Analysis: Tossup States Grow, But Biden Still Leads in Electoral College Projection
As the 2020 presidential race nears its conclusion, Democratic nominee Joe Biden remains the favorite over President Donald Trump. But in our final handicapping of the contest – our first since late September – we're tweaking a few states' outlooks in the electoral college.
A month ago, we had Biden with 290 electoral votes leaning his way, compared to 185 for Trump and 63 in the tossup category. That put Biden above the all-important 270 electoral-vote benchmark for winning the presidency.
Biden remains above 270 electoral votes in our assessment, though he's down slightly this month to 279. However, Trump has suffered an even bigger erosion, falling to 163. In turn, the tossup category has ballooned to 96 electoral votes.
Our assessment categorizes states as either Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Lean Republican, Tossup, Lean Democratic, Likely Democratic or Safe Democratic. Within each category, we've ranked the states from most likely to vote Republican to most likely to vote Democratic. The goal, after Election Day, is to be able to draw a line in the middle and have all the Republican-won states above the line and all the Democratic-won states below the line.
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