What If China Launched A Surprise Attack On The U.S. Military?

[Peter1469]

These two articles are pure speculation. A what if.

I don't think the US chances are as bleak as many do in a fight over Taiwan. But it all depends on how the US fights such a conflict. If done rashly we could well lose.


What If China Launched A Surprise Attack On The U.S. Military?- Part 1

In recent years there has been an increase in the saber-rattling from Beijing regarding their willingness to use force to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. There has been a concurrent rise in the willingness – and in some cases eagerness – of various advocates in Washington to extend security guarantees to Taipei to thwart Chinese ambitions.

A sober analysis of the geographic and military realities at play in the Taiwan scenario, however, reveals that if America went to war with China to stop the invasion, we would not only fail to prevent Taiwan’s capture, but could suffer such egregious losses that our position as the preeminent global superpower would be permanently lost.

The following is a depiction of how a fight between the United States and China might unfold if China were to Taiwan and we entered the conflict on Taipei’s side. It does not address the likelihood that China will attack nor look at the conditions that might spark such a war. Yet it does examine how such a fight would likely unfold, given the doctrines, force sizes, and level of readiness each side would possess.

The Road to War (the real situation)

Read the entire article at the link.

[Peter1469]

Why Joe Biden Must Avoid A U.S.-China War Over Taiwan

- Part two

If China finally decides to use force to reunify Taiwan, its objectives will not be to engage in an all-out war with the United States – nor any other country in the region – but to subdue Taiwan with the least cost and least escalation. What follows is an assessment of the cost-benefit calculations that would have to be made in Beijing, Washington, and the capitals of U.S. allies in the region should China’s forceable attempt to reunify Taiwan include taking out specific U.S. military targets in Japan.

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Hard Assessment of the Cold Facts – and the one path that could preserve our power

I’ve heard many argue that this is like 1938 and China successfully taking Taiwan would be analogous to Hitler’s conquest of Czechoslovakia or Poland; let Beijing successfully capture Taiwan, and like Hitler before him, Xi will then roll over the rest of Asia in a conquest spree. That is a badly flawed analogy and ignores whole categories of major differences.

The argument implies that the United States should choose to fight to prevent Taiwan’s fall so that we don’t have to fight a larger war later. But that is a badly misplaced aspiration and exposes the advocates’ significant lack of understanding of the military fundamentals involved.

As this article has shown, fighting China over Taiwan gives every military advantage to Beijing and exposes our every disadvantage: our supply lines are thousands of miles long; China’s are virtually non-existent. We would have only a small portion of our combat power to battle China while their entire navy, air, and missile forces would be pitted against us. China would be fighting for a highly-charged emotional issue; many in America would ask why we’re paying such a premium price to defend someone else’s country.

However, if we retain the idea of strategic ambiguity and give China reason to believe that we would not fight them over Taiwan, Beijing would be more likely to avoid directly attacking U.S. military targets in the opening salvo. In that case, China would still eventually wear down Taiwanese defenses and succeed, but in the aftermath, their forces would be considerably weakened from their current state.

[MMC]

The Chinese would get away with it.....with Democrats in Power. Todays Democrats would give up knowing they can't get Black Lying Marxists and Aunty Fa involved.

[PJL]

These two articles are pure speculation. A what if. I don't think the US chances are as bleak as many do in a fight over Taiwan. But it all depends on how the US fights such a conflict. If done rashly we could well lose. What If China Launched A Surprise Attack On The U.S. Military?- Part 1 Read the entire article at the link.

It's 2021.....there is no longer any such thing as "surprise attacks" ......even a 1st strike nuke would not be a surprise attack .

[Peter1469]

It's 2021.....there is no longer any such thing as "surprise attacks" ......even a 1st strike nuke would not be a surprise attack .

First strike sound better?

[PJL]

It's 2021.....there is no longer any such thing as "surprise attacks" ......even a 1st strike nuke would not be a surprise attack .

[Peter1469]

What I did find interesting- at the end of the second part, the author basically said if the US stood back while China invaded Taiwan, Taiwanese forces would greatly degrade the Chinese military and it would take a very long time for China to rebuild. During that time the US would have an advantage.

[PJL]

The Chinese would get away with it.....with Democrats in Power. Todays Democrats would give up knowing they can't get Black Lying Marxists and Aunty Fa involved.

By all accounts , China is well placed to defend themselves if attacked , so have no need to attack anyone .Apparently , their military is on alert , locked and loaded.....so they just get on with business as usual and let the US play the games .

[Peter1469]

By all accounts , China is well placed to defend themselves if attacked , so have no need to attack anyone .Apparently , their military is on alert , locked and loaded.....so they just get on with business as usual and let the US play the games .

I don't expect anyone plans to attack China either. The issue is whether China will invade Taiwan.

[PJL]

I don't expect anyone plans to attack China either. The issue is whether China will invade Taiwan.

Doubtful , I think . . It's obvious that the US is doing their utmost to provoke China into it......and I think it's also obvious that China won't take the bait...... Taiwan isn't going anywhere .