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Thread: Interactive electoral college predictor

  1. #1
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    Interactive electoral college predictor

    Interactive electoral college predictor

    Who will win?

    you decide who wins battle ground states, and this will tell you who wins.

    https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...battlegrounds/


    “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the
    rest to me and the Republican congressmen”
    --Donald Trump

    Speaking to the Justice Department on Dec. 27, 2020. Conversation memorialized in then-acting Deputy Attorney General Richard Donoghue’s contemporaneous notes.



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    the only problem with this is its polling .
    .
    on the phone what one will say and what they will do in person is often different
    a lot of liberals are not energized and wont actually vote

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    I don't remember the thread title, but a week or so ago someone members took a lot of time to analyze the battleground states, and several of those predictions looked better than what we see in polling data. Perhaps they could use that tool above.
    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ


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    Quote Originally Posted by bulletbob View Post
    the only problem with this is its polling .
    .
    on the phone what one will say and what they will do in person is often different
    a lot of liberals are not energized and wont actually vote
    You dont have to use the polling data provided in the tool. That's just provided for convenience. You are the one who decides who wins the Battleground states.


    “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the
    rest to me and the Republican congressmen”
    --Donald Trump

    Speaking to the Justice Department on Dec. 27, 2020. Conversation memorialized in then-acting Deputy Attorney General Richard Donoghue’s contemporaneous notes.



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    carolina73's Avatar Senior Member
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    The polls are getting tighter. Pollsters also generally change from registered to likely voters in their surveys. CBS polls were not even restricted to registered voter. Quinnapiac will not change and remain a higher spread.

    The polls themselves are tightened and if you just look at the popular vote then CA and NY themselves account for 6% of the 6.5% popular vote advantage for Biden.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carolina73 View Post
    The polls are getting tighter. Pollsters also generally change from registered to likely voters in their surveys. CBS polls were not even restricted to registered voter. Quinnapiac will not change and remain a higher spread.

    The polls themselves are tightened and if you just look at the popular vote then CA and NY themselves account for 6% of the 6.5% popular vote advantage for Biden.
    I've been looking at individual battleground states. The way I determine who will win a state is that if Biden has less than a 5 point lead then I assume Trump will win the state. if Biden has a 5 point or greater lead, I give it to Biden. Using this system I have Biden winning with 274 ECVs.
    Last edited by TheLiquidGuy; 09-25-2020 at 05:13 PM.


    “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the
    rest to me and the Republican congressmen”
    --Donald Trump

    Speaking to the Justice Department on Dec. 27, 2020. Conversation memorialized in then-acting Deputy Attorney General Richard Donoghue’s contemporaneous notes.



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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLiquidGuy View Post
    I've been looking at individual battleground states. The way I determine who will win a state is that if Biden has less than a 5 point lead then I assume Trump will win the state. if Biden has a 5 point or greater lead, I give it to Biden. Using this system I have Biden winning with 274 ECVs.
    I have it very close as well. I don't see anyone getting 300.

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    I can't see how any State that has a big business connected to fossil fuels, can vote for Biden. People like to say Trump lies, but explain how Biden hasn't lied about ...he will enforce the Green New Deal, but no oil workers will lose their jobs??? why would our black citizens vote for Biden, when they have had the best ...ever...job growth and with the opportunity zones have been able to even start their own businesses???

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    I have it going to Biden 278-260.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carolina73 View Post
    I have it very close as well. I don't see anyone getting 300.
    When I reduce Biden's win margin requirement from 5% to 4% he wins with 278 ECVs

    When I increase Biden's win margin requirement from 5% to 6% he loses. Trump wins with 284 ECVs


    I was using the poll data provided on the web page though.

    When I use the current RCP polling average and the 5% rule, Trump wins with 280 ECVs.


    “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the
    rest to me and the Republican congressmen”
    --Donald Trump

    Speaking to the Justice Department on Dec. 27, 2020. Conversation memorialized in then-acting Deputy Attorney General Richard Donoghue’s contemporaneous notes.



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