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Thread: The Gavin Newsom Recall Vote: My Thoughts

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    It just shows a black who doesn't run as a Dem is seen as a House Ni**er. Racism in America is from the left.
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    Excellent post IMPress Polly. Ironically a long time republican strategist explains well what happened to the republican party. If I had time I quote pages of it.

    'It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump' by Stuart Stevens

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/...-was-all-a-lie
    Wanna make America great, buy American owned, made in the USA, we do. AF Veteran P_type: Advocate INFJ-A, I am not PC.

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    Quote Originally Posted by midcan5 View Post
    Excellent post IMPress Polly. Ironically a long time republican strategist explains well what happened to the republican party. If I had time I quote pages of it.

    'It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump' by Stuart Stevens

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/...-was-all-a-lie
    Dumb article. The GOP turned into a nationalist populous party following the trend from Europe that started around 2011. Trump didn't invent it. And that is why so many Dems and independents shifted to the GOP. Especially minorities, they are Walking Away from the Dem plantation.
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    My thoughts: Democrats preach democracy. Democrats set up the very democratic recall and referendum policies of California. Democrats in practice despise democracy. We saw that in their reactions to the recall and their now changing policy. That's all. Democrats are hypocrites. All they really want is power.
    Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the government's purposes are beneficent. Men born to freedom are naturally alert to repel invasion of their liberty by evil-minded rulers. The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding.
    Louis Brandeis,Dissenting, Olmstead v. United States, 277 U.S. 438, 479 (1928)

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    To me, the significant thing about the Gavin Newsom recall effort wasn't that Newsom survived it, but that, despite the current unpopularity of President Biden and the Democratic brand overall, he didn't lose any votes compared to his original election in 2018, in which he got an unusually high 61.9%. During the first year of the Trump presidency, there were lots of special elections to fill seats vacated by Trump cabinet/staff appointees and such and Republicans predictably retained those seats, as the appointees were chosen from safely Republican areas. However, the average Republican margin in these votes through the summer was down 10 percentage points compared the preceding Republican victories therein, and that proved to be a sign of things to come. It was a sign of how the off-year elections that November would go, wherein many seats had previously been won by Republicans by margins far thinner than 10 points. And it was an indication of how the midterms the following year would go, wherein Democrats led by 8.5 percentage points overall, picking up 41 House seats for their biggest midterm victory since 1974 (the year of Richard Nixon's resignation).

    For these reasons, I'm taking the fact that there was no reduced margin for Newsom in this recall effort as the significant thing here. It's a warning to the Republican Party that they can't just keep fielding Trump-alike candidates and expect to get different results than they did during the Trump era. This outcome reveals that it was and is NOT just Donald Trump's sparkling personality, lifestyle, and tweets that people objected to, but the substance of his program and general attitude towards other people. Trumpism still fails politically even in the absence of Trump himself, and even in the absence of a popular Democratic president to boot.

    Specifically, I would highlight the issue of Covid-19. Every notable candidate vying to replace Newsom (including the Democratic ones who sought to do so, mind you) positioned themselves as softer on the coronavirus. They wouldn't be as safety-conscious or restrictive. No vaccine passports here! And maybe we should just ditch mask-wearing, especially for unvaccinated people. You know? This was the single most unifying theme among Newsom's major detractors on the ballot. This outcome hence makes it very clear -- clearer than it's ever been -- that keeping people safe from the virus is not only the right stand morally, but also remains the winning one politically. People. Want. To live. It's a reality.

    As to the Larry Elder himself, the candidate who emerged as the Newsom's principal challenger, all I can do is scoff. Polling indicated that Newsom was struggling until one Larry Elder emerged as the front-runner of the opposition. From there, Newsom was able to recast the vote not as a referendum on him, but as a referendum on the more polarizing Larry Elder instead, and Elder lost. Badly. Why? Well, illustrating why is the fact that his supporters have endlessly complained that Elder was referred to as "the black face of white supremacy." The man proposed that "reparations" payments to slave owners were called for for the loss of their property! I don't know what more they want for evidence that the man would say anything, no matter how unbelievably stupid and reactionary, to try and get the votes of white people. He also claimed on the campaign trail that employers should be permitted to fire women who become pregnant, for becoming pregnant. You can't make this $#@! up! That Republican voters seriously thought this was the best candidate tells you all you need to know about where they are as a party right now and how completely divorced from reality that party is.

    Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this.
    Yeah...Elder stood no chance in hell of winning.
    I told my wife that over and over.

    Though I disagree with you overall, I still enjoy reading what your thoughts are on a subject.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    My thoughts: Democrats preach democracy. Democrats set up the very democratic recall and referendum policies of California. Democrats in practice despise democracy. We saw that in their reactions to the recall and their now changing policy. That's all. Democrats are hypocrites. All they really want is power.

    Sadly, that is all ANY POLITICIAN or political party wants.
    They want power and they want to keep it at all costs, once they have it.
    When it is not allowed to be questioned, it is not science, it is PROPAGANDA

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    Quote Originally Posted by Retirednsmilin308 View Post
    Sadly, that is all ANY POLITICIAN or political party wants.
    They want power and they want to keep it at all costs, once they have it.
    Probably so. But then the question becomes power for what, personal interest or interest in the people. During the last election's debates, one of the highlights of the Pence/Harris debates was this. Pence repeatedly voiced the opinion he trusted in the people while Harris repeatedly voiced the opinion she knew better what the people wanted. Good leaders follow.
    Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the government's purposes are beneficent. Men born to freedom are naturally alert to repel invasion of their liberty by evil-minded rulers. The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding.
    Louis Brandeis,Dissenting, Olmstead v. United States, 277 U.S. 438, 479 (1928)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ethereal View Post
    The COVID regime is only popular among the neurotic and the power hungry. The union of those two toxic coalitions is a voting majority inside failing States like California and New York. Meanwhile, Texas and Florida have been operating normally for months now, with better performing economies and functioning societies. That is why failing States like California and New York continue to lose population and businesses to red States like Texas and Florida. The goal of conservatives going forward should be to focus their energy, not on appealing to broad majorities, but on strengthening their hold where they already have majorities in red States and counties. Ideally, they would turn red America into a fortress, against which the corrosive waves of neo-liberal insanity would crash harmlessly. But time is against conservative America. They need to act decisively and quickly before the liberal regime in DC brainwashes or bribes enough of the voters to seize total control over the country.
    Oh there's someone neurotic here alright, but it ain't people who want their loved ones to survive this nightmare, it's people like you who deny its existence.

    You have an interesting definition of "normally" because those states have some of the worst per capita Covid outbreaks in the country thanks to their bans on things like vaccine and masking requirements and their respective governors are both paying for it in the polls.

    Texas Governor Greg Abbott is currently polling the worst of his entire governorship to date and, according to the most recent survey by the Dallas Morning News, would lose to a likely challenger by 9 percentage points of next year's election for his post were held today. In fact, when you look at the chart at that first link, you can identify a point where things went downhill for Abbott permanently: right around the time he initially lifted the state's lockdown prematurely in 2020. Before that point, he'd been a popular governor in the conservative state. After that point, never again reached 50% support and his disapproval rating shot up and has remained elevated since. Conversely, his best polling, as you can also see, came immediately he briefly imposed the statewide lockdown. People may not be open to lockdowns anymore in 2021 now that we have vaccines, but they do want to sense that their leaders fundamentally care about them.

    And Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was once considered a serious presidential contender for 2024, now only breaks even in support in his state at 48% approval and disapproval after the delta variant ripped through his state this summer, resulting in a 14-point drop in support for the governor.

    Gavin Newsom's approval rating, by contrast, has trended in the opposite direction. His polling trajectory was downhill in the early summer as Covid-19 receded as an issue on people's minds and they began to concern themselves more with other problems, like rises in violent crime for example. The delta outbreak, by contrast, has helped Newsom politically, as he's seen as a real leader on the issue. His state of California currently has the lowest per capita rate of Covid transmission in the country and he just got 62% of the vote a second time. (This is the CDC's Covid tracking site. You see that one spot on their map of the country that's not completely red? That's California.)

    My point being that taking the virus seriously on the one hand and good political fortunes on the other are linked. As multiple states are now reduced to rationing life-saving hospital care for the first time in the history of this country, it's little wonder why.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 09-25-2021 at 08:37 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Common View Post
    Some observations...first Newsom enjoyed hundreds of million to fight off the recall. Pelosi called in all her chips to save her Nephew.
    The media in california hailed newsom and villified Larry Elder calling him an Uncle tom and Trump with black skin...there wasnt any positive press for elder in California.

    The republican population is down significantly people leaving california are not democrats

    Last this has nothing to do with national elections, wont make 1 iota of differnce in the 2022 midterms...Polly you need to read ALL the polls even the liberal pollsters have sounded the alarm for democrats...

    Independents are going to put the democrats down...they see AOC and the squad for what they are, they see a Pelosi who cannot tell the truth about anything...and the see biden who 70% of americans say he should not be president he doesnt have all his faculties...Harris pollls lower the Biden...

    My Opinion you are putting waaaay to much in the recall election...No one I know thought elder would win with what he was up against
    Fair enough on pointing out the massive nationalization of this election on the part of the Democrats in particular, complete with Biden and Harris and Bernie Sanders and everyone else wading in to actively prop up Newsom; an unusual development for an individual gubernatorial race. But that the Republicans were unwilling to do the same for Larry Elder says the essential thing I'm pointing out here about his toxicity as an alternative.

    As to who's leaving, yeah mostly it's wealthier people leaving California, over taxes, and I have no doubt that Republicans are disproportionately represented among that group. Many, many people object not so much to taxation specifically though as to the state's high cost of living. One's ability to afford to leave that behind though is a form of privilege. Those who can afford neither the cost of living nor the cost of leaving often wind up homeless. Decades of gentrification have yielded real problems for the state. The question then becomes whether the Republicans actually have any solutions to those problems on offer or just tax breaks for rich people.

    Is this all unrelated to next year's midterms? Could be irrelevant. Circumstances could be very different by this time next year. But this outcome suggests a model by which the Democrats might minimize the usual political damage that occurs to parties in power in midterm cycles.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ethereal View Post
    The COVID regime is only popular among the neurotic and the power hungry.
    Mask and vaccine mandates both have majority support in this country.

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