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Thread: Climate Scientists Debunk Point of No Return Paper Everyones Freaking Out About

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    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
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    Climate Scientists Debunk Point of No Return Paper Everyones Freaking Out About

    Sometimes climate scientists are skeptical.

    Climate Scientists Debunk Point of No Return Paper Everyones Freaking Out About

    On Thursday, a new study came out warning that even if we stopped emitting carbon dioxide, the world has reached the point of no return for climate change. The paper claims thats because Arctic permafrostcarbon-rich, permanently frozen earth made of rocks, water, and dead wildlifeis melting irreversibly, and it could continue to heat the planet for centuries by releasing carbon dioxide. Terrifying, right?

    ...To be frank, the paper is crap that should not have passed any competent peer review, Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and energy systems analyst, said. Its an interesting thought experiment, but its results should be taken with extreme skepticism until more complex Earth System Models produce similar results.

    The problems with the study begin with its title, which refers to the melting of permafrost. Thats a red flag because as Merritt Turetsky, an ecologist who directs the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado, Boulder, noted, permafrost thaws rather than melting.

    ...Even before getting into the body of the study, the authors credited made me lift my eyebrows. Theyre not climate scientists, theyre business school professors....
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    Tahuyaman (11-15-2020)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Science is all about being skeptical. It's not about consensus. Once there is complete consensus, science stops. There should be a separation of science and politics.

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    Chris (11-15-2020),Peter1469 (11-15-2020)

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    Wonder how much this crap has cost.


    So, this sees the light of day. Here.

    It will never come out in the media unscathed.
    Last edited by Lummy; 11-15-2020 at 12:32 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tahuyaman View Post
    Science is all about being skeptical. It's not about consensus. Once there is complete consensus, science stops. There should be a separation of science and politics.
    Absolutely there should be. Unfortunately, the government has come to play a major role in financing science. It doesn't work except as a political device.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    .

    Most of the time climate scientists are skeptical and I don't believe the claim that everyone is freaking about this report. The author's weren't climate scientists so they were not qualified to do a climate study. I don't know why they didn't consult some reputable climate scientists so that they wouldn't mislead the public or embarrass themselves. They used a flawed climate model..

    Here is one paragraph: "The purpose of this article is to report that we have identified a point-of-no-return in our climate model ESCIMO—and that it is already behind us. ESCIMO is a “reduced complexity earth system” climate model5 which we run from 1850 to 2500. In ESCIMO the global temperature keeps rising to 2500 and beyond, irrespective of how fast humanity cuts the emissions of man-made greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The reason is a cycle of self-sustained melting of the permafrost (caused by methane release), lower surface albedo (caused by melting ice and snow) and higher atmospheric humidity (caused by higher temperatures). This cycle appears to be triggered by global warming of a mere + 0.5 C above the pre-industrial level."


    Also, I would like to post something reported at The Carbon Brief by Zeke Hausfather, "2020 on course to be warmest on record". 2020 is also year of a deep solar minimum in which there were 100 days with no sunspots.

    While this year will be memorable for many reasons, it is now more likely than not that 2020 will also be the warmest year for the Earth’s surface since reliable records began in the mid-1800s. This is all the more remarkable because it will lack any major El Nio event – a factor that has contributed to most prior record warm years. However, with three months remaining, there is still some uncertainty. There is a chance that a growing La Nia in the tropical Pacific may drive cooler temperatures leading to a second-place finish – at least in some of the global temperature records produced by different groups of researchers around the world.The first nine months of the year saw record concentrations of major greenhouse gases – CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide – in the atmosphere. Arctic sea ice extent was at record low levels for much of the summer and the summer minimum clocked in as the second lowest on record after 2012. While climate records are a useful benchmark to highlight the warming of the planet, the change in temperatures, sea ice and other climate factors over time are much more important than if any single year sets a new record. There has been a clear warming trend over the past 50 years, along with hints in some datasets of potential acceleration in recent years. Similarly, both sea ice extent and volume are clearly declining over time.
    Last edited by skepticalmike; 11-18-2020 at 04:32 AM.

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