Amphibious operations are hard. Occupations even harder.
Taiwan invasion would be risky move for Chinese leadership, defense experts say
Read the rest of the article at the link.An effort by Beijing to invade Taiwan that provoked a U.S. response would be a “huge disaster” that could cost Chinese President Xi Jinping his job, according to an American security expert.
“Even without a U.S. military response, I seriously question the [Chinese military’s current] ability to seize and then hold the island,” Ralph Cossa, president emeritus of the Pacific Forum think tank in Hawaii, recently told Stars and Stripes in an email.
“Especially if the rest of the world responded similarly to how it has responded to [Russia’s invasion of Ukraine], with massive amounts of military aid and equipment and severe political and economic consequences for the attacker,” he said.
China could overtake Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a rebellious province, and force reunification “in the next six years,” then-Indo-Pacific Command leader Adm. Philip Davidson warned the Senate Armed Services Committee in March 2021.
But occupying the self-ruling democracy wouldn’t make China much stronger, according to Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities and Visiting Professor at Brown University.
“They would be a couple of hundred miles farther east and the Pacific is thousands of miles wide,” he told Stars and Stripes by phone Saturday.
Ukraine’s battlefield successes against invading Russian troops are likely having a sobering effect on Beijing, Goldstein said. Outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian forces are using weapons, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, supplied by the United States and its allies to extract a heavy toll on Russian invaders.
“The Chinese are watching carefully,” Goldstein said.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Common
