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Thread: Four Ways a China-U.S. War at Sea Could Play Out

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    Four Ways a China-U.S. War at Sea Could Play Out

    The author is an ex-Naval officer who studied China's modernization of its navy. He sees four possible flash-points that could erupt into US-China war.

    I would however caution that China relies on exports. So it might not go to war with its major trading partners.

    Four Ways a China-U.S. War at Sea Could Play Out

    I see four distinct maritime “flashpoint” zones, where the Chinese navy may potentially take military against the U.S. and its allies, partners and friends. They are the Taiwan Strait; Japan and the East China Sea; the South China Sea; and more distant waters around China's other neighbors, including Indonesia, Singapore, Australia and India.


    Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait

    The highest regional priority for the Chinese military is ensuring it can exercise sea control and power projection in the waters around Taiwan. President Xi Jinping and the Chinese leadership have sworn to bring the “renegade province” to heel. While they still hope to do so through patience — and by strangling Taipei’s international support — they will be willing to use military force if necessary. In recent congressional testimony, Admiral Phil Davidson, head of the Pentagon’s Indo-Pacific Command, said that he saw the possibility of military action “within six years.”


    The Taiwanese are carefully watching as China violates the agreement negotiated with the British in 1997 to follow a “one country, two systems” system with Hong Kong. They recognize their future within greater China would include a loss of democracy and human rights.


    With Taiwan over 8,000 miles from Hawaii but just 250 miles from the Chinese mainland, the challenges for the U.S. Navy are profound. U.S. support for Taiwan’s security is bipartisan — but the longstanding U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity,” supporting Taiwan militarily without a formal commitment to defending it, is dangerously fuzzy. It could lead to a miscalculation by the Chinese (or the Taiwanese) and set off a larger conflict.
    apan and the East China Sea

    Japan and China have a long and difficult history, including two significant military confrontations in the modern era. In the first Sino-Japanese War, begun in 1894 largely over control of Korea, a newly dynamic Japanese war machine easily defeated the fading Qing Dynasty of China. A second Sino-Japanese War began in 1937 and lasted until the end of World War II. The Japanese killed, wounded, raped and imprisoned millions. The bitterness between the two nations is palpable today.

    The South China Sea

    The South China Sea is huge, nearly half the size of the continental U.S. As you approach the coasts of the many nations that ring it, you’ll see huge clusters of coastal fishermen; oil and natural gas platforms; small tankers and breakbulk cargo vessels; and massive supertankers. It is a busy waterway; by some estimates it carries nearly 40% of the world’s shipping.


    Alongside all those maritime silhouettes, you will also see the warships of many nations — China and the U.S., to be sure, but also local combatants from Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. Other Asia-Pacific nations, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan, India and South Korea, maintain a military presence. And warships from other side of the world — France, Germany, the U.K. — routinely deploy there as well.
    India and the Indian Ocean

    ***

    Today, India is cornerstone of an emerging Indo-Pacific geopolitical alignment, known as colloquially as the Quad, along with Australia, Japan and the U.S. One of Biden’s first actions after taking office was a video summit with the other three nations’ leaders.


    It has not developed into the “Asian NATO” that some strategists envisioned. As is often the case in Asian geopolitics, it’s complicated. China is among the largest trading partners of three of the members, and there are very real differences in outlook and approach to Beijing among the group. But the Quad is increasingly touted as part of the strategic response to Chinese military activity.
    Read the entire article at the link.
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    I think China has its eyes on everything from the SE Asian countries to Indonesia and the Philippines. They are already the economic masters of the area.

    The US would be wise to begin developing much stronger relationships in South America.

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    China will, at some point declare that Americans are not welcome in its China Seas (all of them). What will we do?
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carolina73 View Post
    I think China has its eyes on everything from the SE Asian countries to Indonesia and the Philippines. They are already the economic masters of the area.

    The US would be wise to begin developing much stronger relationships in South America.
    Why? They are all coming here through our open southern border.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    This article picks up where the OP left off:

    The Right Way To Fight A Maritime War Against China


    This suggests an approach to U.S. and allied strategy vis-à-vis China for times of strife. U.S. commanders and officialdom should look to the basics of strategy, concentrating in particular on the principle of concentration. Strategic grandmasters from Carl von Clausewitz to Alfred Thayer Mahan affirm that at its most fundamental, strategy is about amassing more firepower than the adversary at the scene of battle at the time of battle. Straightforward, isn’t it? Whoever’s stronger where it matters, when it matters, wins.


    Do not withdraw from the Western Pacific under assault:



    An absentee combatant stands little chance of prevailing. The U.S. Marine Corps has been way out in front on implementing this principle in recent years, fashioning the idea that “stand-in forces” will remain in the region even during a PLA onslaught, and will do their best to make things tough on China until forces from outside can make their way into the combat zone, combine with stand-in forces, and win. They will protract the war in hopes of making Father Time their ally in the struggle. Stand-in forces are troublemakers. They should conduct themselves as stubbornly as possible.


    Keep the PLA in East Asia while stretching it out within East Asia:


    Geography is a foe to China, fettering its nautical destiny. Beijing has to fret about gaining access to the Western Pacific high seas and waters beyond from the moment a warship or merchantman casts off lines in a Chinese seaport until the time it moors in a foreign port of call. China’s misery is America’s opportunity. The United States and its allies can deliberately compound China’s access dilemma by deploying along the first island chain and barring its access to the high seas through the straits that puncture the island chain. The more PLA commanders have to worry about marine access, the more they will disperse forces along the island chain—and the less firepower they will have to concentrate at any individual flashpoint cataloged by Admiral Stavridis.


    A back-to-basics approach offers the allies their best chance of massing more combat power for a contingency than can China’s armed forces. Look to the masters of strategy for wisdom—and execute.



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    Good stuff, We have to keep in mind China has 1 billion people is Sub Saharan Africa style poverty, it relies on exports to provide what little stability it has. The CCP is concerned not about China but about it being the entity that rules China. They will probe and probe but the risk of failure in any adventure is the fall of the CCP and they are to cowardly to take that risk.
    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining"----Fletcher in The Outlaw Josey Wales

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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterVeritis View Post
    China will, at some point declare that Americans are not welcome in its China Seas (all of them). What will we do?
    That's bound to happen when you try so hard to wear out your welcome . The US should be sending trade delegations , not ships of war - which would equate to making money , not spending it .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Admiral Ackbar View Post
    Good stuff, We have to keep in mind China has 1 billion people is Sub Saharan Africa style poverty, it relies on exports to provide what little stability it has. The CCP is concerned not about China but about it being the entity that rules China. They will probe and probe but the risk of failure in any adventure is the fall of the CCP and they are to cowardly to take that risk.
    You keep clinging to this myth that the Chinese people are interested in ditching the CCP , and embracing US style democracy.....now that's a funny one (lol)

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    Quote Originally Posted by PJL View Post
    You keep clinging to this myth that the Chinese people are interested in ditching the CCP , and embracing US style democracy.....now that's a funny one (lol)
    I want to make sure on what I am hearing here. You believe the CCP is well regarded and held in high esteem by the Chinese people and that they believe the criminal thugs that run the CCP are there prefered method of government..or rather rule as I call it?

    Keep in mind the CCP has a suffocating police state built up
    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining"----Fletcher in The Outlaw Josey Wales

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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterVeritis View Post
    Why? They are all coming here through our open southern border.
    Closing the border is something that we have 3-1/2 years before we can fix.

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