It is likely that the Taliban will restart offensive operations against US troops in Afghanistan if they don't leave by May 1. That will make it hard for them to leave by Joe's* deadline of September 11. But as many have pointed out, Joe* has always been wrong on foreign policy. No reason to believe he would get it right now.
Trump could gain from Biden's decision to delay withdrawing from Afghanistan
President Joe Biden is reportedly set to announce that U.S. troops will be out of Afghanistan by Sept. 11, breaking the agreement the Trump administration signed with the Taliban promising a complete withdrawal by May 1.
This might seem like a short-term extension that simply allows Biden to negotiate better terms that do more to stabilize the U.S.-allied Afghanistan government from the Taliban after an American exit. But staying beyond the May deadline risks escalation on the part of the Taliban that, in turn, could potentially draw the United States into more years of conflict. There is, therefore, no guarantee that the 20th anniversary of the attack on the twin towers will actually be the end of America’s longest war.
While people have debated what staying in Afghanistan would mean for the fate of that country and the U.S. military, it’s not too early to also consider what the political implications of the president’s decision might be — and why they, too, argue for keeping to the May timeline.
Biden has got to where he is by being a good politician. Throughout the presidential election and the first few months in office, he has succeeded by sticking close to the center and focusing on the economic issues on which Democrats have popular support. So, it’s surprising to see him extend the stay in Afghanistan when he has an ideal window for a departure.
Biden wants to keep U.S. forces in Afghanistan a little longer — but out of harm’s way — to head off the political headache that would come with a collapse of the Afghanistan government. That outcome is likely after a May 1 withdrawal because the departure of U.S. troops is all but certain to strengthen the Taliban.
Unfortunately for him, that doesn’t seem to be an option. The Taliban stopped attacking American forces under the terms of the Trump deal, resulting in more than a year without any U.S. deaths. But the insurgent group has signaled it will begin attacking coalition troops again if they stay past May 1. So the choice is likely between leaving Afghanistan peacefully next month or again putting American forces under fire — making a withdrawal much harder to accomplish.
And even if those U.S. troops fare OK, Biden will also be placing pressure on himself to deliver a better deal than the one for which he’s derided Trump. Concerns about the consequences of the Trump arrangement focus on the possibility of a fall of the Kabul government and a Taliban takeover that would be disastrous for women’s rights. But neither of these concerns are likely to be alleviated over the next four months. In that case, Biden might feel obliged to remain longer still in search of something he can point to as an improvement over Trump’s deal that justifies a pullout.
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Originally Posted by Peter1469
