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Thread: As Russian Tanks Move Toward Ukraine, The Globe Braces For World War 3

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    I don't think Trump disapproved of the Ukrainians fighting the rebels / Russians in Donbass.
    The Donbass is a classic lose/lose proposition for those actually doing the fighting............the only possible beneficiary would be military industrial , or some phukt up deepstate plan to provoke Russia . Since the maiden coup , Ukraine have been just another US Puppetshow.....The world grows tired of this kind of Bulls Hit .
    Last edited by PJL; 04-03-2021 at 05:03 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PJL View Post
    The Donbass is a classic lose/lose proposition for those actually doing the fighting............the only possible beneficiary would be military industrial , or some phukt up deepstate plan to provoke Russia . The world grows tired of this kind of Bulls Hit .
    Ukraine would disagree since ceding that territory to Russia would represent a good chunk of their country.

    But it also shows the stupidity of NATO and the West interfering in the Ukraine. Here is a post I wrote years ago (2014 I think from a hotel room adjacent to the London Eye) on the issue:

    This is a follow-up to my previous comments and readers may wish to re-read that post before moving on with this one.

    Polly, I point you to your comment:

    Quote- X: “The memory of the catastrophic WW2 Nazi invasion is no joke or trivial thing in Moscow.”


    That describes the core of my position. The Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and today’s Russia based their grand strategy (defensive) on the fact that there are no natural land barriers to invasion. Focusing on the western borders, the Great European Plain has been an historical invasion route from Western Europe into Asia (a well as the reverse). Since there are no natural barriers to invasion, Russia must have depth. In the past Russia achieved this by annexing territory, or otherwise controlling it.


    During the Cold War NATO was 1600 kilometers from St. Petersburg. With the end of the Cold War and the accession of the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) to NATO that distance dropped to 160 kilometers. Depth…. That leaves Belarus and Ukraine as buffers (and Belarus is solid pro-Russia).Ukraine is 480 kilometers from Moscow at its closest point. Depth…. Return to the quote above and you will see what drives Russia today. It isn’t the paranoia that western media blames Putin’s behavior on: it is history and geography.[Hat-tip to STRATFOR for the distances.]


    Today, Russia can easier achieve this depth through soft power- i.e. diplomatic pressure, economic treaties, etc. This is why I don’t think that Russia will invade Ukraine (beyond Crimea, I will address that later). If Russia does invade Ukraine it is not to annex it, but rather to use it as a diplomatic pawn to give away for other concessions (and perhaps to end the conflict with public approval on its side). [Added today- one of Russia’s main goals in Syria is to obtain concessions in Ukraine.]


    So Russia’s goal is for Ukraine to remain an independent state, although with deep internal divisions that render it neutral in the West – East debate. Even better, Ukraine would elect another pro-Russian government. But what Russia will not allow is a strong pro-Western government, and most certainly not a government which seeks NATO membership. That, to Russia, is an existential threat and a casus belli for war.


    About Crimea: Russia still feels disrespected by the West. Russia didn’t need Crimea to secure its Black Sea Fleet; Russia has a long-term lease securing that base. The Crimean people and government are very pro-Russian, so Russia didn’t need to annex it. Russia did it for Russian pride. It was a calculated risk that the west wouldn’t go to war over Crimea (historically Crimea is Russian anyway). I don’t think that Russia will take that same risk with Ukraine; although the west is unlikely to respond militarily, Russia doesn’t want to have to rule over the pro-western portions of Ukraine. And as I argue above, they don’t need to and they can’t afford it.


    So, no, I don’t think that the Cold War has started again. I think that

    Russia is looking for her depth.
    Last edited by Peter1469; 04-03-2021 at 05:10 AM.
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    That's a post that I can only totally agree with .

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    Perhaps, the Ukraine president did say he wanted to retake Crimea. I don't suppose he will try with all of the Russia tanks and troops nearby.

    Kremlin Says Military Movements Near Ukraine Are Defensive, Pose No Threat


    THE Kremlin said on Thursday that recent Russian troop and military hardware movements near Russia's borders with Ukraine were aimed at ensuring Moscow's own security and were not a threat to anyone.

    Ukraine's commander-in-chief this week accused Moscow of building up forces near their shared border and said that pro-Russian separatists were systematically violating a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine amid rising tensions.






    On Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call that Moscow moved its troops around Russia as it saw fit.




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    Quote Originally Posted by PJL View Post
    Russia isn't a major threat because they choose not to be . Their concern is totally geared towards their own defense , and the defense of their allies .
    Russia a threat due to its hybrid warfare. And its because they choose to be. If their concern was geared towards their own defense. Then they wouldnt be in the ME, Africa, Latin America, Asia, and the Artic. With their actions geared at impacting US vital Interests and Securities. Putin and the Kremlin's belief is that the US must be contained and constrained. Which is hardly defensive.
    History does not long Entrust the care of Freedom, to the Weak or Timid!!!!! Dwight D. Eisenhower ~

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    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    Russia a threat due to its hybrid warfare. And its because they choose to be. If their concern was geared towards their own defense. Then they wouldnt be in the ME, Africa, Latin America, Asia, and the Artic. With their actions geared at impacting US vital Interests and Securities. Putin and the Kremlin's belief is that the US must be contained and constrained. Which is hardly defensive.
    Well Russia's Far East Arctic region is Russian territory and always has been . (lol) Apart from that , since the Soviet Union ceased to be , Russia has never been in any country without being either invited or welcomed.......including Crimea .

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    The Drivers of Russia’s Arctic Policy .

    "Russian interest in the Arctic has deep historic roots that extend all the way to the sixteenth century and the conquest of Siberia driven by the never-ending quest for more resources and secure trading routes." .....https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/0...tion-pub-84181 ......the US has it's own Arctic Region

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    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    Russia isnt a major threat? They have surpassed our Navy and now have 351 ships. They are allied with China who has 624 ships. As opposed to our 289. Their Air Force is Equal to ours. Their tanks are better. We have better artillery. Their cruisemissiles are ahead of us in that game. Our Special Forces are better and of course the Rangers are better than most of their Army. They have the advantage with anything in Eastern Europe.


    They are a threat allied with China and that is where Biden is pushing them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Admiral Ackbar View Post
    And the Woke left wants to turn our military into a bunch of girlie man soy boys by making them woke. This doesnt end well
    The Chinese have a great well trained standing Army. In close combat I would hate to see what decades of softness and PC rules have done to our forces.

    Please note that is not meant as a personal insult to the many fine combat ready men dedicated at all levels, but what is happening at the top!

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    Quote Originally Posted by PJL View Post
    Well Russia's Far East Arctic region is Russian territory and always has been . (lol) Apart from that , since the Soviet Union ceased to be , Russia has never been in any country without being either invited or welcomed.......including Crimea .
    Georgia?
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