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Thread: The 'Energy Transition' is not visible in the data

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    The 'Energy Transition' is not visible in the data

    So Greens have spent $5T over 2 decades to lower fossil fuel use by 2%. That is criminal.

    The 'Energy Transition' is not visible in the data

    Pundits and politicians are eager to assert that there is an inevitable and accelerating “energy transition” away from hydrocarbons.

    It’s true that there are record sales of electric cars and massive plans for solar and wind installations. But a rapid transition away from the existing energy infrastructures isn’t visible in the data.


    During the past two decades, global governments have spent over $5 trillion to avoid using fossil fuels. But oil, natural gas, and coal still supply 84% of global energy, just two percentage points lower than 20 years ago. Meanwhile, burning wood supplies more global energy than solar power. Oil still fuels nearly 97% of global transportation. Crop-derived liquids supply most of the rest with batteries powering under 1%.


    But from Washington to Brussels, policymakers propose doubling down on an energy transition.
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    And they want to do more:

    Now the goal is also to delink from Russian oil and natural gas. Never mind the cost of forcing a faster transition, the narrative ignores two big wildcards: Building the hardware for transition aspirations will require an unprecedented increase in global mining at scales almost certainly unachievable in the time frames proposed, and no one accounts for increasing energy demands yet to come from the kinds of innovations everyone wants.


    On the first point: It requires more than a ten-fold increase in the use of minerals and metals to build alternative energy machines capable of delivering the same amount of energy as hydrocarbon-based machines. As the International Energy Agency (IEA) documented, energy transition plans will require a 700% to 4,000% increase in the global production of minerals such as rare nickel, copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths. One World Bank study observed that “clean energy” technologies “are in fact significantly more material intensive.” Until now, that hasn’t mattered because wind, solar and batteries still account for only a few percentage points of global energy.


    The world doesn’t have enough mines operating or planned to meet such demand. Chasing such unprecedented quantities will stress global supply chains and inflate mineral prices. That will, in turn, make anything built from those minerals more expensive, which is pretty much everything. It also inflates the price tag of the energy transition because raw materials account for at least 20% of the cost of wind turbines and 60-70% of the costs of solar panels, and batteries.
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    I didn't see a percentage of US reduction.
    Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect. -- Woody Hayes​

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    Quote Originally Posted by DGUtley View Post
    I didn't see a percentage of US reduction.
    It is global transition data.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    It is global transition data.
    I got that.
    Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect. -- Woody Hayes​

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