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Thread: Why New York’s in a Depression and Texas Isn’t & Shapes of Recovery

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    Why New York’s in a Depression and Texas Isn’t & Shapes of Recovery

    My interest here is mainly in shapes of recovery.

    Why New York’s in a Depression and Texas Isn’t

    In the first few months of the Covid-19 pandemic, the conventional wisdom was that economic recovery hinged on controlling the disease. For a while, that appeared to be the case, with the economies of most states feeling similar levels of pain as consumers, businesses and public officials took measures to slow the spread of the virus.

    But as August state employment data show, recovery is happening faster in states whose economies are less tied to in-person services, not states that have performed better on controlling the virus. As we await the rollout of vaccines, we should expect better virus control to improve the economic fortunes of any community. But we should also expect states with economies that rely more on logistics, manufacturing and construction to outperform economies heavier on services, no matter what their public health performance is.

    ...While economies in the Northeast and California may remain in a depression well into 2021, parts of the rest of the country are transitioning into more of a modest recession. Geography has become just one more way in which we're experiencing a K-shaped recovery....
    So a K-shaped recovery?

    Shapes of Recovery

    K-shaped must indicate some areas recovering, some not.
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

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    I didn't see a depiction of a K shaped recovery, but I'd be inclined to believe a part of the country will see a W (Northeast, Northwest and down the west coast) where the mid states, and Southeast will likely see a U. A lot, however, will depend on the outcome of the election.
    "I believe there are more instances of the abridgement of freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments by those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." -- James Madison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Collateral Damage View Post
    I didn't see a depiction of a K shaped recovery, but I'd be inclined to believe a part of the country will see a W (Northeast, Northwest and down the west coast) where the mid states, and Southeast will likely see a U. A lot, however, will depend on the outcome of the election.
    Right, K is an odd shape.
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

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