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Thread: No Correlation Between Climate Change And Wildfires In California – Or Anywhere Else

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sunsettommy View Post
    Translation: I have no argument against the posted articles content, which is why I whine and complain about the headline instead.


    The papers in the article strongly supported the headline, why continue to resist the evidence?


    This chart didn't seem to penetrate your warmist/alarmist ideology at all, it is why they post tortured rationalizations that are so absurd and destroy people's credibility who have science degree.





    Notice you completely ignored Dr. Mass article, that convincingly refutes climate change as the culprit, it was caused by a rare weather event.


    It was already hot and dry enough for fires to exist, as it has been for centuries, even during the LIA, there plenty of hot fires occurring.

    =====


    From YOUR carbon brief article:


    A human-driven decline in global burned area


    Abstract

    Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.



    red bolding mine


    By the way you still haven't addressed the contents of post one article, which means the article stand unchallenged.

    I feel sorry for you.
    No correlation means zero correlation. The title of the article and the OP state that there is zero correlation between wildfires and climate change anywhere in the world. I doubt if there is zero

    correlation between climate change and the recent wildfires in California.

    Your chart of the past 1400 years to the present is interesting and it should be expected that wildfires were more common in the past. There were no fire trucks, or planes to put out fires during nearly all of that history; wildfires weren't suppressed. Since the global climate has become about 0.9 degrees C. warmer during the past 50 years as the result of increased atmospheric greenhouse gases, this is the period of time that should be of interest when examining the role of climate change and wildfires. Especially the past 20 years. Do you agree that the mean global temperature has increased by 0.9 degrees C. in the past 50 years?

    I do think that many Democratic politicians greatly overstate the role for climate change and wildfires.

    It isn't hard to find evidence that points to climate change as a factor in increased wildfires over the past 20 years. This is from the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, "Wildfires and Climate Change".



    Climate change has been a key factor in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the Western United States. Wildfire risk depends on a number of factors, including temperature, soil moisture, and the presence of trees, shrubs, and other potential fuel. All these factors have strong direct or indirect ties to climate variability and climate change. Climate change causes forest fuels (the organic matter that burns and spreads wildfire) to be more dry, and has doubled the number of large fires between 1984 and 2015 in the western United States.
    Research shows that changes in climate that create warmer, drier conditions, increased drought, and a longer fire season are boosting these increases in wildfire risk. For much of the U.S. West, projections show that an average annual 1 degree C temperature increase would increase the median burned area per year as much as 600 percent in some types of forests. In the Southeastern United States modeling suggests increased fire risk and a longer fire season, with at least a 30 percent increase from 2011 in the area burned by lightning-ignited wildfire by 2060.
    Once a fire starts—more than 80 percent of U.S. wildfires are caused by people—warmer temperatures and drier conditions can help fires spread and make them harder to put out. Warmer, drier conditions also contribute to the spread of the mountain pine beetle and other insects that can weaken or kill trees, building up the fuels in a forest.
    Land use and forest management do affect wildfire risk. Changes in climate add to these factors and are expected to continue to increase the area affected by wildfires in the United States.
    Last edited by skepticalmike; 09-23-2020 at 10:09 PM.

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    I remember hearing about the mountain pine beetle destroying forests as the result of climate change 15 years ago.

    The mountain pine beetle is a major source of pine forest destruction in the western U.S. and Canada and the level of destruction has been increasing in recent decades as a result of climate

    change They reproduce faster in warmer weather and they are less likely to be killed off by the winter cold. Southern pine beetles are also spreading northward in the eastern U.S. as a result

    of climate change.



    https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2...he-connection/



    Climate scientists have correlated the growing incidence and intensity of wildfires with rising global temperatures. Few places seem immune: Australia; Indonesia; Canada; Alaska; the American northwest, southwest and southeast; Chile; and Western Europe have all seen massive and destructive wildfires in recent years. In federally managed forests in the western U.S. today, wildfires larger than 1,000 acres have become nearly five times more frequent and burned areas 10 times as large as in the 1970s, according to research by LeRoy Westerling at the University of California at Merced. This time period corresponds to significant warming documented around the globe: Two-thirds of the 1.4-degree rise in average global temperatures since 1880 has occurred since 1975, according to NASA’s Earth Observatory.
    How climate change affects wildfires

    Climate change contributes to more and bigger wildfires in a variety of ways.
    The rise in average global temperatures has led to higher spring and summer temperatures, and importantly an earlier onset of spring. This pattern has led to a rapid melting of spring snowpack, causing soils to dry out earlier and remain dry longer.
    After months of drying in the longer periods of higher temperatures, stressed forests have become more susceptible to infestations by bark beetles and other insects that thrive in warmer temperatures. Throughout the western United States and Canada, bark beetles have killed off hundreds of millions of trees and devastated forestlands, turning them into kindling for catastrophic wildfires. Insect outbreaks killed more than 300 million trees in Texas in 2011, and more than 129 million trees in California from 2010 to 2017, according to the Fourth National Climate Assessment, released in 2018.
    Warming temperatures have allowed populations of mountain pine beetles to explode at elevations and latitudes where winters were historically cold enough to limit their numbers. These insects have killed trees across more than 25 million acres in the western U.S. since 2010. In California, the level of tree mortality has been so high in some areas that 70 percent of trees died in a single year.

  3. #13
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    Mike, it is clear you can't address the post one article or Dr. Mass article showing clear evidence that of DECLINING fires in the West, and isolated Weather events causes the fires, climate change mantra doesn't make any case at all, this despite a long running increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

    Here is what DR. Mass states:

    "Is there a trend of more easterly winds over Northwest Washington in the operational record?
    If one is interested in climate change, one MUST look at trends over time. Below is a plot of the top 10 cases of easterly wind at the grid point noted above–there is no evidence of an upward trend over time. So with increasing temperatures as the planet has warmed, there is no apparent increase of easterly wind occurrence over the region. This is a serious strike against the global warming/wildfire contention."

    and,

    "This makes a lot of physical sense and is consistent with results found by others in California. As the planet warms, the interior of the continent warms more rapidly that the ocean. Warms results in less dense air and pressure falls. Thus, pressure falls more rapidly in the interior than on the coast, which increases westerly flow and decreases easterly flow. Warming would also lessen the amplitude of the cold highs, like the one that occurred two weeks ago.
    So we have observational data that shows that summer easterly flow over the Cascades did not increase during the last 70 years as the planet started to warm. Furthermore, the gold standard in climate simulations shows late summer easterly flow declining under global warming. So the absolutely key driver of major west side of Cascades wildfires–strong easterly winds– does not appear to be strengthened by global warming. In fact, the OPPOSITE appears to be the case. It appears to weaken.

    These findings profoundly undermines the hypothesis that the Oregon fires are “climate fires” forced by increasing greenhouse gases. As a popular TV series might say, this hypothesis is “busted.”"

    and he finish with this:

    "But let me take this one step further to completely address the “climate fire” claims. To put the proverbial “final nail” into the “climate fire” coffin.How Unusual Were the Climate Conditions in the Months Before the Fire?


    Were the weather conditions in the months leading the September fires highly unusual? And has there been a significant observed trend towards considerably worse (dry/hot) conditions as would be expected if climate change was contributing to the Oregon fires?

    To answer these question, let’s examine the precipitation over crest and western slopes of the northern Oregon Cascades—the region where many of the big fires originated and grew. Below is a plot of the June to August precipitation over the region from the NOAA/NWS climate divisions data (Division 4 of Oregon) for 1900 to 2020. The summer 2020 values is not exceptional at all (indicated by small arrow and the horizontal dashed line). And there is little overall trend in the precipitation for that region.


    Clearly, precipitation in this region does not appear to be changing much with global warming. Climate models suggests a small decline in summer precipitation (and an increase in overall precipitation) by the end of the century if we continue burning fossil fuels with abandon.


    Temperature? As shown below, the summer 2020 temperature for the western slopes of the Oregon Cascades was neither a record nor even exceptional. One notes a modest upward trend during the past 30 years of approximately 1F. That could be the global warming signal. In any case, such a small warming hardly explains the catastrophic wildfires of this summer.


    Finally, let me show you the Palmer Drought Severity Index (produced by NOAA) for September 12th. The Palmer Index combines temperature and precipitation to evaluate whether drying/drought conditions are present. This index indicates normal conditions over the western slopes of the north Cascades.




    ======

    It is more and more clear you display the hallmarks of a climate ideologist, one who can't even discuss what I posted in front of you. You ignored Dr. Mass completely who utterly destroys the stupid climate change caused this years western fires mantra.

    Not once have I disputed that it has been warming over all since the mid 1800's, not once have I disputed that a lot of acres have been burned this year in California.


    But I try to run with the evidence, and with published science research that employs the falsification process. you seem more attuned to ideology, since you do what a lot of warmist/alarmists do is skirt the falsifiable evidence, by employing the modeling mantra, and post red herrings a lot, as a diversionary tactic.


    Your link in post 11, has the typical load of short data bases, short time frames, and numerous into the future modeling babble in it. The link is tedious reading since it has the usual PHD gobblegeddlygook language in it, much like trying to read the Doctors signature.....


    ======


    Here is the second paper you never read from post one article:

    ANTECEDENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.

    A major question regarding central California coastal wildfires, such as the October 2017 event, is the role of antecedent weather conditions. There is a considerable literature suggesting that wildfire frequency and area burned in the predominantly grassland/shrub environment of the hills north of San Francisco are relatively insensitive to the temperature and precipitation of the preceding summer, since a normal summer is sufficient for drying most fuels (e.g., Keeley and Fotheringham 2003; Abatzoglou and Kolden 2013; Keeley and Syphard 2016). In fact, most central California coastal locations have little precipitation from June through September during normal years (generally less than 0.5 in. month–1). Furthermore, many of the largest fires are associated with periods of dry, offshore flow that can rapidly desiccate even initially moist fine fuels (e.g., Keeley et al. 2004). Enhanced precipitation during the prior winter, as occurred for the October 2017 wildfires, appears to increase the danger of wildfires during the next warm season, since it encourages the growth of herbaceous fuels (e.g., grass), which dry during the subsequent summer and provide substantial fuel availability for late summer/autumn fires (Westerling et al. 2003, 2004; Littell et al. 2009; Dudney et al. 2017). The association of many central California wildfires with strong offshore flow results in the nearly simultaneous initiation of multiple fires, a dangerous situation that can overwhelm the resources of responders, as it did during the October 2017 Wine Country fires.



    The strong winds of 8–9 October 2017 struck coastal central California during the period when surface conditions are typically dry, following the climatologically warm and dry period from May through September. Figure 6 presents the historical weather conditions for the U.S. Climate Division encompassing much of the fire area (California Division 1, North Coast Drainage) for 1948–2017. May–September 2017 mean temperatures were at record levels and approximately the same as in 2015: about 2.5°F (1.4°C) above the long-term average (Fig. 6a). The summer (May–September) precipitation was low (about 2 in.), but typical for that period (Fig. 6b). In contrast, the prior winter’s (November 2016–April 2017) precipitation for that climate division (57 in.) was approximately 20 in. above normal (Fig. 6c); as a result, the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI; Fig. 6d), which provides a measure of soil dryness, indicated only slightly drier than normal conditions for the warm season (May–September). Such a minimal difference from normal soil moisture conditions reflected a wetter than normal PDSI early in the summer, declining to drier than normal conditions by the time of the wildfire.

    Fig. 6.



    Black bolding mine
    Last edited by Sunsettommy; 09-25-2020 at 11:12 AM.
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    These fires were set by people, nature had nothing to do with it. The words "climate change" is the biggest scam on the entire population. The history of the earth has many times gone through heating up and cooling down.

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    They are talking to the wrong country.

    Air quality continues to dramatically improve in the USA.
    https://gispub.epa.gov/air/trendsrep.../#introduction

    Air Quality continues to improve under Trump despite the return of manufacturing volumes.

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    From NASA's Earth Observatory (2017)

    Researchers Detect a Global Drop in Fires



    ===

    From Watts Up With That?

    Using satellite technology, NASA determined that between 2003 and 2019, global fires have dropped by roughly 25 percent. This makes the “climate change is worsening wildfires” argument completely moot.

    Irrefutable NASA data: global fires down by 25 percent



    ===

    This is modeling free evidence people needs to focus on, NOT warmist/alarmist ideology, that depends on ignorance, unverified models and propaganda based lies.

    The decline has been going on for years, despite the increase of the much feared CO2 bogeyman in the air.
    Last edited by Sunsettommy; 09-25-2020 at 12:04 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by barb012 View Post
    These fires were set by people, nature had nothing to do with it. The words "climate change" is the biggest scam on the entire population. The history of the earth has many times gone through heating up and cooling down.
    Read, "How a surge of lightning strikes ignited more than 500 California wildfires."

    Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Friday close to 12,000 strikes over a 72-hour period caused more than 560 new wildfires in the state.

    https://www.redding.com/story/news/l...ca/3413807001/

    Changes of global mean temperature greater than about 0.3 degrees C are the result of some external perturbation causing the change. In the past, there was at least 1 perturbation

    responsible for the change just as there is now. Many of the global cooling and heating transitions that the earth has experienced prior to 1750 are understood moderately well.

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    The main problem that I have with this thread is the title. There may be no or little correlation between climate change and many wildfire occurring in the Far Western U.S. during this year and

    other years but there is no way to conclude that there is No Correlation Between Climate Change And Wildfires In California – Or Anywhere Else On Earth. There are many factors that influence wildfire activity

    that makes analysis of the causes
    difficult. Some of what I have read here regarding the lack of correlation between wildfires in coastal California and Oregon in the year 2017 and 2020 is persuasive, but there are counter

    arguments by many other scientists that point to human influence.



    This is from Carbon Brief

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-climate-change-is-affecting-wildfires-around-the-world

    Among the research analysed are several “attribution” studies. “Attribution” refers to a fast-growing field of climate science that aims to quantify the “fingerprint” of climate change on extreme-weather events, such as wildfires, heatwaves and floods. (Both Otto and Kirchmeier-Young’s studies are examples of attribution, for example.)
    Analysis by Carbon Brief finds that, by the end of 2019, there had been 11 studies published that look into the role of climate change in single wildfire events. Out of these studies, 10 conclude that the fires analysed were made more likely or more severe by climate change.
    However, it is worth noting that all of these studies were carried out in either North America or Australia – with, again, no research looking into the role of climate change in fire hotspots, such as central Africa or southeast Asia.


    One reason why few wildfire attribution studies have been carried out is that fire risk is affected by multiple meteorological factors, says Kirchmeier-Young.
    These include temperature and rainfall, but also wind speed, which can influence the pace at which fires can spread, and soil moisture, which can influence the size of wildfires.
    With so many different factors to consider, it can make it difficult to come up with a study framework that encompasses the whole picture of how climate change is affecting the probability and severity of a fire event, she says:
    “Attribution generally requires you to define the event that you’re looking at. With a heatwave, you may look at maximum temperatures over a particular area, which you can easily get from a climate model. But with fire, there are a lot more variables that come into play – such as temperatures, precipitation levels, wind speed – and that can be a little more challenging.”
    The complicated mix of factors affecting fire risk can also make it more difficult to source data, particularly in developing world regions, adds Otto:
    “You can’t really do an attribution study if you don’t have decent observations. For fire, things like wind and soil moisture are also important, and in many parts of the world you have absolutely no observations for those variables.”


    This is from the American Geophysical Union.

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001210#eft2577-bib-0100.


    Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California


    Abstract

    Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increase in summer forest‐fire extent. Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4 °C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of summer forest‐fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between VPD and summer forest‐fire area strongly suggest that nearly all of the increase in summer forest‐fire area during 1972–2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate change effects on summer wildfire were less evident in nonforested lands. In fall, wind events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires. Among the many processes important to California's diverse fire regimes, warming‐driven fuel drying is the clearest link between anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire activity to date.

    In this study we evaluated the various possible links between anthropogenic climate change and observed changes in California wildfire activity across seasons, regions, and land cover types since the early 1970s. The clearest link between California wildfire and anthropogenic climate change thus far has been via warming‐driven increases in atmospheric aridity, which works to dry fuels and promote summer forest fire, particularly in the North Coast and Sierra Nevada regions. Warming has been far less influential on summer wildfire in nonforest areas. In fall, the drivers of wildfire are particularly complex, but warming does appear to enhance the probability of large fall wildfires such as those in 2017 and 2018, and this effect is likely to grow in the coming decades.
    Importantly, the effects of anthropogenic warming on California wildfire thus far have arisen from what may someday be viewed as a relatively small amount of warming. According to climate models, anthropogenic warming since the late 1800s has increased the atmospheric vapor‐pressure deficit by approximately 10%, and this increase is projected to double by the 2060s. Given the exponential response of California burned area to aridity, the influence of anthropogenic warming on wildfire activity over the next few decades will likely be larger than the observed influence thus far where fuel abundance is not limiting.





    Last edited by skepticalmike; 09-26-2020 at 05:04 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sunsettommy View Post
    From NASA's Earth Observatory (2017)

    Researchers Detect a Global Drop in Fires



    ===

    From Watts Up With That?

    Using satellite technology, NASA determined that between 2003 and 2019, global fires have dropped by roughly 25 percent. This makes the “climate change is worsening wildfires” argument completely moot.

    Irrefutable NASA data: global fires down by 25 percent



    ===

    This is modeling free evidence people needs to focus on, NOT warmist/alarmist ideology, that depends on ignorance, unverified models and propaganda based lies.

    The decline has been going on for years, despite the increase of the much feared CO2 bogeyman in the air.
    A decline in global wildfires by 25% from 2003 to 2019 doesn't mean that climate change isn't correlated with area burned by wildfires in some regions of the world like Canada and Australia.

    70% of the world's fires occur in the African continent and most of those fires are started intentionally for land-clearing and agriculture.

    From the Carbon Brief,

    "However, recent years have seen an increase in the conversion of savannah to agricultural land as nations seek to feed sub-Saharan Africa’s rapidly growing population. With less wild savannah left, sub-Saharan Africa has seen a decline in the number of large wildfires, says Santin."

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    Alps surprised by early snowfall, Swiss town sees new record

    Weather is not climate, but heavy snows will help the midlatitude glaciers in the area grow.

    Parts of Switzerland, Austria and Germany were surprised by unseasonably early snowfall overnight, after a sharp drop in temperatures and heavy precipitation.


    The Swiss meteorological agency said Saturday that the town of Montana, in the southern canton (state) of Valais, experienced 25 centimeters (almost 10 inches) of snowfall — a new record for this time of year.


    Authorities were out in force across mountainous regions in the two Alpine nations to clear roads blocked by snow and ice.
    In parts of Austria, snowfall was recorded as low as 550 meters (1,805 feet) above sea level.

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