Global governments are not on track to meet CO2 emission target by 2030

[skepticalmike]

A new synthesis report by the UN indicates that the global CO2 emissions will decline by just 0.5% by 2030 relative to 2010 levels. The goalis to reduce CO2 levels by 45% below 2010 levels in the year 2030 in order to limit the global mean temperature to 1.5 degrees C. above pre-industrial levels. We are at about 1.1 degrees C. above pre-industrial levels now and a global mean temperature (GMT) that rises above 1.5 degrees C.and stays above 1.5 degrees C. is not considered safe.

One reason for this post is to counter the naive argument that science and capitalism will solve the problem and that government action is not needed.

Here is an article to read by the BBC: https://www.yahoo.com/news/climate-c...132255007.html

This is from the NDC synthesis report:

https://unfccc.int/process-and-meeti...is-report#eq-5

The Parties’ total GHG emissions are, on average, estimated to be:

:By 2025, 2.0 per cent higher than the 1990 level (13.77 Gt CO2 eq), 2.2 per cent higher than the 2010 level (13.74 Gt CO2 eq) and 0.5 per cent higher than the 2017 level (13.97 Gt CO2 eq);

•By 2030, 0.7 per cent lower than in 1990, 0.5 per cent lower than in 2010 and 2.1 per cent lower than in 2017.

According to the SR1.5, to be consistent with global emission pathways with no or limited overshoot of the 1.5 °C goal, global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions need to decline by about 45 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050. For limiting global warming to below 2 °C, CO2 emissions need to decrease by about 25 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030 and reach net zero around 2070. Deep reductions are required for non-CO2 emissions as well. Thus, the estimated reductions referred to above fall far short of what is required, demonstrating the need for Parties to further strengthen their mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement.

[skepticalmike]

This diagram is from the Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement and it illustrates how difficult it will be to achieve a

GMT of less than 2.0 degrees C., and nearly impossible to achieve the 1.5 degree C. goal. A few nations in the world have made some progress in

reducing carbon emissions, primarily in the European Union. The Paris Agreement was never nearly enough to achieve a 50% or better

probability of meeting a 1.5 degree or 2.0 degree goal. As you can see, it will require a Paris-increased ambition effort to meet a safe goal.

[skepticalmike]

With the current pledges and targets of the Paris Agreement plan, the GMT is projected to be at 2.6 degrees C above pre-industrial levels in the year 2100. That is a very dangerous level.

The gold colored curve looks realistic and it would involve a 55% reduction in carbon emissions by the year 2050 and about about an 83% reduction in carbon emissions by 2100. Those are

reductions from the peak value, assuming we are near a peak.



Most of the governments in the world are preparing a plan for net zero carbon emissions by the year 2050 and some countries already have a plan in place. Russia and Brazil have no plan and

aren't interested at the present time. China is preparing a plan to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by the year 2060. Finland, Austria , and Iceland have more aggressive targets. There

seems to be real momentum in the world to prevent a climate crisis.



https://www.ecowatch.com/paris-agree...#rebelltitem14







Countries with legislation or proposed legislation to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.









The world's 6 largest emitters of carbon dioxide account for 67% of the total emissions

[skepticalmike]

I need to correct the 3rd sentence of the 1st paragraph. It should read, "the gold curve looks realistic and it would involve a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by the year 2055 and

about a 74% reduction in carbon emissions by 2100."

[carolina73]

Fake goal created by fake models. The US is the only industrialized country actually reducing CO2 emissions at all.

You need to fly to China and India to preach to them. They are thrilled with coal prices and laugh about it. Meanwhile, the Globalist want to send our production to China where they remain unregulated and you want to make it easier to do that by increasing our power costs in the USA.

Get something that works first. We do not believe your models or the goals.

[countryboy]

A new synthesis report by the UN indicates that the global CO2 emissions will decline by just 0.5% by 2030 relative to 2010 levels. The goalis to reduce CO2 levels by 45% below 2010 levels in the year 2030 in order to limit the global mean temperature to 1.5 degrees C. above pre-industrial levels. We are at about 1.1 degrees C. above pre-industrial levels now and a global mean temperature (GMT) that rises above 1.5 degrees C.and stays above 1.5 degrees C. is not considered safe.

One reason for this post is to counter the naive argument that science and capitalism will solve the problem and that government action is not needed.

Here is an article to read by the BBC: https://www.yahoo.com/news/climate-c...132255007.html

This is from the NDC synthesis report:

https://unfccc.int/process-and-meeti...is-report#eq-5

The Parties’ total GHG emissions are, on average, estimated to be:

:By 2025, 2.0 per cent higher than the 1990 level (13.77 Gt CO2 eq), 2.2 per cent higher than the 2010 level (13.74 Gt CO2 eq) and 0.5 per cent higher than the 2017 level (13.97 Gt CO2 eq);

•By 2030, 0.7 per cent lower than in 1990, 0.5 per cent lower than in 2010 and 2.1 per cent lower than in 2017.

According to the SR1.5, to be consistent with global emission pathways with no or limited overshoot of the 1.5 °C goal, global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions need to decline by about 45 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050. For limiting global warming to below 2 °C, CO2 emissions need to decrease by about 25 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030 and reach net zero around 2070. Deep reductions are required for non-CO2 emissions as well. Thus, the estimated reductions referred to above fall far short of what is required, demonstrating the need for Parties to further strengthen their mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement.

You cite global government failure to meet some arbitrary, nonsensical goal, and then, in the same breath, cite the necessity for government intervention. Good grief man, use your head for something other than a Che Guevara style beret rack.

[skepticalmike]

You cite global government failure to meet some arbitrary, nonsensical goal, and then, in the same breath, cite the necessity for government intervention. Good grief man, use your head for something other than a Che Guevara style beret rack.

The Paris Agreement allows for each nation to determine its own plan to reduce carbon emissions. Some countries have had a plan and are making progress. Many other countries like some of

the world's largest carbon emitters have not passed legislation to reduce carbon emissions. So, most of the 196 state parties that signed the Paris Agreement just made non-legally binding

pledges to reduce carbon emissions. Even if all of these nations had made progress consistent with what they pledged to do, that would not have been enough for the world to be on a path of a

GMT below 2 degrees C. by the year 2100.

I didn't realize how little progress has been made to reduce global carbon emissions but I think that is about to change.


From Wikipedia -Paris Agreement:


A pair of studies in Nature have said that, as of 2017, none of the major industrialized nations were implementing the policies they had envisioned and they have not met their pledged emission reduction targets,^[98] and even if they had, the sum of all member pledges (as of 2016) would not keep global temperature rise "well below 2 °C"