The Rus-Ukraine War in progress

[Peter1469]

It would be neat if there was follow-up on what happens to the people who travel to Ukraine to fight.

[JesusIsLord]

It would be neat if there was follow-up on what happens to the people who travel to Ukraine to fight.

https://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/366984333

This is my morning reading

[JesusIsLord]

https://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/367083224

A whole thread of Reddit screencaps like this.

redditors rekt.png

[JesusIsLord]

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-701157

ukraine mercs.png

[Peter1469]

So that base that got hit is where the foreign troops were staying- I assume waiting for assignments.

I guess the Russians have spies all over.

[JesusIsLord]

i'm not sure if it's the same base, but in the first thread I linked someone is talking about getting internet with a starlink dish, so they could all use their phones etc. I'm not a techie but wouldn't operating a whole bunch of phones purpose-built and designed to track people's movements give off your location? Also posting to reddit threads saying "hey I'm here in the base in Ukraine" with geo tags is probably bad opsec. They were finding subs with radio triangulation back in WWII, right?

[Peter1469]

i'm not sure if it's the same base, but in the first thread I linked someone is talking about getting internet with a starlink dish, so they could all use their phones etc. I'm not a techie but wouldn't operating a whole bunch of phones purpose-built and designed to track people's movements give off your location? Also posting to reddit threads saying "hey I'm here in the base in Ukraine" with geo tags is probably bad opsec. They were finding subs with radio triangulation back in WWII, right?

Right. Starlink is hackable and trackable. These guys are amateurs. If I went over there to fight, I would stay away from them.

[JesusIsLord]

Artist's rendering of action on the ground.


ukrainwarts.jpg

[Peter1469]

An interesting article about possible outcomes in Ukraine. I agree with most of the author's conclusions, but don't agree with him that the attack is going as planned.


Tell Me How Ukraine Ends

In the opening days of Iraq War 2.0, a wiser not-yet-General David Petraeus famously asked, “Tell me how this ends.” Petraeus understood that how wars end is more important than why they started. So how does the current war in Ukraine end?

Now Petraeus, for his part, has said with a straight face about the Russians, “Everyone in the entire country [Ukraine] hates them and most of the adults are willing to take action against them, whether it’s to take up weapons or to be human shields.” While accurately describing the roots of his own failure in Iraq, Petraeus misses the point. America’s goal was to create a neocon version of democracy in the Middle East. Putin seeks something much simpler: a buffer territory between him and NATO. He does not care about hearts and minds. He only has to break things.


Propaganda riven with sympathy for the plucky defenders has dominated the early days of the Ukraine war. This purposefully created a false sense of Russian setbacks and a misunderstanding of Russian strategy. The Russians are executing a standard mechanized warfare maneuver in line with their goals, attacking south from Belarus to link up with forces attacking northward from Crimea. When they link up south of Kiev, Ukraine will be split into two. Kiev may be bypassed, or it may be destroyed, but that is secondary to the larger strategic maneuver. Another Russian thrust from east to west seeks to cut the nation into quarters so Ukrainian forces cannot reinforce one another.


Forget all the silliness about the Russians running out of gas; their supply lines are short (many Russian forces are within 70 miles of their own border), protected, and over decent roads. This is what is happening on the ground and Ukrainian forces are in no position to do anything but delay it. Watching war through a smartphone from a peaceful country may help you believe the Russian assault is going poorly, but that is at odds with the facts.


So, here is how this all ends.


The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.


Putin settles back into his easy chair. His brush back pitch to the West dealt out a serious spanking, he holds some new territory as a prize, he can announce victory at home, and his now-blooded troops are better positioned if he needs to ever push west again. NATO, meanwhile, can also claim some measure of victory, validating all the propaganda about the valiant Ukrainian people. The status quo of Europe resets and oil and gas keep flowing westward.

Read the rest of the article at the link.

[JesusIsLord]

Right. Starlink is hackable and trackable. These guys are amateurs. If I went over there to fight, I would stay away from them.

just as an aside, east euros have a fascination with pirating signals and antennas. a romanian guy told me that since there was only like 1 or 2 tv or radio stations in his country, so everyone would fiddle around with antennas and tinfoil on their balconies at night, trying to pull in stations from yugoslavia etc. he was always talking about his kodi box and how many stations he could get with his flat digital antenna. hours and hours of this. interesting cultural phenomenon.