Do rally sizes equate to the likely popular vote?

[pjohns]

As someone recently noted, the size of each presidential candidate's rallies, as the election approaches, is usually a good proxy for who will win the election--at least, the popular vote.

But a reasonable counter-argument is that not that many people are enthusiastic about Joe Biden, so his rallies are really quite small; but there are many Never Trumpers who will vote for Biden, nonetheless--even though they decline to show up at his rallies.

Thoughts?

[ripmeister]

My take is rally size shows enthusiasm. How much that translates to actual votes, not sure. I'll be voting for Biden but I wouldn't attend a rally. No doubt that Trump fires people up and gets them come to the rallys.

[US Conservative]

The conventional wisdom is that higher voter enthusiasm leads to higher turnout and therefore votes on election day.

I think that will be the case on Tuesday.

[pjohns]

My take is rally size shows enthusiasm. ...No doubt that Trump fires people up and gets them come to the rallys.

Yes, rally size does, indeed, show enthusiasm.

And Trump has much more enthusiasm going for him than his opponent does.

But there is also enthusiasm against him; and to just what extent the latter will nullify the former (or vice-versa), I really cannot say.

How much that translates to actual votes, not sure.

Agreed.

I'll be voting for Biden but I wouldn't attend a rally.

I have already voted for Donald Trump--more than a month ago. (I cannot stand his personality--it is obnoxious and overbearing, and he is often prone to gratuitous insulting--but I do like most of his policy choices, and his hard-nosed relationships with other countries. And it is on the latter that I base my vote.)

[Tahuyaman]

My take is rally size shows enthusiasm. How much that translates to actual votes, not sure. I'll be voting for Biden but I wouldn't attend a rally. No doubt that Trump fires people up and gets them come to the rallys.

I agree with that. I just attended a Trump rally and it was a cool event. People were happy, optimistic, upbeat and for the most part very polite.

You didn’t feel depressed and pessimistic about the future like what I’ve seen from Biden rally’s

[RichardMZhlubb]

The premise that larger rallies translates into a popular vote win is demonstrably false (just look at Trump in 2016). I also vividly remember the columns leading up to the election in 2012 in which conservative pundits declared that Romney was going to win because he had large rally crowds. It's nice to draw thousands to a rally, but it's going to take well over 70 million votes to win this election. The overwhelming majority of voters for both candidates are going to be people who have never attended a political rally.

[RMNIXON]

People like a President who is accessible and reaches out to the people. That goes back to the Whistle Stops long before we had TV, Internet, ect....It also helps people hear and see Trump without the Left Media filtering of everything he says and does. Far more honest.

Biden is playing by the same old rules as Hillary in 2016 and expecting a different result. Hardly seen in public, but spending far more money on annoying negative TV spots.

[Calypso Jones]

My take is rally size shows enthusiasm. How much that translates to actual votes, not sure. I'll be voting for Biden but I wouldn't attend a rally. No doubt that Trump fires people up and gets them come to the rallys.

No it is not in that order. People hear he is coming..they want to be there. They love him. Joe is a crooked sob who runs a crime family that will destroy this country.

[Private Pickle]

I don't think so. I think it's more a form of entertainment than anything else. Trump is an entertainer. Biden is not. Going to a Trump rally is probably a lot more fun...

[Tahuyaman]

...I also vividly remember the columns leading up to the election in 2012 in which conservative pundits declared that Romney was going to win because he had large rally crowds....

I don’t recall that. I recall that they thought Romney would win because the ACA was very unpopular then as were Obama’s economic policies. Plus his foreign policy was a disaster. It had nothing to do with the size of a rally.

In fact on the right there was little to no enthusiasm for Romney’s campaign. A significant number of conservatives stayed home for his election.

If your memory was accurate, you’d remember that Romney lost an election which was previously thought to be impossible to lose.