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Thread: Can We Have Some Real Talk About Ukraine?

  1. #131
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    MisterVeritis's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by carolina73 View Post
    And then the forms come. You need a supplier number. No problem but they want to know that you conform to their Affirmative and Social standards. I said no more when they sent up an inspector for two days for about a $6000 order. He never looked at the product and had no idea what he was looking at. Normal military/government work creation for the sake of work creation. If I told you what was in the boxes then you would laugh.
    That was not the problem.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

  2. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by carolina73 View Post
    Why? Is America paying off the debt. As far as government and the left is concerned they found Bill Gates credit card. Who is saying that we need to pay for the left.

    But the high cost is also due to high waste that never makes it to Ukraine.

    I don't think Americans thought they were paying EU countries to accommodate refugees, I don't think Americans thought the were paying the military to give woke training in those spending bills. I think they thought they were just giving Ukraine weapons to fight with, to make it a fair fight.
    Let President Biden go to Congress and make his case for war.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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  4. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21 View Post
    I think there's a lot of "what's in it for us?" question down the line, as it has a lot of obvious costs that the establishment-compliant media was not going to cover honestly. We also see that Vladimir Putin isn't backing down after taking an ass beating.

    Sometimes there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Other times, you need statistics even if a little dodgy to put things into perspective:

    The madness behind the battle for Bakhmut



    Ukraine losing large number of troops as it boasts about Russian casualties


    I can't seem to find it now, but I read a report of Russian casualties being as high as 4000 per week in the Bakhmut area--basically suffering deaths each week that the US lost in Iraq in 10 years. Putin really seems to want to pay an incredibly high price for Ukraine.

    At any rate, spring is coming, and with Challenger 2, Leopard 2, and M1A2 tanks, Ukraine will be have a significant tank advantage over the Russian military. I don't see any speedy resolution to this. I think it's going to be bloody for years on end.
    One hundred tanks won't make a difference. Combined arm maneuver warfare is a skillset the Ukrainians don't have.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


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  5. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterVeritis
    One hundred tanks won't make a difference.
    It's about 300+ at this point collectively. We don't know what they are going to do with them yet. Challenger 2, Leopard 2, and M1A2 tanks all shoot at nearly twice the range of T-72+ tanks and have superior armor. They won't be doing set piece battles, but they will certainly have more ability to manuever with mechanized infantry. Russia's advantage is superior numbers. Heck, the Ukrainians could just shoot at locomotives and cause the Russians problems. The Russians are willing to pay a rather ridiculous price for Bakhmut, which tells you how much they rely on rail to supply their military. Both sides are vulnerable to civil disturbance due to the high casualty rate.
    "I get a lot of credit I don't deserve." -- Joe Biden

  6. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21 View Post
    It's about 300+ at this point collectively. We don't know what they are going to do with them yet. Challenger 2, Leopard 2, and M1A2 tanks all shoot at nearly twice the range of T-72+ tanks and have superior armor. They won't be doing set piece battles, but they will certainly have more ability to manuever with mechanized infantry. Russia's advantage is superior numbers. Heck, the Ukrainians could just shoot at locomotives and cause the Russians problems. The Russians are willing to pay a rather ridiculous price for Bakhmut, which tells you how much they rely on rail to supply their military. Both sides are vulnerable to civil disturbance due to the high casualty rate.
    Yes the Western tanks are superior, but it takes a lot more than a crash course to be a good tank crew. Especially the gunner.
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21 View Post
    It's about 300+ at this point collectively. We don't know what they are going to do with them yet. Challenger 2, Leopard 2, and M1A2 tanks all shoot at nearly twice the range of T-72+ tanks and have superior armor. They won't be doing set piece battles, but they will certainly have more ability to manuever with mechanized infantry. Russia's advantage is superior numbers. Heck, the Ukrainians could just shoot at locomotives and cause the Russians problems. The Russians are willing to pay a rather ridiculous price for Bakhmut, which tells you how much they rely on rail to supply their military. Both sides are vulnerable to civil disturbance due to the high casualty rate.
    Even 300 tanks won't matter. The Ukrainians don't know how to conduct combined arms maneuver warfare.

    Without the training those tanks are just targets.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterVeritis View Post
    Even 300 tanks won't matter. The Ukrainians don't know how to conduct combined arms maneuver warfare.

    Without the training those tanks are just targets.
    I take much more than an expedited training effort to produce a gunner that can consistently hit what he is aiming at in training, never mind combat.
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  11. #138
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    Has anyone agreed on what Ukraine winning means? This article refers to a past article (and post of mine) about the coming Russian attack- a pincer movement that could end the Ukraine army as a fighting force. The author predicts the US would get directly involved in combat inside Ukraine in the case. I certainly would oppose such a reckless move. But the author sees a direct war with Russia in Ukraine likely sooner or later. (Unless my definition of win prevails).


    To me winning for Ukraine would be a peace along the current line of conflict. But certainly that is not a win for others. Many claim that the pre-2014 borders must be restored to include Crimea, or it is a defeat- but that end result isn't possible. So,

    What Happens If Ukraine Falls?


    I recently wrote about Russian preparations for a major offensive in Ukraine: a pincer movement that would close Ukrainian forces in from the north and the south. There is now general discussion of such a move by Russia in the next months, albeit configured in many different ways, most different from mine. Still, the important issue is whether Ukraine can defeat such an attack. Over the past year, Ukraine has fared much better than expected, and Russia much worse. But major powers have the luxury of early stumbling, their size giving them the resources needed to recover from early defeats. The successes of weaker powers sometimes die on the vine. And though Russia could, in theory, hold on and send Ukraine reeling through sheer stamina, doing so would be a move of last resort. Such is the uncertainty of war.


    Belarus seems to be thinking of entering the war, and though its utility is limited, its knowledge of the balance of power in Ukraine could be beneficial to Moscow. Russian aircraft – and intelligence operatives, I suspect – are now operating in Moldova, and Romania, its neighbor and occasional protector, is on alert. Anxieties are high. France and other European countries have ordered their nationals to leave Belarus, and the U.S. has warned its citizens to leave Russia.


    If the Ukrainians can no longer resist effectively, and if the flanks represented by Belarus and Moldova are opening a path to Poland and Romania, what will the United States do? Europe will follow Washington’s lead, for better or worse. The worst-case scenario, of course, would be the war that was avoided during the Cold War. That war never happened because Russia did not have the power to engage and defeat NATO and its U.S. benefactors. The Russians were not prepared to attack given the risk of failure and the riskier, albeit unlikely, possibility of a nuclear exchange.


    Still, the U.S. must consider the risks of intervention. If Russia occupies Ukraine, it would effectively border Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. It’s no secret that President Vladimir Putin, an ex-KGB operative, considers the collapse of the Soviet Union a geopolitical catastrophe, which means he may well see the collapse of Russian power in Central Europe equally lamentable. A return to the borders of the Cold War after defeating Ukraine would go far in redeeming Russia’s geopolitical position. And it would raise the question of whether and when Russia would press farther west. It would put Europe in a position it never conceived it would be in: living with a hostile and powerful enemy at its border, and a not-always-predictable America guaranteeing its frontiers.


    Now, as always, Russian occupation of Europe would threaten U.S. control of the Atlantic – something for which Washington fought two world wars. Under those circumstances, it would more easily justify direct American intervention. After all, it would be able to maneuver more easily in Ukraine, and it would have a network of allies near and needy.


    If Ukraine’s defenses crumble, the U.S. would have to make some rapid decisions (or rapidly implement decisions already made). It could send forces into Ukraine to try to force a Russian retreat, or it could decline combat. Directly engaging Russian troops with limited force can be a long, painful and uncertain engagement. But accepting the outcome opens the door for Russia to rearrange Europe again. A second cold war would be a necessary but undesired outcome. Reinforcing Ukraine before its collapse would therefore be the lower risk and cost option.


    If Ukraine falls, the U.S. will be forced to engage Russia. Fighting directly in Ukraine will be a choice, which means doing so will be politically painful. Presidents are rarely rewarded for avoiding a threat that has not yet materialized, even if it’s inevitable.


    I am not predicting the imminent fall of Ukraine, of course. I’m simply gaming out all the options if it does fall. Prudence – and the coming Russian offensive – demands it.
    Last edited by Peter1469; 02-17-2023 at 07:00 AM.
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