User Tag List

+ Reply to Thread
Page 2 of 10 FirstFirst 123456 ... LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 92

Thread: How the Ukraine War Will Likely End

  1. #11
    Points: 34,558, Level: 45
    Level completed: 41%, Points required for next Level: 892
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    Tagger First ClassYour first Group25000 Experience PointsVeteranSocial
    Admiral Ackbar's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    5002
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Location
    United States
    Posts
    6,897
    Points
    34,558
    Level
    45
    Thanks Given
    4,270
    Thanked 4,992x in 3,109 Posts
    Mentioned
    168 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    So the West is going on a crusade to stop Vlad? What does that look like?
    It looks like a lot of dead and maimed young soldiers, Trillions of tax dollars transferred to Defense Contractors and others to rebuild what gets blown up. It looks like $$$$ for the connected politicians and good business connections for their families. It looks like a huge refugee problem. It looks like good career opportunities for talking heads in the media, former generals and experts to pontificate for big money on TV. It looks like higher gas and commodity prices for the average person and a less secure world.

    But Hey! Using elementary logics. Putin is Hilter and it is 1939. Neither of course are true.. but what the hell lets bring it for a flat piece of land that have no interest in.
    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining"----Fletcher in The Outlaw Josey Wales

  2. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Admiral Ackbar For This Useful Post:

    Ethereal (04-17-2022),JesusIsLord (04-06-2022),MisterVeritis (04-08-2022)

  3. #12
    Original Ranter
    Points: 858,855, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 91.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Posting Award
    Peter1469's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    496512
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    NOVA
    Posts
    241,630
    Points
    858,855
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    153,197
    Thanked 147,522x in 94,383 Posts
    Mentioned
    2552 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Admiral Ackbar View Post
    It looks like a lot of dead and maimed young soldiers, Trillions of tax dollars transferred to Defense Contractors and others to rebuild what gets blown up. It looks like $$$$ for the connected politicians and good business connections for their families. It looks like a huge refugee problem. It looks like good career opportunities for talking heads in the media, former generals and experts to pontificate for big money on TV. It looks like higher gas and commodity prices for the average person and a less secure world.

    But Hey! Using elementary logics. Putin is Hilter and it is 1939. Neither of course are true.. but what the hell lets bring it for a flat piece of land that have no interest in.
    I laugh when I hear Putin is invading the Baltics next. His army is collapsing in Ukraine.
    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ


  4. The Following User Says Thank You to Peter1469 For This Useful Post:

    Admiral Ackbar (04-18-2022)

  5. #13
    Points: 4,148, Level: 15
    Level completed: 20%, Points required for next Level: 402
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    1000 Experience Points1 year registered
    JesusIsLord's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    107
    Join Date
    Mar 2022
    Location
    Northern Canada
    Posts
    460
    Points
    4,148
    Level
    15
    Thanks Given
    64
    Thanked 97x in 86 Posts
    Mentioned
    6 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    So the West is going on a crusade to stop Vlad? What does that look like?
    it looks like a bunch of trannies getting smeared all over the steppes by rocket artillery.

  6. #14
    Original Ranter
    Points: 858,855, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 91.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Posting Award
    Peter1469's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    496512
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    NOVA
    Posts
    241,630
    Points
    858,855
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    153,197
    Thanked 147,522x in 94,383 Posts
    Mentioned
    2552 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by JesusIsLord View Post
    it looks like a bunch of trannies getting smeared all over the steppes by rocket artillery.
    I don't know about that. Yes the Russias have longer range fires that the US, but the US is more agile, and understands how to use joint operations to get inside the enemies decision-making cycle. We would destroy the Russian military.
    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ


  7. The Following User Says Thank You to Peter1469 For This Useful Post:

    FindersKeepers (04-06-2022)

  8. #15
    Points: 4,148, Level: 15
    Level completed: 20%, Points required for next Level: 402
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    1000 Experience Points1 year registered
    JesusIsLord's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    107
    Join Date
    Mar 2022
    Location
    Northern Canada
    Posts
    460
    Points
    4,148
    Level
    15
    Thanks Given
    64
    Thanked 97x in 86 Posts
    Mentioned
    6 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    I don't know about that. Yes the Russias have longer range fires that the US, but the US is more agile, and understands how to use joint operations to get inside the enemies decision-making cycle. We would destroy the Russian military.
    i was referring to the foreign mercenary camps.

    col macgregor on tucker carlson 3 months ago, talking about the longstanding manpower shortage of the us military. he's saying that they would be lucky to field 100,000 troops. there's also the 1100% increase in deaths among military members who took the clotshot. also getting similar info from scott ritter and indian general gd bakshi. btw canadian government is saying it sent all of our military's antitank rockets and grenades to ukraine, so we don't have any for our own country's defence. yeah.


  9. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to JesusIsLord For This Useful Post:

    MisterVeritis (04-08-2022),Orion Rules (04-18-2022)

  10. #16
    Points: 4,148, Level: 15
    Level completed: 20%, Points required for next Level: 402
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    1000 Experience Points1 year registered
    JesusIsLord's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    107
    Join Date
    Mar 2022
    Location
    Northern Canada
    Posts
    460
    Points
    4,148
    Level
    15
    Thanks Given
    64
    Thanked 97x in 86 Posts
    Mentioned
    6 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    scott ritter op-ed from 4 feb:

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/548322-war-russia-us-nato/

    As someone who once trained to fight the Soviet Army, I can attest that a war with Russia would be unlike anything the US military has experienced – ever. The US military is neither organized, trained, nor equipped to fight its Russian counterparts. Nor does it possess doctrine capable of supporting large-scale combined arms conflict. If the US was to be drawn into a conventional ground war with Russia, it would find itself facing defeat on a scale unprecedented in American military history. In short, it would be a rout.
    Don’t take my word for it. In 2016, then-Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, when speaking about the results of a study – the Russia New Generation Warfare – he had initiated in 2015 to examine lessons learned from the fighting in eastern Ukraine, told an audience at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington that the Russians have superior artillery firepower, better combat vehicles, and have learned sophisticated use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for tactical effect. “Should US forces find themselves in a land war with Russia,” McMaster said, “they would be in for a rude, cold awakening.”
    In short, they would get their asses kicked.
    America’s 20-year Middle Eastern misadventure in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria produced a military that was no longer capable of defeating a peer-level opponent on the battlefield. This reality was highlighted in a study conducted by the US Army’s 173rd Airborne Brigade, the central American component of NATO’s Rapid Deployment Force, in 2017. The study found that US military forces in Europe were underequipped, undermanned, and inadequately organized to confront military aggression from Russia. The lack of viable air defense and electronic warfare capability, when combined with an over-reliance on satellite communications and GPS navigation systems, would result in the piecemeal destruction of the US Army in rapid order should they face off against a Russian military that was organized, trained, and equipped to specifically defeat a US/NATO threat.

    The issue isn’t just qualitative, but also quantitative – even if the US military could stand toe-to-toe with a Russian adversary (which it can’t), it simply lacks the size to survive in any sustained battle or campaign. The low-intensity conflict that the US military waged in Iraq and Afghanistan has created an organizational ethos built around the idea that every American life is precious, and that all efforts will be made to evacuate the wounded so that they can receive life-saving medical attention in as short a timeframe as possible. This concept may have been viable where the US was in control of the environment in which fights were conducted. It is, however, pure fiction in large-scale combined arms warfare. There won’t be medical evacuation helicopters flying to the rescue – even if they launched, they would be shot down. There won’t be field ambulances – even if they arrived on the scene, they would be destroyed in short order. There won’t be field hospitals – even if they were established, they would be captured by Russian mobile forces.


    this is a lengthy article, well worth the read.

  11. The Following User Says Thank You to JesusIsLord For This Useful Post:

    MisterVeritis (03-19-2023)

  12. #17
    Points: 4,148, Level: 15
    Level completed: 20%, Points required for next Level: 402
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    1000 Experience Points1 year registered
    JesusIsLord's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    107
    Join Date
    Mar 2022
    Location
    Northern Canada
    Posts
    460
    Points
    4,148
    Level
    15
    Thanks Given
    64
    Thanked 97x in 86 Posts
    Mentioned
    6 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    these were the articles sourced by ritter in my post above:

    https://www.defenseone.com/technolog...russia/128460/
    incredibly sobering, and too lengthy to quote. broken down by areas in which deficits are occuring.
    Karber, the president of the Potomac Foundation, went on a fact-finding mission to Ukraine last year, and returned with the conclusion that the United States had long overemphasized precision artillery on the battlefield at the expense of mass fires. Since the 1980s, he said last October, at an Association for the United States Army event, the U.S. has given up its qualitative edge, mostly by getting rid of cluster munitions.Munitions have advanced incredibly since then. One of the most terrifying weapons that the Russians are using on the battlefield are thermobaric warheads, weapons that are composed almost entirely of fuel and burn longer and with more intensity than other types of munitions.

    “In a 3-minute period…a Russian fire strike wiped out two mechanized battalions [with] a combination of top-attack munitions and thermobaric warheads,” said Karber. “If you have not experienced or seen the effects of thermobaric warheads, start taking a hard look. They might soon be coming to a theater near you.”

    Karber also noted that Russian forces made heavy and integrated use of electronic warfare. It's used to identify fire sources and command posts and to shut down voice and data communications. In the northern section, he said, "every single tactical radio [the Ukrainian forces] had was taken out by heavy Russian sector-wide EW." Other EW efforts had taken down Ukrainian quadcopters. Another system was being used to mess with the electrical fuses on Ukrainian artillery shells, "so when they hit, they’re duds,” he said.

    Karber also said the pro-Russian troops in Donbas were using an overlapping mobile radar as well as a new man-portable air defense that's “integrated into their network and can’t be spoofed by [infrared] decoys” or flares.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/...-russia-242273
    these are just highlights but again, very telling.

    The U.S. Army’s rapid reaction force in Europe is underequipped, undermanned and inadequately organized to confront military aggression from Russia or its high-tech proxies, according to an internal study that some who have read it view as a wake-up call as the Trump administration seeks to deter an emboldened Vladimir Putin.


    The Italy-based 173rd Airborne Brigade, a bulwark of the NATO alliance that has spent much of the past decade and a half rotating in and out of Iraq and Afghanistan, lacks “essential capabilities needed to accomplish its mission effectively and with decisive speed,” according to the analysis by the brigade, a copy of which was obtained by POLITICO.

    ...

    The common thread running through the paper is the challenge posed by Russia’s jammers and other electronic warfare tools.
    An enemy equipped with these “could effectively neutralize a GPS system from 50 miles away using one-fifth the power of a tactical radio,” the report estimates, so “we should assume that GPS will be either unavailable or unreliable for the duration of the conflict if the [brigade] faces a near-peer threat or sophisticated non-state actors.”
    they even said that such banal items as camouflage nets to hide vehicles from airborne attack and surveillance are nearly impossible to come by.

  13. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to JesusIsLord For This Useful Post:

    MisterVeritis (03-19-2023),Orion Rules (04-18-2022)

  14. #18
    Original Ranter
    Points: 858,855, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 91.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Posting Award
    Peter1469's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    496512
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    NOVA
    Posts
    241,630
    Points
    858,855
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    153,197
    Thanked 147,522x in 94,383 Posts
    Mentioned
    2552 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by JesusIsLord View Post
    i was referring to the foreign mercenary camps.

    col macgregor on tucker carlson 3 months ago, talking about the longstanding manpower shortage of the us military. he's saying that they would be lucky to field 100,000 troops. there's also the 1100% increase in deaths among military members who took the clotshot. also getting similar info from scott ritter and indian general gd bakshi. btw canadian government is saying it sent all of our military's antitank rockets and grenades to ukraine, so we don't have any for our own country's defence. yeah.

    The US could contribute ~50K with other NATO nations contributing that much or more. The Russian Army is tapped out in Ukraine. Russia would never attack NATO at this point. Not conventionally.
    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ


  15. #19
    Original Ranter
    Points: 858,855, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 91.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Posting Award
    Peter1469's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    496512
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    NOVA
    Posts
    241,630
    Points
    858,855
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    153,197
    Thanked 147,522x in 94,383 Posts
    Mentioned
    2552 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    WARGAMING A LONG WAR: UKRAINE FIGHTS ON

    The article details wargames the US and NATO did on the war. They seem to have been surprised at how things have turned out- the Russian military poor performance. What about their predictions for the summer and fall? Will they be right?

    [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)]In the weeks prior to the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War, [/COLOR]Marine Corps University[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)] hosted a [/COLOR]four-day wargame[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)] to forecast the war’s course. That wargame proved remarkably prescient, accurately predicting almost all of Russia’s major combat movements in the first week of operations. As the war entered its second month, the [/COLOR]Marine Corps War College[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)] and the [/COLOR]Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Future Warfare[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)] reopened the wargame with the aim of exploring how the future fight might develop, with a particular emphasis on a national resistance scenario in a Russian-occupied Ukraine.

    [/COLOR][COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)]Our wargame’s advisors came from a variety of backgrounds and experiences, including United States military officers, representatives from NATO countries, two experts on internal Russian decision-making, and a retired Ukrainian colonel with experience on the Ukrainian general staff. The second iteration’s most significant change to gameplay was a switch from each turn representing a single day to three-month turns. This was done to allow us to play out a full year of combat operations within the time allotted to complete the wargame. Lengthening the game turn duration required a higher degree of adjudication abstraction than our previous wargame, but it proved essential to enabling players to look at broader operational and strategic considerations over the duration of a protracted conflict.

    [/COLOR]
    [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)]After applying expected geostrategic and operational developments over the remainder of this year and into the start of 2023, we determined the Russians reached an operational culmination well-short of their maximal objectives. Given the combination of Ukraine’s proven will and its capabilities in a defensive fight, the prospects for Russian forces in heavy urban combat proved daunting. By the end of the summer, Russia no longer possessed the forces to pursue major simultaneous objectives nor the combat power to conquer a major city. All was not rosy for the Ukrainians, who lacked the combat power to go on the offensive and eject Russia from the occupied territories. With neither side able to achieve decisive military effects in the offense, without exception, the combined teams predicted that without a negotiated settlement the war is headed toward an indefinite stalemate.

    [/COLOR]
    [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)]The ramifications of such an outcome are immense. [/COLOR]
    [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)]Summer and Fall 2022

    [/COLOR][COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)]Russia’s summer 2022 move prioritized political objectives to achieve iconic successes over improvements of the overall military situation. Despite increasing Ukrainian partisan activity in occupied areas, Russia launched localized and limited offensives in pursuit of these objectives. However, apart from Mariupol, these objectives proved elusive, and most of the Russian-Ukrainian front lines barely budged. The only major exception was a local Ukrainian counterattack that retook a sizable amount of territory northwest of Kyiv.

    [/COLOR]
    [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)]The major takeaway from this first move is that, despite the lack of movement, frontline attrition remained frightful. Although Russia continues suffering higher attrition rates than its opponent, Ukrainian forces are far from unscathed. The most damaging losses for the Russians are in experienced officers, troops, and armored vehicles, which are the primary targets of local counter-attacks given increasing numbers of portable antitank weapons. The wargame highlighted Ukrainian capabilities to employ killer-drones to knock out Russian vehicles, including tanks, armored personnel carriers, and self-propelled artillery. Open sources claim that Ukraine has over fifty such weapons on near-constant patrols and this number is growing. If only one drone in ten kills a vehicle each day, that equates to 150 vehicles a month and 1,350 Russian vehicles losses between now and Christmas. Moreover, the wargame-imposed daily success rate of a mere ten percent is likely a gross underestimate. Add to this the losses inflicted from thousands of anti-tank weapons and the Russians soon ran short on modern armor to support combat operations. Over the wargame’s year-long course, Russian losses in troops and vehicles approached the entire amount it had built up around the perimeter of Ukraine at the conflict’s start.[/COLOR]
    [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)]Despite our intention to devote the rest of the wargame to a possible insurgency or [/COLOR]national resistance[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)] campaign, the fact that, even if Ukraine was not winning the war, it was certainly not losing it, caused a re-evaluation. As Ukraine still had an intact, discernible, and well-manned front line, it was decided to let the wargame continue on its natural course. What was apparent to all was that the wargame was starting to parallel the situation the [/COLOR]warring parties found themselves in 1915[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)], with both sides unable to launch major offensives as manpower and munitions stocks were nearly exhausted.[/COLOR]

    [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.88)][/COLOR]
    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ


  16. #20
    Points: 174,762, Level: 99
    Level completed: 28%, Points required for next Level: 2,888
    Overall activity: 23.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteranTagger First Class50000 Experience Points
    Dr. Who's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    870666
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Gallifrey
    Posts
    69,089
    Points
    174,762
    Level
    99
    Thanks Given
    12,826
    Thanked 12,929x in 8,807 Posts
    Mentioned
    205 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    I laugh when I hear Putin is invading the Baltics next. His army is collapsing in Ukraine.
    Russia couldn't have created the USSR after WWII, if the Baltics hadn't been beaten to s**t during the war. They simply didn't have the wherewithal to go to war with Russia. Today is a much different situation.
    In quoting my post, you affirm and agree that you have not been goaded, provoked, emotionally manipulated or otherwise coerced into responding.



    "The difference between what we do and what we are capable of doing would suffice to solve most of the world’s problems.”
    Mahatma Gandhi

  17. The Following User Says Thank You to Dr. Who For This Useful Post:

    Peter1469 (04-06-2022)

+ Reply to Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts