China in Demographic Collapse

[Retirednsmilin308]

They have a lot of old people, and fewer young.

That was one reason they tried and failed to invent the OLD PEOPLE KILLING virus.

[Retirednsmilin308]

I don't see China lasting much longer under any form of Communism.
Once you start having millionaires, the old Commie system dies.

It is only a factor of time now.

Anyone want to start a pool ?

I say 30 to 50 years and the you won't be able to find a hammer & sickle anywhere in the place except in the history books, or on posters on @PJL's wall.

****************************

...but, lately, my predictions have been complete crap, so IGNORING all of the above might be everyone's best bet.

[Peter1469]

China sprung forward with capitalism and opened its arms to the rest of the world to grow its economy. Now it appears to be re-isolating itself to avoid losing political control.

China is now going to have to depend more on domestic growth but that will fail as they also reign in free business and put it further under control of the party.

In the end, the only thing that China has is numbers. The mean income of a person in China is the same level as the USA Poverty level.

China needs to kill off the Communist Party if they ever want to be dominant and that is the opposite direction that they are moving now. Hong Kong and Taiwan are two large thorns they are already dealing with and failing.

Actually Chinese per capita GDP is very low- around 76th in the world. Very few American poor are that poor.

[Peter1469]

China is the biggest economy in the world , and they are the major trading partner to most countries in the world . Which suggests that they have no intention to isolate themselves . China are purposely transitioning to a dominant domestic economy . Their domestic consumer market has eclipsed the US , and is now the growth market for their trading partners , including the US . There's no suggestion that the CCP intends to "reign in free business " , their stated intention is to increase it...." For the first time, the ICP finds that China’s total real (inflation-adjusted) income is slightly larger than that of the US " ..https://www.theguardian.com/business...economic-power ....

Of course Chinese domestic growth is high. As tens of millions move into the middle class- that creates massive purchasing power. But their per capita GDP is still 76th in the world.

[Dr. Who]

Of course Chinese domestic growth is high. As tens of millions move into the middle class- that creates massive purchasing power. But their per capita GDP is still 76th in the world.

More are moving into the middle class because family sizes are declining. However, demographic collapse won't necessarily make China less powerful. It will simply decrease the demand on resources. China is rapidly embracing mechanization and automation, particularly in the agricultural sector. That will ensure that they will not be adversely affected by their shrinking population and maintain their place as a major exporter of agricultural products. On the autofarm: China turns to driverless tractors, combines to overhaul agriculture | Reuters

[PJL]

The only way that will happen is if they all become REALLY GOOD swimmers. I mean really good. Those two oceans on either side of us protect us better than all the world's armies put together.

If you formed opinions based on fact , instead of media , you would accept that China's military build up is purely defensive in nature . they don't have any plans to attack anyone .....it's bad for business.

[PJL]

I don't see China lasting much longer under any form of Communism. Once you start having millionaires, the old Commie system dies. It is only a factor of time now. Anyone want to start a pool ? I say 30 to 50 years and the you won't be able to find a hammer & sickle anywhere in the place except in the history books, or on posters on @PJL's wall. **************************** ...but, lately, my predictions have been complete crap, so IGNORING all of the above might be everyone's best bet.

That may be the case , but they will do it their way and at a time and pace of their own choosing , and not with any external influence from other countries .......but the hammer and sickle will probably stay ....just to annoy people like you.

[Peter1469]

More are moving into the middle class because family sizes are declining. However, demographic collapse won't necessarily make China less powerful. It will simply decrease the demand on resources. China is rapidly embracing mechanization and automation, particularly in the agricultural sector. That will ensure that they will not be adversely affected by their shrinking population and maintain their place as a major exporter of agricultural products. On the autofarm: China turns to driverless tractors, combines to overhaul agriculture | Reuters

Except the type of demographic decline China is experiencing: working age people.

They have more elderly than they know what to do with.

[Dr. Who]

Except the type of demographic decline China is experiencing: working age people.

They have more elderly than they know what to do with.

The strange thing about that demographic is that most of the population of rural China is now elderly. The younger people have all been migrating to the cities, hence why automating agriculture has become so important in China. Something like 64% (and climbing) of China's population now live in urban centers. Meanwhile, one of the leading causes of death in rural China is suicide often due to depression because their children moved away. It is China's goal to integrate about 70% of China's population, about 900 million people, into cities by 2025. China is also now considering raising the retirement age which is 50-55 for women and 60 for men. I presume, if the birthrate in cities declines further, as predicted, they will compensate with more technology.

[Mister D]

The problem for China in this respect is that a shrinking pool of workers is tasked with supporting a much larger population of elderly Chinese. China is not a rich country. The Economist asked a question in an article I read over a decade ago. It comes to mind now. Will China get old before it gets rich?