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Thread: The baby bust: How a declining birth rate will reshape the world

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    The baby bust: How a declining birth rate will reshape the world

    For one, robust social welfare programs will not be possible as the number of workers become far exceeded by the numbers of retirees.


    The baby bust: How a declining birth rate will reshape the world

    The article starts with stats on the declining birth rate of many nations in 2020- the assumption was more babies would be made during the lockdowns, because what else is there to do when locked down?

    These figures are striking taken in isolation, but represent an acceleration in a decades-long trend – one that will completely reconfigure the global economy, the international balance of power, and our intimate and personal lives. It will require fundamental social change to accommodate the diminishing size of the tax-paying, economically productive population, as well as the rising number of older people requiring pensions and social care. Even before the pandemic, the UK birth rate had fallen to record lows. Across most of the Global North, the fertility rate has for decades remained below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman; were it not for immigration, the population of almost every rich country in the world would begin shrinking.

    A paper published last year in the medical journal the Lancet predicted that the world’s population will peak at 9.73 billion in 2064, and then decline. By the end of the century, this figure will stand at 8.79 billion (two billion fewer than the UN had previously forecast), while 23 countries can expect their populations to have halved. One of the report’s authors, Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, described the findings as “jaw-dropping”.


    Policymakers have long grasped the unsurprising and yet world-changing truth that, if you give women control over their bodies and opportunities beyond the home, and if they have the resources they need to ensure their children survive infancy, they will have fewer children. And so, as women are emancipated and economies develop, countries undergo a “demographic transition”, in which life expectancy rises and family sizes fall. The unexpected part is how few children most women then choose to have.
    Why have birth rates fallen this low? Demographers speak of a “fertility trap”, in which decline becomes self-perpetuating. This is partly a mathematical phenomenon: as populations age and shrink, so too does the number of people of childbearing age. It’s partly an economic one, because of the financial burden borne by taxpayers in a country with many pensioners. It’s partly sociological: most people have a similar number of children as their peers. And then there is an elusive element: our reasons for wanting children, or not wanting them, can be mysterious even to ourselves. Why would you start a family in the middle of a plague? Why wouldn’t you?
    It’s hard to overstate how completely the world will be transformed if birth rates continue to decline. For now, immigration from lower-income countries with higher fertility rates can help wealthy countries rebalance – though, as Murray pointed out, fertility rates are eventually expected to fall almost everywhere. Some fear that falling fertility will bankrupt welfare states and depress economic growth. Others hope the world will become greener, healthier and more prosperous, with fewer mouths to feed and fewer people burning through our finite natural resources. The world will certainly become greyer, because if the Lancet’s projections are accurate, by 2100 the number of people aged over 65 will outnumber the under-twenties by 670 million. We are, several experts told me, entering the unknown.


    The article devolves into claiming that whites fear becoming a minority, but read the rest of the article if interested.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    …. because what else is there to do when locked down?….
    Drink more heavily and do more drugs then beat your wife. That’s not conducive to maintaining a healthy birth rate.
    When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.“ - Benjamin Franklin.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tahuyaman View Post
    Drink more heavily and do more drugs then beat your wife. That’s not conducive to maintaining a healthy birth rate.
    Yes, all of that increased during the lockdowns.
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    Women haven't really changed much over the years. They want a man who they believe is a positive male role model and will make a good father to their children both male and female. Over the last decade or so, males have become more feminized.


    Women are finding modern males less attractive as a male role model and father.
    Last edited by Tahuyaman; 07-11-2021 at 01:09 PM.
    When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.“ - Benjamin Franklin.


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