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Thread: How the Ukraine War Will Likely End

  1. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    How much longer? How much more money?
    If the war dogs have their way it will be forever or until China defeats us in the Pacific.

    But, I hear murmurs out of the House of Representatives. It seems likely all 13 appropriations bills will be passed and signed before any increase to the debt ceiling is considered. Those appropriations bills may (will?) see steep cuts in the woke and weaponized federal government. Stopping the flow of money to Ukraine ought to be one goal.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterVeritis View Post
    If the war dogs have their way it will be forever or until China defeats us in the Pacific.

    But, I hear murmurs out of the House of Representatives. It seems likely all 13 appropriations bills will be passed and signed before any increase to the debt ceiling is considered. Those appropriations bills may (will?) see steep cuts in the woke and weaponized federal government. Stopping the flow of money to Ukraine ought to be one goal.
    I will probably turn a lovely shade of blue while holding my breath waiting for budget cuts
    Devotion to the truth is the hallmark of morality; there is no greater, nobler, more heroic form of devotion than the act of a man who assumes the responsibility of thinking.”
    Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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    Quote Originally Posted by OLD GUY IN FLORIDA View Post
    I will probably turn a lovely shade of blue while holding my breath waiting for budget cuts
    If this House wants to be historic the cuts will happen. If not it is the end of the world as we know it.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterVeritis View Post
    If this House wants to be historic the cuts will happen. If not it is the end of the world as we know it.
    Oh, MV, the world will continue limping along and America will even continue to exist. Of course neither will be the world we know, it may be the world of medieval times, with kings, lords and serfs or its Asian equivalent. It may be not unlike a "steam punk" world but rest assured it will still be a world, just one we would not be allowed to live in.
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    Quote Originally Posted by OLD GUY IN FLORIDA View Post
    Oh, MV, the world will continue limping along and America will even continue to exist. Of course neither will be the world we know, it may be the world of medieval times, with kings, lords and serfs or its Asian equivalent. It may be not unlike a "steam punk" world but rest assured it will still be a world, just one we would not be allowed to live in.
    Hence, the end of the world as we know it.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko called for a truce in Ukraine and talks between Moscow and Kyiv during an address to Belarus’ National Assembly. He proposed a settlement whereby both sides commit to not moving troops or weapons and equipment. Lukashenko also claimed frontline forces in Ukraine have already begun to negotiate.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko called for a truce in Ukraine and talks between Moscow and Kyiv during an address to Belarus’ National Assembly. He proposed a settlement whereby both sides commit to not moving troops or weapons and equipment. Lukashenko also claimed frontline forces in Ukraine have already begun to negotiate.
    Of course, Belarus is closely aligned with Russia.

    And what Russia really wants is a negotiated "settlement" that will place an official imprimatur upon Russia's land grab--which is approximately 20 percent of Ukraine.

    Do you really suppose that America would allow Mexico to take Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, New Mexico, and Colorado, just in order to achieve "peace"?

    Even if Mexico were militarily stronger than the US?

    Or do you believe that Americans would dig deeply, and fight them with all that we have?

    Well, why would you expect Ukraine to react any differently?

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    Quote Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
    Of course, Belarus is closely aligned with Russia.

    And what Russia really wants is a negotiated "settlement" that will place an official imprimatur upon Russia's land grab--which is approximately 20 percent of Ukraine.

    Do you really suppose that America would allow Mexico to take Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, New Mexico, and Colorado, just in order to achieve "peace"?

    Even if Mexico were militarily stronger than the US?

    Or do you believe that Americans would dig deeply, and fight them with all that we have?

    Well, why would you expect Ukraine to react any differently?
    When we stop sending money to Ukraine the war will end.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
    Of course, Belarus is closely aligned with Russia.

    And what Russia really wants is a negotiated "settlement" that will place an official imprimatur upon Russia's land grab--which is approximately 20 percent of Ukraine.
    Yes, Belarus is Russia's hand-puppet. Perhaps this is a trial balloon sent up by Putin through said puppet. I have said Russia can't seem to advance. The current battle-lines are likely the best Russia can achieve. Of course in negotiations, the first offer is not the final result unless the other side is already defeated.

    Quote Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
    Do you really suppose that America would allow Mexico to take Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, New Mexico, and Colorado, just in order to achieve "peace"?
    I can't imagine a scenario where the US would be in the position where this would even be a possibility.

    Quote Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
    Even if Mexico were militarily stronger than the US?
    That hypothetical has no basis in reality. That would require creating a serious alternative history (fiction) to create the background needed to answer the question.


    Quote Originally Posted by pjohns View Post

    Or do you believe that Americans would dig deeply, and fight them with all that we have?

    Well, why would you expect Ukraine to react any differently?
    Well, let's not suspend reality. The US is a superpower with nuclear weapons. The US also has over 400 million legal guns in the hands of Americans. And very sizeable number of those are semi-automatic magazine fed (30+ rounds) long guns.

    Neither Mexico nor Ukraine find themselves in that position. Both are pawns on the chess game that is geopolitics.
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    Will Ukraine’s Spring Offensive Bring Kyiv Victory – Or Set The Stage For Defeat?


    Ukraine is already critically low of available manpower and having difficulty mobilizing additional troops. It seems very unlikely that, after the losses they would incur conducting a spring or summer offensive, they would be able to muster another massive force with which to force Russia out of the remainder of their lands.


    In remarks made last weekend, Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oleskii Reznikov implied that a Ukrainian spring offensive could be imminent. Zelensky said the weapons, ammunition, and training provided to his troops from the West was crucial to enabling his country to continue resisting, but also cautioned that without more, Ukraine might lose the war. The bigger question: might even a successful spring offensive set the stage for a Ukrainian defeat?

    At the moment, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) are reported to be up to 700,000 strong. The Russian army in Ukraine could be up to 300,000. But that numerical advantage for Ukraine is deceiving. As of today, the UAF has to put meaningful numbers of troops to defend the northwest quadrant of its country opposite the Belarus border. The lifeline for the entire Ukraine society and army is dependent on keeping the western corridor open from Poland through which NATO supplies and arms flow.


    If that path is cut off, the war is all but over for Ukraine. Since Russian troops stationed in Belarus might launch a surprise attack south, Kyiv is required to keep a strong defense there. Likewise, Zelensky must keep a strong defensive border manned against a new Russian incursion in the Sumy and Kharkiv border regions. Large numbers of troops are also assigned duty to defend Kyiv.


    Meanwhile, there is an approximate 1,000km long frontline that absorbs the lion’s share of all Ukrainian troops and supplies. There are three main directions that are in round-the-clock defensive battles with Russian troops: Svatovo-Kreminna in the northeast, Bakhmut/Donbas in the central east, and Avdiivka in the south. Positioned in a safe zone in central Ukraine is approximately 80,000 UAF troops who are reportedly equipped with mostly NATO-supplied kit, have received some training from NATO countries, and are well-rested.


    Beyond the frontlines to the east, Russia continues to build elaborate defensive works. One of Russia’s biggest failures in the first year of war was their failure to prepare any defensive positions behind the frontlines. In September, Zaluzhny launched a surprise counterattack in the Kharkiv region that caught Russia completely unaware, and routed them, pushing Russia back more than 100km to the east.


    Putin’s forces had only a small number of troops in the north and had built no defensive positions in case of a counterattack. That lesson appears to have been learned. Attacking in open terrain, into well-constructed defensive positions, is a very costly affair for any attacker. Russia found out the hard way how expensive such operations are (as Wagner in Bakhmut), and Ukraine would likewise face the same challenges if it attacks Russia’s defense lines.


    But as the Washington Post pointed out in a recent analysis, the majority of the Ukrainian army that had been trained by the West from 2014-2022 has been killed or wounded, leaving a largely conscript army to do the fighting. The Ukrainians have fought ferociously and bravely thus far, which is why Wagner has yet to completely take Bakhmut. But defending trench lines and bunkers requires far less skill than an offensive. We should not be surprised if Ukraine turns out to be less effective in the offensive and to suffer more casualties than they have in the defense.


    What May Come Next

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