear it. We do want a new world order. That means stability and economic parity.

[Peter1469]

CreepyOldDude, the Witch beat me to it.


@Peter1469 (http://thepoliticalforums.com/member.php?u=10), I had someone mention to me earlier today that, looking at the direction Russian politics have been going since Putin came to power, they thought he might be in the process of becoming Tsar.

Any thoughts?

[Howey]

We have had troops training the Ukrainians for a while. Why the war comment?

Because he's a neocon with a boner, der.

[CreepyOldDude]

The Russian people have always been culturally inclined towards messianic figures and strong men, not necessarily Tsars. Those Tsars such as Peter or Catherine who were cults of personality were and are revered as is Lenin. Heck, Stalin is even making a resurgence. Putin is well loved in Russia despite western news reports. Our problem with him is that every effort we make to undermine him results in a bunker mindset from Russians.

They have believed they are under social attack from the west since WWII and they are not entirely wrong. It is a strategic goal for global stability to pull all great powers under the same mantle. Without being able to cooperate economically and militarily we exacerbate situations all over the globe as those in developing nations look from one to the other for support.

It's certainly a conundrum of how to best handle that situation since overt moves only solidify what he's been saying and feeding the NWO fears that a good 90% of the Russian population currently has. Of course, they are also not wrong on that account, only that they fear it. We do want a new world order. That means stability and economic parity.

I get how the West has had little effect, other than to bolster his popularity. But I believe my friend was thinking more of how Putin has cracked down on free speech, and generally removed or neutralized his rivals.

Those seem to me to obviously be steps to bolster his own power. My friend argues that these steps will lead eventually to Putin becoming ruler for life. My thinking is that it doesn't matter whether he ends up calling himself President for Life, or Chairman, or First Comrade, or Tsar.

Although, I suppose, if he calls himself Tsar, he might have some slight hope of founding a lasting dynasty.

[SoonToBe2LT]

Not really. Russia is not fighting a war over Ukraine.

For God's sake- Russia is still selling natural gas to Ukraine- it is a heck of a war!
This is a very naive way of thinking. I hope you're right, of course. However, how do you think COL. Putin feels when Obama arms his enemy?

I hope I receive a non-partisan response.

[Peter1469]

This is a very naive way of thinking. I hope you're right, of course. However, how do you think COL. Putin feels when Obama arms his enemy?

I hope I receive a non-partisan response.

The Russians released a statement today stating that they would not act militarily in response to our weapons sales. The weapon sales don't make much sense considering the Ukrainian army does not know how to use them. And even if they did the Russians can beat them any time they want.

[Cigar]

The Russians released a statement today stating that they would not act militarily in response to our weapons sales. The weapon sales don't make much sense considering the Ukrainian army does not know how to use them. And even if they did the Russians can beat them any time they want.

It's Pointless ... we can't be The Military Police Everywhere