Interactive electoral college predictor

[zelmo1234]

Our Distribution business takes us through the Mid West. Because of the riots, I believe that Trump will win WI, MI, MN fairly easily. Iowa, and Texas I think are very funny that is people lying to the pollsters which I have done myself, I loved watching the MSM have a total and complete meltdown I am hoping that this time they actually will jump or move.

GA and FL I also don't think are as close as predicted

I have Trump over 290 most likely 306

[carolina73]

When I reduce Biden's win margin requirement from 5% to 4% he wins with 278 ECVs

When I increase Biden's win margin requirement from 5% to 6% he loses. Trump wins with 284 ECVs


I was using the poll data provided on the web page though.

When I use the current RCP polling average and the 5% rule, Trump wins with 280 ECVs.

I have Trump at 273 so there is no cushion there. The 6% is really based more on the popular vote so I'm not sure what part the poll bias itself is which was about 3% in 2016 and that would say Biden today.

BTW. You map link is not working anymore. CNN has one.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/el...teractive-maps

[TheLiquidGuy]

I have Trump at 273 so there is no cushion there. The 6% is really based more on the popular vote so I'm not sure what part the poll bias itself is which was about 3% in 2016 and that would say Biden today.

BTW. You map link is not working anymore. CNN has one.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/el...teractive-maps

“Poll bias” —good term.

I calculated the 2016 poll bias for these individual battleground states. The bias is not consistent. To my surprise, the bias isn’t always in favour of Hillary. It ranges from 6.57% for Hillary to 3.2% for Donald.

I think it will be more accurate to apply these individual biases state by state. Imma make a spread sheet when i get home. Maybe i will link to it.

[carolina73]

Our Distribution business takes us through the Mid West. Because of the riots, I believe that Trump will win WI, MI, MN fairly easily. Iowa, and Texas I think are very funny that is people lying to the pollsters which I have done myself, I loved watching the MSM have a total and complete meltdown I am hoping that this time they actually will jump or move.

GA and FL I also don't think are as close as predicted

I have Trump over 290 most likely 306

My problem is that almost everyone that I talk to are pro-Trump so I have no idea who these voters for Biden are. The only Biden voters that I know are a few late aged woman, that sound just like the woman on The View. They are spitting venom when they talk about Trump. I just laugh at them. They have no reasons that have anything to do with politics.

[TheLiquidGuy]

Here is a link to the new individualized bias corrections.

If the same bias holds today, it paints a bleak picture for Trump. Biden wins with 318 ECVs.

But, I am not ready to call this thing yet. Polling methodology may have changed. The bias differential from then may be disproportionate to today’s vote. Voter participation on both sides today is through the roof by comparison. This isn’t 2016 and there is no way to know how much carries over.

This thing is just a conversation piece until the supreme court decides who wins.



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[The Booman]

Trump is toast....again.

[Peter1469]

“Poll bias” —good term.

I calculated the 2016 poll bias for these individual battleground states. The bias is not consistent. To my surprise, the bias isn’t always in favour of Hillary. It ranges from 6.57% for Hillary to 3.2% for Donald.

I think it will be more accurate to apply these individual biases state by state. Imma make a spread sheet when i get home. Maybe i will link to it.

Right. Because of the Electoral College.

[Peter1469]

Here is a link to the new individualized bias corrections.

If the same bias holds today, it paints a bleak picture for Trump. Biden wins with 318 ECVs.

But, I am not ready to call this thing yet. Polling methodology may have changed. The bias differential from then may be disproportionate to today’s vote. Voter participation on both sides today is through the roof by comparison. This isn’t 2016 and there is no way to know how much carries over.

This thing is just a conversation piece until the supreme court decides who wins.



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I think the bulk of the cases that will be at SCOTUS (consolidated) will be about whether mail in ballots are legit or not.

[TheLiquidGuy]

I updated my spreadsheet with latest state RCP poll averages. Looks like Trump has made some gains.

Before it was:
Biden 318 seats
Trump 220 seats


But Trump has over taken Wisconsin

Now it is:
Biden 308 seats
Trump 230 seats

poll lead.jpg