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Thread: Venezuela quietly admits Socialism does NOT work

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cotton1 View Post
    No. I think share prices will drop when inflation picks up and it will. That's what economies do. They expand and contract. When inflation heats up interest rates rise. When rates rise substantially the markets will drop in a like manner. Stocks are not selling as high as they are now because they are actually worth it. P/E ratios prove that. Stocks are priced at this rate because compared to other assets that compete for capital they are worth more than the other asset as a haven for capital. I'm not a doomsayer at all. I'm just realistic and I understand what I'm looking at. Right now as the markets go I'm in green energy ETFs because of libtards . Thanks liberals. You hug a tree. I'll make money I'm in fossil fuel ETFs because the green energy bs will cause fossil fuels to rise . Thanks again liberals lol I'm in a retail pharmaceutical simply because of the aging of America and another specific stock I don't want to tell name because it's household name and I would not want them to think I'm endorsing it at these prices. None of this is difficult . If one can apply logic and add numbers together it's common sense. Btw. Stocks will not go to zero lol. There's always a market and the cheaper they get the more attractive they are to funds, institutions etc. My thoughts on the market ? (US) If we have a shtf scenario we could do a fibbonacchi 2 retrace from the 2008 lows from the last disaster from the current artificially high prices created btartificially low rates. The longer term scenario that I think has a good probability of occuring has a very good probability if the US has 8 years of Democrats and increasingly socialist. The scenario is "stagflation ". That's when you have slow to zero or negative economic growth coupled with high inflation. Imo that is the scenario with the highest longer term probability. A fibonacchi 2 retrace from here would take the Dow from roughly 30,000 down to about 15-16000. A fibo 1 can occur for a mere hiccup when stocks are priced perfect world scenario like now. That would take us to about 20-21000. It would actually be healthy for the market as it would transfer corporate shares into stronger hands Pardon my lack of brevity
    Your quoting from theory has has been true about economic events up until (probably) the GFC in 2008........but the world that those theories pertain to , no longer exists......the game has changed considerably , and it won't be going back to what it was . You can call it whatever you like , but overall , I think it's the inevitable evolution of a better system than what the world has been using for many years now.........and Bitcoin (or blockchain technology) will be a huge part of that emerging system . The way Nigeria has approached Bitcoin , and used it , is very, very interesting - well worth some investigation .
    Last edited by PJL; 02-19-2021 at 12:56 AM.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by PJL View Post
    Your quoting from theory has has been true about economic events up until (probably) the GFC in 2008........but the world that those theories pertain to , no longer exists......the game has changed considerably , and it won't be going back to what it was . You call it whatever you like , but overall , I think it's the inevitable evolution of a better system than what the world has been using for many years now.........and Bitcoin (or blockchain technology) will be a huge part of that emerging system .
    I agree with you for the most part but I'm not quite as bearish on the US as you are.

    Where you and I differ is I'm going to find a way to benefit from whatever situation arises.

    Last year the day Covid crisis was seriously addressed as a "national emergency " and the markets went to hell quickly I shorted the US Dollar against the Jap Yen and cleared the tables lol

    I just thought it was a good trade and I thought I would make some money in it but it turned into a heck of a windfall.

    I simply detached myself emotionally from everything while everyone else panicked. I learned to do that long ago is how I did my job.

    Typically it was business as usual. But when all hell broke loose I had to keep it together while the clients freaked out lol

    I could see the markets were coming unwound at the seams that day. I started thinking "I can back door this and make some money"

    I looked at the dollar and it was just sitting there but was beginning a negative divergence. Honestly, I thought "this is too easy. A layup. Don't do it "

    Then I decided WTH this is worth the risk even if I get my ass kicked .

    I put the trade on and it went crazy.

    Panic has a domino effect
    I'm yo.
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  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cotton1 View Post
    I agree with you for the most part but I'm not quite as bearish on the US as you are. Where you and I differ is I'm going to find a way to benefit from whatever situation arises. Last year the day Covid crisis was seriously addressed as a "national emergency " and the markets went to hell quickly I shorted the US Dollar against the Jap Yen and cleared the tables lol I just thought it was a good trade and I thought I would make some money in it but it turned into a heck of a windfall. I simply detached myself emotionally from everything while everyone else panicked. I learned to do that long ago is how I did my job. Typically it was business as usual. But when all hell broke loose I had to keep it together while the clients freaked out lol I could see the markets were coming unwound at the seams that day. I started thinking "I can back door this and make some money" I looked at the dollar and it was just sitting there but was beginning a negative divergence. Honestly, I thought "this is too easy. A layup. Don't do it " Then I decided WTH this is worth the risk even if I get my ass kicked . I put the trade on and it went crazy. Panic has a domino effect
    Well , there's always a silver lining somewhere , even when the clouds are darkest . I'm in manufacturing , so I stick with what I know....but it's been good to me , and that continues......I don't really speculate a great deal on anything- my passion is to keep doing things better , which is an endless pursuit . When I lose interest , I'll retire......but I'm more interested now than ever before..(lol)

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by PJL View Post
    Well , there's always a silver lining somewhere , even when the clouds are darkest . I'm in manufacturing , so I stick with what I know....but it's been good to me , and that continues......I don't really speculate a great deal on anything- my passion is to keep doing things better , which is an endless pursuit . When I lose interest , I'll retire......but I'm more interested now than ever before..(lol)
    My deal is I retired from the rat race part but my passion for financials continues to grow. I just got tired of dealing with people at the retail end.

    All last year I had that one USD spec trade and a synthetic neutral elsewhere but thats it. With the uncertainty of everything I mostly wanted to play defense.

    All year I was on the defensive. But then my Bitcoin I bought in 2018 started rallying. I just rode that horse and sold a small amount of it on the way up but not all of it.

    In December I started buying altcoins' too.

    But last month and this month I've been very active trading.

    But I'm in a good rhythm right now and I've been blessed so it's time to slow the day trading.

    I'm going to continue holding BTC unless we have a huge change in the fundamentals.

    What is different this year is I've been building a minor to moderate position in altcoins' . I'm planning to hold those and will move around in them some but I've identified the 2 alts I think have vast potential and I'm going to try to hold most of it because it's not only a good long term play but a slight hedge when a divergence occurs in relation to BTC.

    I'm just trying now not to screw up what I've done

    I don't want to start being greedy because it clouds judgement just as fear does. I'm in a cautious mode now.



    I can hedge
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  5. #45
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    I'm quite busy at present , but it's all domestic demand......what I'm looking forward to , is when the borders start opening up a bit more , and I can start testing out using Bitcoin (and other crypto currencies ) as payment for exports , by direct transaction . I see this as the future . The interesting thing will be to see how governments react with the increasing use of Bitcoin . There's only two paths that I think governments can go.....that's forward into a prosperous future , or backwards into a corrupt and failed past . There will certainly be a lot of institutional corruption exposed for all to see , and those people have no place to hide anymore .

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