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Thread: Biden’s economy signals return of higher misery index

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    Biden’s economy signals return of higher misery index

    Not the misery index is rising again. Why? Inflation, much of it caused by Administration* policies.

    Biden’s economy signals return of higher misery index


    Surprise! Surprise! Surprise! This past week, the Fed chairman and other Fed governors finally acknowledged what many of us have been writing and saying for months — and that is the rise in inflation may not be all that temporary or mild. The money supply last year grew at record rate — five or six times the normal annual increase. So, what did they think would happen with all of that additional money sloshing around?

    Advocates of the New Monetary Theory argued that increases in the money supply no longer mattered, and if inflation did happen to rise, Congress could raise taxes to correct it. Others argued that due to the pandemic, people were not spending very much, and so the increase in the money supply was resulting in an increase in savings, which was not inflationary.


    But now, as the economy reopens, people are spending their increased savings, including the government payments that most everyone received. The spending surge, coupled with the reopenings, has resulted in “temporary” surges both in the demand for labor as well as for goods and services.

    Those old enough to remember the inflation of the 1970s will recall it as not a pleasant experience. Art Okun (1928-1980), an influential economist at the time, developed the “misery index” which was the sum of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. Everyone understands the misery that inflation and unemployment cause, whereas numbers like GDP growth rates are often harder to comprehend.

    The accompanying table shows the misery index number at the end of each administration. At the end of the Carter administration, the misery index had reached a record high (19.7) which was instrumental in his defeat by Ronald Reagan. By the third year of the Trump administration (just before the pandemic), the misery index had fallen to the lowest level (5.8) in more than a half century, and that was the primary reason most observers thought that former President Trump would be reelected. But then came the pandemic — which caused the misery index to jump to 8.1, higher than when Obama left office (6.8).


    Presidents are not held particularly responsible for the level of the misery index, but for the change in it during their time in office. When Ronald Reagan left office, the misery index was high (9.7) by recent standards, but less than half the rate that it had been when he took office from Jimmy Carter. Everyone noticed the improvement. Wages were higher and jobs plentiful, and inflation had been cut by two-thirds.
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    At least there's no more mean tweets....
    Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect. -- Woody Hayes​

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    Quote Originally Posted by DGUtley View Post
    At least there's no more mean tweets....
    But still plenty of lying with selective presentation of statistics. (The Misery Index a year ago, under Trump, was around 16.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by RichardMZhlubb View Post
    But still plenty of lying with selective presentation of statistics. (The Misery Index a year ago, under Trump, was around 16.)
    I'm curious, Richard, what was the misery index prior to the Pandemic? Can you help me out with that?
    Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect. -- Woody Hayes​

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    Quote Originally Posted by RichardMZhlubb View Post
    But still plenty of lying with selective presentation of statistics. (The Misery Index a year ago, under Trump, was around 16.)
    Misery Index: Definition, Accuracy, History

    https://www.thebalance.com/misery-index-definition-accuracy-history-4155874
    93 rows · Feb 25, 2021 · By 2015, the index had fallen to 5.7%. As Donald Trump assumed the role of president, the misery index was in a decline due to a lowering unemployment rate and a low rate of








    Since you tried to use the Source tactic and fail miserably. Link up your uhm source.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DGUtley View Post
    I'm curious, Richard, what was the misery index prior to the Pandemic? Can you help me out with that?
    What condition was your house in before my $#@! president burned it down?

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    Quote Originally Posted by RichardMZhlubb View Post
    What condition was your house in before my $#@! president burned it down?
    Still no link from you, huh? Must be having trouble finding it. What did Google hide that info from you?
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    Still no link from you, huh? Must be having trouble finding it. What did Google hide that info from you?
    It isn't that complicated. Unemployment was around 15% last Spring. I'm sure you know that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RichardMZhlubb View Post
    It isn't that complicated. Unemployment was around 15% last Spring. I'm sure you know that.
    Yes it was.....due to the Pandemic and the US state of emergency. But as Pete's Chart shows by the end of the Period it was 8.1.


    So now how did the US Labor Dept Bureau of Labor Stats as a Source lie with its selective presentation?


    Now what was it for 2019. 2018. 2017.
    Last edited by MMC; 06-25-2021 at 08:55 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RichardMZhlubb View Post
    It isn't that complicated. Unemployment was around 15% last Spring. I'm sure you know that.
    Lockdowns enacted by states and cities put a lot of people out of work.
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