I don't see China lasting much longer under any form of Communism.
Once you start having millionaires, the old Commie system dies.
It is only a factor of time now.
Anyone want to start a pool ?
I say 30 to 50 years and the you won't be able to find a hammer & sickle anywhere in the place except in the history books, or on posters on @PJL's wall.
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...but, lately, my predictions have been complete crap, so IGNORING all of the above might be everyone's best bet.
When it is not allowed to be questioned, it is not science, it is PROPAGANDA
Red Lily (05-16-2021)
More are moving into the middle class because family sizes are declining. However, demographic collapse won't necessarily make China less powerful. It will simply decrease the demand on resources. China is rapidly embracing mechanization and automation, particularly in the agricultural sector. That will ensure that they will not be adversely affected by their shrinking population and maintain their place as a major exporter of agricultural products. On the autofarm: China turns to driverless tractors, combines to overhaul agriculture | Reuters
In quoting my post, you affirm and agree that you have not been goaded, provoked, emotionally manipulated or otherwise coerced into responding.
"The difference between what we do and what we are capable of doing would suffice to solve most of the world’s problems.”
Mahatma Gandhi
Last edited by PJL; 05-16-2021 at 02:41 PM.
The strange thing about that demographic is that most of the population of rural China is now elderly. The younger people have all been migrating to the cities, hence why automating agriculture has become so important in China. Something like 64% (and climbing) of China's population now live in urban centers. Meanwhile, one of the leading causes of death in rural China is suicide often due to depression because their children moved away. It is China's goal to integrate about 70% of China's population, about 900 million people, into cities by 2025. China is also now considering raising the retirement age which is 50-55 for women and 60 for men. I presume, if the birthrate in cities declines further, as predicted, they will compensate with more technology.
In quoting my post, you affirm and agree that you have not been goaded, provoked, emotionally manipulated or otherwise coerced into responding.
"The difference between what we do and what we are capable of doing would suffice to solve most of the world’s problems.”
Mahatma Gandhi
Peter1469 (05-17-2021)
The problem for China in this respect is that a shrinking pool of workers is tasked with supporting a much larger population of elderly Chinese. China is not a rich country. The Economist asked a question in an article I read over a decade ago. It comes to mind now. Will China get old before it gets rich?
Whoever criticizes capitalism, while approving immigration, whose working class is its first victim, had better shut up. Whoever criticizes immigration, while remaining silent about capitalism, should do the same.
~Alain de Benoist
Peter1469 (05-17-2021)