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Thread: The Rus-Ukraine War in progress

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    The Rus-Ukraine War in progress

    This will be my thread tracking the progress of the war. First article- from Niall Ferguson, author of Doom.

    The Fates of Ukraine and Putin Turn on 7 Forces of History

    On predicting history-

    What makes history so hard to predict — the reason there is no neat “cycle” of history enabling us to prophesy the future — is that most disasters come out of left field. Unlike hurricanes and auto accidents, to which we can at least attach probabilities, the biggest disasters (pandemics and wars) follow power-law or random distributions. They belong in the realm of uncertainty, or what Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his book “The Black Swan,” calls “Extremistan.” They are like tsunamis, not tides.

    What’s more, as I argued in my book “Doom,” disasters don’t come in any predictable sequence. The most I can say is that we tend not to get the same disaster twice in succession. This time we’ve gone from plague to war. In 1918, it was from war to plague. The Hundred Years’ War began eight years before the Black Death struck England.
    But the war in Ukraine was not an unpredictable event. It was not random.

    Not everything in history is random, of course. The Russian invasion of Ukraine was not difficult to foresee at the beginning of this year. You just had to take Russian President Vladimir Putin both literally and seriously when he asserted that the Russian and Ukrainian peoples were one and that the possibility of Ukraine becoming a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or the European Union was a red line; and to realize that Western threats of economic sanctions would not deter him.
    So now that war is here, now what? Some questions

    1. Do the Russians manage to take Kyiv in a matter of two, three, four weeks or never?
    2. Do the sanctions precipitate such a severe economic contraction in Russia that Putin cannot achieve victory?
    3. Does the combination of military and economic crisis precipitate a palace coup against Putin?
    I have already mentioned this elsewhere. Russia does have three branches of government, although they are different than those in the US:

    1. Putin and the official government
    2. the Oligarchs, and
    3. the military/intelligence elite.

    If we see a coup it will come from the third branch. They will not seek western assistance to do this.

    4. Does the risk of downfall lead Putin to desperate measures (carrying out his nuclear threat)?
    5. Do the Chinese keep Putin afloat but on the condition that he agrees to a compromise peace that they offer to broker?
    This is an important point. I think Putin got Xi's green-light for the invasion, and I think Xi intended to use it as a case study for a future Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I think Xi is so far disappointed so far as Taiwan goes, but can save face by playing peacekeeper in the Rus-Ukraine war if Russia fails.

    6. Does the West’s attention deficit disorder kick in before any of this?
    The emotion-based reporting may be an effort to overcome this.

    7. What is the collateral damage?
    This is the really important part for the US. Increases prices, inflation, food / stuff shortages. And more.








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    Here is a good article about the first week of the war and the planning that went into it.

    Assessing the Russian Army Performance After One Week of War


    Planning


    It appears that the Russian General Staff designed the invasion as two main operational campaigns composed of multiple Combined Arms Army (CAA) groupings. The main effort appears to be in the north to seize Kyiv along with the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The supporting effort is in the south and east; it is designed to encircle the largest concentration of Ukrainian forces that comprise the Joint Forces Operation against the two Russian-supported, breakaway republics and establish a land bridge from Crimea to Russia.

    Institute for Defense Analyses Media Team

    Given the sheer number of units pulled from across Russia for the invasion, planning for the operation would have been a central military task for the General Staff. However, as the war grinds on, we are beginning to see cracks in the Russians’ planning. The opening air and missile attacks appear to have failed to defeat the Ukrainian air force and air-defense forces. Russian logistics planning may not have accounted for fuel shortages stemming from combat losses of transport vehicles or soldier indiscipline. Russian planners also seem to have underestimated the will of the Ukrainians to fight, the effectiveness of Western anti-tank and man-portable anti-aircraft weapons, and the will of the European nations to continue arming a defiant Ukrainian state.

    Integration of Combat Multiplying Enablers


    And their is more in electronic warfare, mobility, tactical proficiency, and military staff.

    There are failing in each of these areas. Can Russia fix them? See the 7 questions in post 1.



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    Calling Russia’s Attack ‘Unprovoked’ Lets US Off the Hook


    https://fair.org/home/calling-russia...-off-the-hook/
    When Donald Trump said to protest “peacefully”, he meant violence.

    When he told protesters to “go home”, he meant stay for an insurrection.

    And when he told Brad Raffensperger to implement “whatever the correct legal remedy is”, he meant fraud.

    War is peace.

    Freedom is slavery.

    Ignorance is strength.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier8 View Post
    Calling Russia’s Attack ‘Unprovoked’ Lets US Off the Hook


    https://fair.org/home/calling-russia...-off-the-hook/
    Right. A Russian invasion was predicted if NATO kept moving east, the only question was when.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Right. A Russian invasion was predicted if NATO kept moving east, the only question was when.
    Pretty good article how this started in 2014.
    When Donald Trump said to protest “peacefully”, he meant violence.

    When he told protesters to “go home”, he meant stay for an insurrection.

    And when he told Brad Raffensperger to implement “whatever the correct legal remedy is”, he meant fraud.

    War is peace.

    Freedom is slavery.

    Ignorance is strength.

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    I certainly don't think Putin did this on his own authority. The Military and Intelligence planners had to pass on it as feasible.
    My Revenge will be Success! - Donald J Trump

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    Quote Originally Posted by RMNIXON View Post
    I certainly don't think Putin did this on his own authority. The Military and Intelligence planners had to pass on it as feasible.
    I wonder. The military professionals had to know the weaknesses. I heard one expert that said it looked they they were fighting a WWII battle plan and not a modern war.
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    I understand the arguments but I just don't accept any of Putin's reasons. There is no logic or consistency to hem other than he decided to take what he wants.
    I'm sure my lack of acceptance does not bother him.
    Let's go Brandon !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by carolina73 View Post
    I understand the arguments but I just don't accept any of Putin's reasons. There is no logic or consistency to hem other than he decided to take what he wants.
    I'm sure my lack of acceptance does not bother him.
    I posted an article in the history thread about Catherine the Great. Putin is using some of the same imagery she used in her conquest of the Ukraine Steppes (take from the Poles). Not that it matters, it is just interesting.
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    Biden warmonger.jpg

    It's almost like he wants this to happen...

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