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Thread: Obama administration scientist says climate ‘emergency’ is based on fallacy

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    Obama administration scientist says climate ‘emergency’ is based on fallacy

    This guy sounds like a "luke-warmist." I like that, but the Warmist Cult hates them worse than the "deniers."


    Obama administration scientist says climate ‘emergency’ is based on fallacy

    ‘The Science,” we’re told, is settled. How many times have you heard it? Humans have broken the earth’s climate. Temperatures are rising, sea level is surging, ice is disappearing, and heat waves, storms, droughts, floods, and wildfires are an ever-worsening scourge on the world. Greenhouse gas emissions are causing all of this. And unless they’re eliminated promptly by radical changes to society and its energy systems, “The Science” says Earth is doomed.


    Yes, it’s true that the globe is warming, and that humans are exerting a warming influence upon it. But beyond that — to paraphrase the classic movie “The Princess Bride” — “I do not think ‘The Science’ says what you think it says.”


    For example, both research literature and government reports state clearly that heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900, and that the warmest temperatures in the US have not risen in the past fifty years. When I tell people this, most are incredulous. Some gasp. And some get downright hostile.


    These are almost certainly not the only climate facts you haven’t heard. Here are three more that might surprise you, drawn from recent published research or assessments of climate science published by the US government and the UN:

    •  Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century.
    • Greenland’s ice sheet isn’t shrinking any more rapidly today than it was 80 years ago.
    • The global area burned by wildfires has declined more than 25 percent since 2003 and 2020 was one of the lowest years on record.

    Why haven’t you heard these facts before?
    Most of the disconnect comes from the long game of telephone that starts with the research literature and runs through the assessment reports to the summaries of the assessment reports and on to the media coverage. There are abundant opportunities to get things wrong — both accidentally and on purpose — as the information goes through filter after filter to be packaged for various audiences. The public gets their climate information almost exclusively from the media; very few people actually read the assessment summaries, let alone the reports and research papers themselves. That’s perfectly understandable — the data and analyses are nearly impenetrable for non-experts, and the writing is not exactly gripping. As a result, most people don’t get the whole story.
    Read the rest of the article at the link.
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    The best evidence we have of their claims is that Obama, Biden and Gore all have homes on the ocean. Who buys property on land that will be underwater in 12 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carolina73 View Post
    The best evidence we have of their claims is that Obama, Biden and Gore all have homes on the ocean. Who buys property on land that will be underwater in 12 years.
    That thought has crossed my mind too.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    This guy sounds like a "luke-warmist." I like that, but the Warmist Cult hates them worse than the "deniers."


    Obama administration scientist says climate ‘emergency’ is based on fallacy



    Read the rest of the article at the link.
    Part of the problem with Steve Koonin's analysis is that he concentrates too much on claims about extreme weather events and not enough on the probability of West Antarctica and

    Greenland destabilizing during the 21st century. Those are 2 issues that climate scientists have been very concerned about for a long time. As Greenland melts its height diminishes

    and the portions that are melting become darker. As Greenland's height diminishes the air temperature increases, causing ice melt to accelerate, which causes the height to drop

    even faster in a positive feedback process. The darker color of the melting ice absorbs more solar radiation than snow, so there is another positive feedback loop accelerating ice melt.

    There are other positive feedback mechanisms related to the growth of algae and melt water lubricating ice flow.


    Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018 | PNAS


    A 6-fold increase in ice melting into the ocean from Greenland was measured from the 1980's to the 2010-2018 period.

    We reconstruct the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet using a comprehensive survey of thickness, surface elevation, velocity, and surface mass balance (SMB) of 260 glaciers from 1972 to 2018. We calculate mass discharge, D, into the ocean directly for 107 glaciers (85% of D) and indirectly for 110 glaciers (15%) using velocity-scaled reference fluxes. The decadal mass balance switched from a mass gain of +47 ± 21 Gt/y in 1972–1980 to a loss of 51 ± 17 Gt/y in 1980–1990. The mass loss increased from 41 ± 17 Gt/y in 1990–2000, to 187 ± 17 Gt/y in 2000–2010, to 286 ± 20 Gt/y in 2010–2018, or sixfold since the 1980s, or 80 ± 6 Gt/y per decade, on average


    From Inside Climate News

    Going, Going ... Gone: Greenland’s Melting Ice Sheet Passed a Point of No Return in the Early 2000s - Inside Climate News

    Other research suggests that, in previous geologic eras, nearly the entire Greenland Ice Sheet melted when global temperatures were near today’s levels, showing that even the thickest, coldest parts of Greenland are vulnerable to just a few degrees of warming.


    When all Greenland’s ice melts, it will raise sea level by 20 feet. That could take 10,000 years, but jolts to the climate system like the glacier acceleration in the early 2000s, combined with the effects of the growing spread of ice-darkening algae and black carbon, the amount of meltwater saturating of the snow atop the ice or changes in ocean currents flowing near the glaciers could speed that up by thousands of years, Howat said. When a tongue of ice breaks free from its seafloor anchor, the flow of the glacier above it accelerates.

    “If climate warming continues, technically the ice sheet is doomed,” said Greenland ice researcher Jason Box, with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, who was not involved in the new study.
    Ice loss would accelerate even more once the top of the ice sheet, which rises to 10,000 feet above sea level, melts down to a lower and warmer level of the atmosphere. Only a long series of very cold years could stabilize the ice, Box said. “What matters more is the climate trajectory, Is there any chance of cooling in the foreseeable future?”

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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    Part of the problem with Steve Koonin's analysis is that he concentrates too much on claims about extreme weather events and not enough on the probability of West Antarctica and

    Greenland destabilizing during the 21st century. Those are 2 issues that climate scientists have been very concerned about for a long time. As Greenland melts its height diminishes

    and the portions that are melting become darker. As Greenland's height diminishes the air temperature increases, causing ice melt to accelerate, which causes the height to drop

    even faster in a positive feedback process. The darker color of the melting ice absorbs more solar radiation than snow, so there is another positive feedback loop accelerating ice melt.

    There are other positive feedback mechanisms related to the growth of algae and melt water lubricating ice flow.


    Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018 | PNAS


    A 6-fold increase in ice melting into the ocean from Greenland was measured from the 1980's to the 2010-2018 period.

    We reconstruct the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet using a comprehensive survey of thickness, surface elevation, velocity, and surface mass balance (SMB) of 260 glaciers from 1972 to 2018. We calculate mass discharge, D, into the ocean directly for 107 glaciers (85% of D) and indirectly for 110 glaciers (15%) using velocity-scaled reference fluxes. The decadal mass balance switched from a mass gain of +47 ± 21 Gt/y in 1972–1980 to a loss of 51 ± 17 Gt/y in 1980–1990. The mass loss increased from 41 ± 17 Gt/y in 1990–2000, to 187 ± 17 Gt/y in 2000–2010, to 286 ± 20 Gt/y in 2010–2018, or sixfold since the 1980s, or 80 ± 6 Gt/y per decade, on average


    From Inside Climate News

    Going, Going ... Gone: Greenland’s Melting Ice Sheet Passed a Point of No Return in the Early 2000s - Inside Climate News

    Other research suggests that, in previous geologic eras, nearly the entire Greenland Ice Sheet melted when global temperatures were near today’s levels, showing that even the thickest, coldest parts of Greenland are vulnerable to just a few degrees of warming.


    When all Greenland’s ice melts, it will raise sea level by 20 feet. That could take 10,000 years, but jolts to the climate system like the glacier acceleration in the early 2000s, combined with the effects of the growing spread of ice-darkening algae and black carbon, the amount of meltwater saturating of the snow atop the ice or changes in ocean currents flowing near the glaciers could speed that up by thousands of years, Howat said. When a tongue of ice breaks free from its seafloor anchor, the flow of the glacier above it accelerates.

    “If climate warming continues, technically the ice sheet is doomed,” said Greenland ice researcher Jason Box, with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, who was not involved in the new study.
    Ice loss would accelerate even more once the top of the ice sheet, which rises to 10,000 feet above sea level, melts down to a lower and warmer level of the atmosphere. Only a long series of very cold years could stabilize the ice, Box said. “What matters more is the climate trajectory, Is there any chance of cooling in the foreseeable future?”
    Ah, yes. The bot that shows up as soon as someone types in Global Warming.

    Cut and paste paragraphs follow.


    Skeptical Mike needs to be building an Arc.

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    There was rapid warming in Greenland from 1920 to 1930 that is comparable to the warming in Greenland in recent decades which caused a similar amount of surface mass loss. Koonin is right about that.

    After around 1933, Greenland began to cool and it wasn't until around 1990 that Greenland's summers became hotter than 1933. There are natural factors as well as anthropogenic factors

    affecting Greenland's summer temperatures and what we should be concerned about is what the future will be like. We should be concerned about the loss of Arctic sea ice during the late

    summer months and the potential for warmer winds to melt Greenland at a faster pace, along with the positive feedback processes that will accelerate Greenland's meltdown.



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    Hurricanes are getting stronger and there is evidence that humans are increasing sea surface temperatures where hurricanes form and make land fall. The evidence may not be compelling enough

    to state with a high degree of certainty that this is happening but it is at least strongly suggestive of a link.

    Long-term data show hurricanes are getting stronger -- ScienceDaily


    In almost every region of the world where hurricanes form, their maximum sustained winds are getting stronger. That is according to a new study by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Center for Environmental Information and University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, who analyzed nearly 40 years of hurricane satellite imagery.


    A warming planet may be fueling the increase.
    "Through modeling and our understanding of atmospheric physics, the study agrees with what we would expect to see in a warming climate like ours," says James Kossin, a NOAA scientist based at UW-Madison and lead author of the paper, which is published today (May 18, 2020) in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
    The research builds on Kossin's previous work, published in 2013, which identified trends in hurricane intensification across a 28-year data set. However, says Kossin, that timespan was less conclusive and required more hurricane case studies to demonstrate statistically significant results.
    To increase confidence in the results, the researchers extended the study to include global hurricane data from 1979-2017. Using analytical techniques, including the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique that relies on infrared temperature measurements from geostationary satellites to estimate hurricane intensity, Kossin and his colleagues were able to create a more uniform data set with which to identify trends.

    "Our results show that these storms have become stronger on global and regional levels, which is consistent with expectations of how hurricanes respond to a warming world," says Kossin. "It's a good step forward and increases our confidence that global warming has made hurricanes stronger, but our results don't tell us precisely how much of the trends are caused by human activities and how much may be just natural variability."
    This work was supported by NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Climate Program Office.




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    If the climate is getting warmer, why are the winters getting colder?
    Liberals are a clear and present danger to our nation
    Pick your enemies carefully.






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    Quote Originally Posted by Captdon View Post
    If the climate is getting warmer, why are the winters getting colder?
    Don't confuse the bot. He is not done with his cut and paste propaganda.

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    The article below is from a recent paper and is somewhat of a worse case scenario for Antarctica. The science concerning the future of Antarctica in a warmer world is far from settled.

    During the Eemian Age (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) The global mean temperature was about 1 to 2 degrees C higher than today. Sea levels were 6 meters to 9 meters higher and

    part of West Antarctica melted into the ocean. That warm period was caused by a greater amount of solar radiation incident on the N. Hemisphere resulting from changes in the Earth's

    orbit. A 1 - 2 degree C. increase in the GMST could lead to similar increases in sea level.

    Antarctica is headed for a climate tipping point by 2060, catastrophic melting if carbon emissions aren't cut quickly (phys.org)


    Scientists have long known that the Antarctic ice sheet has physical tipping points, beyond which ice loss can accelerate out of control. The new study, published in the journal Nature, finds that the Antarctica ice sheet could reach a critical tipping point in a few decades, when today's elementary school kids are raising their families.


    The new study shows that if emissions continue at their current pace, by about 2060 the Antarctic ice sheet will have , it shows, and by 2100, sea level could be rising more than 10 times faster than today.

    Antarctica has several protective ice shelves that fan out into the ocean ahead of the continent's constantly flowing glaciers, slowing the land-based glaciers' flow to the sea. But those shelves can thin and break up as warmer water moves in under them.

    As ice shelves break up, that can expose towering ice cliffs that may not be able to stand on their own.
    There are two potential instabilities at this point. Parts of the Antarctic ice sheet are grounded below sea level on bedrock that slopes inward toward the center of the continent, so warming ocean water can eat around their lower edges, destabilizing them and causing them to retreat downslope rapidly. Above the water, surface melting and rain can open fractures in the ice.
    When the ice cliffs get too tall to support themselves, they can collapse catastrophically, accelerating the rate of ice flow to the ocean.


    The study used computer modeling based on the physics of ice sheets and found that above 2 C (3.6 F) of warming, Antarctica will see a sharp jump in ice loss, triggered by the rapid loss of ice through the massive Thwaites Glacier. This glacier drains an area the size of Florida or Britain and is the focus of intense study by U.S. and U.K. scientists.
    To put this in context, the planet is on track to exceed 2 C warming under countries' current policies.
    Other projections don't account for ice cliff instability and generally arrive at lower estimates for the rate of sea level rise. While much of the press coverage that followed the new paper's release focused on differences between these two approaches, both reach the same fundamental conclusions: The magnitude of sea level rise can be drastically reduced by meeting the Paris Agreement targets, and physical instabilities in the Antarctic ice sheet can lead to rapid acceleration in sea level rise.


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